Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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769
FXUS63 KIWX 021848
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
248 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S. SKIES WILL TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
THEN RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEAR A LEFTOVER LOW LVL
SHEAR ZONE/TROUGH. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE UNDER
PERTURBED WSW FLOW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD FINALLY GET A PUSH FARTHER
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT-TUESDAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND LAST OF
SMALLER SCALE UPPER WAVES FINALLY TRANSLATE THROUGH. THE
ASSOCIATED DRY ADVECTION/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A
CLEARING TREND ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME...WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE/ISO SHOWER UNFORTUNATELY
HOLDING INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF
THE US 24 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SLIGHT VEERING/WARM ADVECTION AND
DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN A WARMER TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

ATTENTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL TURN TO IMPRESSIVE
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY MODELED TO DROP SSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD ALONG LEADING/DEEP AREA OF
ASCENT/CONVERGENCE NW TO SE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAW/COOLER NW FLOW ANTICIPATED IN POST-
FRONTAL CAA REGIME. COULD EVEN SEE SOME ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND FRONT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BENEATH COLD
POCKET ALOFT. COOLER WX THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF DEEP TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG/EAST OF I-69 GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
DEEPER MOISTURE/TRAILING DEFORMATION.

RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MODERATING TEMPS AND FAIR WX INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER
LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH RENEWED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES LATER SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT ROUND OF
SOUTHEAST CANADA HEIGHT FALLS FORCES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SLOW BUT STEADY IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING INCREASES SLIGHTLY. TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT KSBN BUT
KFWA MAY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. ADJUSTED THE TAF ACCORDINGLY BUT SUSPECT THERE MAY
STILL BE PERIODS OF VFR OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


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