Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260637
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
237 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER EAST AREA. HIGH TODAY WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS PERIOD...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO ALLOW VFR CU TO BECOME A
CEILING LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER
EAST AREAS SO HAVE INCLUDED FT WAYNE WITH A VFR BROKEN CEILING.
OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 17 TO 20 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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