Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 301738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARMER...YET STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAY...IS IN STORE
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUN AND
LIGHTER WINDS THAN SEEN ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PUSH TO
NEAR 50 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S INTO WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA. A RAPIDLY APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIP
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF RAIN...THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S IN WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

STRONG UPSTREAM RECOVERY YDAY WITH TEMPS YDAY ACRS ERN IA WITH
TEMPS MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. MODIFICATION OF THIS SOURCED REGION
WITH 4-6C/24HR AT 925MB IN WRLY FLOW WAA...ALONG WITH AMPLE
INSOLATION AT LEAST INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW SFC
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE PRIOR FCST AND IN LINE WITH
GFS/EC GUID TREND WITH MET OVERSTATING STATIC LAYER STABILITY
BIASES. PRIMARY FOCUS ON ALBERTA CLIPPER TIMING/IMPACT LATER
TONIGHT ASSOCD WITH LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE DIVING RAPIDLY THROUGH
BACKSIDE OF PRIMARY ERN CONUS TROF. FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE SRLY
TRACK THAN NAM...MORE IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF. STRONGLY FORCED
ASCENT PER RAMPING 50-60KT WSWLY LLJ INTO NRN IL/ NRN IN
OVERNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH 50-70M/12HR 5H FALLS TO LIKELY SQUEEZE
MINOR PRECIP ACRS NERN THIRD CWA. DYNAMIC COOLING ALONG WITH COLD
MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET PRODUCTION...BUT
HAVE HELD FROM MENTION ATTM IN COORD TO NORTH. MAX WETBULB TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY IN 4-5C RANGE IN LWST KM LYR AND PROMOTE
GOOD MELT POTNL. FURTHERMORE...WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS GRTR THAN
SEEN SUN AFTN...ON ORDER OF 5-7KFT AGL. WL DEFER TO LATER SHIFT
ANALYSIS OF 12 UTC THERMAL/TW PROFILES IN LIEU OF MULTIPLE PTYPE
MENTION ATTM.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE PRECIPITATION WITH A DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE JUST
CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING BACK ACROSS
THE AREA PER HI RES WPC MODELS. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH DEEP
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWERED LOWS
A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT TO COME IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING AND INTO THE UPPER
20S.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL TROFS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA IN RAPID SUCCESSION. INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN
THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SECOND TROF. AS FOR CHANCES FOR THUNDER...KEPT THUNDER OUT
GIVEN VERY THIN CAPE OF LESS THEN 500 J/KG PER GFS BUFKIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT BUT
BEST FORCING LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER
FRONTOGENESIS. MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS IN POSTFRONTAL CAA
TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS
AND LACK OF SUPPORT IN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. A FEW HIGH END MVFR
STRATOCU MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


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