Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300021
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
821 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE
WANING...WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE AND ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT
GENERATION ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST IF UPSTREAM TRENDS PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS. IN ITS WAKE...SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP
INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE
SHADOW WAS ALREADY INLAND. BAND OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD SEE BORDERLINE ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE HAIL. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING. COOLER NIGHT STILL ON TAP BUT
NOT AS BAD AS LAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EAST AND NORTH TO MID
50S WEST/SOUTH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS WHICH
WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR FALL A BIT WITH LAKE
BREEZE. HAVE HELD WITH GENERAL IDEA OF POPS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE
WORKED OUT TODAY AND BETTER SETUP TOMORROW HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL IN CHC CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST EAST GIVEN BEST
TIMING IN THE EAST IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPR
GRTLKS BY THU AS DEEP OCCLUDING LOW OVER SERN CANADA GRDLY WEAKENS.
ASSOCIATED UPR LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL ALSO FILL IN THIS TIME FRAME
BUT A LINGERING TROF/COOL POOL ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD/SCT AFTN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK. UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO TOP STRONG
WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE TO SE CANADA ON
TUE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT AMPLIFICATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC
CDFNT. LEANED TOWARD WEAKER GFS WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS WK CDFNT STAYS TO THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL KEEP TERMINALS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS ENHANCED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS TO REACH KSBN LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MONITOR
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
TO ADD SHRA MENTION AT KSBN. YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TIMING OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTING BEST AFTERNOON
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO. GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE...WILL KEEP
A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR TERMINALS FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH BEST
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD EXIST AT KFWA. WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT WESTERLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


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