Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 232310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
710 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes tonight through
Saturday providing an extended stretch of dry weather. Lows
tonight will range between the upper 50s and low 60s, with highs
on Friday into the low to mid 80s. Temperatures will trend warmer
into Saturday with highs into the upper 80s. A cold front will
bring the next chance for thunderstorms by Sunday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Afternoon SFC analysis shows a weak low over west-central Ohio with
main frontal boundary extending west near the I-70 corridor in
IN/IL, while aloft a dampening mid-level wave is moving southeast
toward Lake Erie. Gradual drying in weak northerly flow post-
frontal, and little upper level support as upper wave works into the
eastern Great Lakes, should provide a mainly dry period late this
afternoon into tonight. With that said hard to completely rule out
an isolated shower this afternoon/evening given ample/lingering
boundary layer moisture and weak convergence in southward sinking
925-700 mb shear axis.

Dry easterly low level flow then settles in for Friday and Friday
night under low level anticyclone expected to build east through the
Great Lakes region. Mid-upper level height rises with sfc high
pressure shifting off to the east will support another dry/yet
warmer Saturday.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The next round of height falls through the Great Lakes on the
southern fringe of a strong shortwave propagating east through
southern Canada will force a slowing cold front through on Sunday.
Moisture return flow looks decent pre-frontal which supports PoPs
for scattered showers/storms. However...northward bypass of better
flow/forcing precludes anything higher than a mid chance PoP at this
range. A stretch of cooler/less humid weather is then anticipated
into the early-middle portion of next week as active front pushes
well south in response to renewed troughing/northwest flow across
the Great Lakes/Northeast.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 710 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016

High pressure building into the region will provide VFR conditions
through the TAF period with light NE winds.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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