Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 160850

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
450 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A weak system will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
to the area today and early this evening. It will be cloudy but
mild with highs in the 70s. Very warm and dry weather returns on
Monday with high temperatures soaring to near record values in the
80s. Warm and dry weather continues Tuesday with highs in the
upper 70s across lower Michigan and back in the lower 80s over
north central Indiana and northwest Ohio. The next chance for rain
returns Tuesday night into Wednesday with a trend toward normal


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 448 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

An upper level trof was upstream accompanied by a cold front
extending from northern Iowa into western Wisconsin. The upper
level trof will continue to move east, but will lose upper level
support as another upper wave in very strong flow aloft moves
inland across North America. The best chance for rain is this
morning before the upper support wanes. Very mid weather will
continue for this time of year with highs in the 70s. Lows tonight
in the 60s will be close to the warmest lows for this time of


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 448 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Very mild weather will be on hand Monday with temperatures rising to
to near record highs in the low to mid 80s. Breezy south to
southwest winds may gust to over 30 mph. Rain and storms will remain
north of the area. However, chances for rain over the forecast area
will be increasing during the middle of the week as a broad upper
level trof moves east. There is ample support for a wave to develop
along the front by early Thursday. The GFS favors a south track
while both the Canadian and ECMWF bring the precipitation axis
associated with the deformation zone over the forecast area. After
this system moves across the area, temperatures will be near normal
with little if any rain by the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

VFR conditions to start the period overnight. Winds around 10
knots at the surface overnight but around 40 knots at 2kft as seen
locally on KIWX 88D Vad Wind Profiler. Will continue LLWS in
terminals through daybreak. Rain chances increase toward 12z at
KSBN and 16z at KFWA. Regional radar shows upstream activity
moving east. HiRes guidance brings this across terminals today
with some embedded tsra possible. Some uncertainty exists for
later this afternoon and tonight with respect to cigs and vis.
Guidance hinting at some IFR cigs and VIS with fog and stratus
development. For now kept conditions MVFR.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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