Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 260608

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
208 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Issued at 206 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Cool weather is expected to continue through Tuesday with lows
generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. An isolated shower is possible through the early
morning hours, mainly along and north of Route 6. There is a low
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the remainder
of the area later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions can
then be expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night before chances of
showers and thunderstorms increase again later Wednesday through


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Little change (cool/mainly dry) is expected into tonight and Monday
as an upper trough remains place across the Great Lakes. Low level
troughing and more pronounced bouts of CVA will also continue to
focus better shower chances north of the local area, though cannot
rule out a few showers into far nw IN/sw Lower MI this evening into
the early overnight as a smaller scale/moisture-starved shortwave
drops southeast from the Upper Midwest. Dry otherwise/elsewhere
tonight into Monday morning with lows in the low/mid 50s tonight.

Low chances for isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
creeps back into the forecast mid afternoon through early evening on
Monday, best chances along/south of US 30 away from more stable
lake influence as the next shortwave from the Upper Midwest
possibly capitalizes on steepening low-mid level lapse rates/weak
diurnal destabilization. Weak low level convergence and slightly
higher sfc dewpoints will also be in place here by peak heating.
However, meager moisture profiles precludes anything higher than a
20-30 PoP, with small hail possible given cool profile if any
stronger cells develop. The main story otherwise on Monday will be
unseasonably cool temps with highs only reaching near 70 degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The eastward exit of the upper level trough will afford warming
temps and dry conditions into Tuesday and Wednesday. This will
likely be followed by a more active/flatter west to west-southwest
flow regime Wednesday night through Friday. Increasing moisture
with strengthening south-southwest low level flow into a
developing frontal boundary will likely focus multiple
convectively enhanced shortwaves east through the Midwest/Great
Lakes during this time. The result will be periodic chances for
showers/storms, with perhaps a strong/severe/hvy rain threat at
some point given decent wind fields and high moisture content
showing up in guidance. Chances for precipitation then diminish
next weekend as incoming height falls/troughing eventually
suppresses active frontal zone off to the south.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Complex upper level flow pattern will continue this forecast
period. An upper level short wave across Wisconsin will drop
southeast overnight and may be associated with a few more isolated
showers across extreme northern Indiana/southern Lower Michigan.
Will keep TAFS dry due to expected low coverage and very low
confidence of shower occurring at terminals this morning.
Additional short wave energy will drop south-southeast from the
Dakotas, reaching the mid MS Valley toward midday. This short wave
may result in uptick in shower activity (isolated thunder
potential) this afternoon during peak heating, although best
chances may remain across northwest/west-central Indiana.
Instability profiles from near term forecast soundings also on the
meager side due to relatively deep mixing and thus will keep TAFS
dry at this time. With this deep mixed layer, west gusts to
around 20 knots are expected once again today, diminishing early
this evening. VFR conditions to persist this period with the
relatively dry air mass keeping cloud bases AOA 5k feet.


IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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