Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 301929
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
329 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. CLOSED LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...ANOTHER ONE MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL RIDGE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN. SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL DRYING
TRAILING BEHIND FIST UPPER LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MIXING OUT OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER SW CWA...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND
LIGHT NE FLOW TONIGHT. GOOD VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BUT EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SO ANY FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AT MOST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. MAY STILL STRUGGLE WITH MORNING
CLOUDS BUT THEN GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID-DAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S AND HIGHS WED
NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IMPRESSIVE WRAPPED UP CYCLONE OVR WRN SD WILL LIFT OUT RAPIDLY NWD
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SHRT TERM IN RESPONSE TO SIG UPSTREAM SW
KICKER DIVING INTO THE PACNW THIS AFTN. SIG DEEP EWD TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION XPCD THEREAFTER W/EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW DVLPMNT ACRS THE
NRN LAKES LIKELY BY WEEKS END. AS A RESULT...A SIG POLEWARD SURGE OF
MSTR WILL TAKE PLACE AHD OF DEEPENING SFC FNTL ZONE W/MOST PREFERRED
TIMING BEING LT THU NIGHT/FRI AM PER CONSENSUS MEANS AS MADE SOME
SIG EARLY PD ADJUSTMENTS TO PRIOR POPS.

OTRWS STG LL CAA TO WRAP EWD THROUGH SRN FLANK OF MID LVL CYCLONE LT
FRI INTO SAT W/SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS COMPARED TO THU. LL WRLY FLW
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR LK BASED SHRA DVLPMNT SWD INTO NRN IN AND
WILL TRUNCATE PRIOR SWD EXTENT. HWVR FAR NRN AREAS THAT DO SEE SHRA
ON SAT WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S.

SLW MODERATION TO FOLLOW AS DEEP LAKES CYCLONE FILLS AND WKNS EWD
INTO EARLY NXT WEEK. SECONDARY CLIPPER WAVE DIVING THROUGH WRN
PERIPHERY OF H5 HGT ANOMALY MAY TRIGGER ADDNL SHRA LT SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALTHOUGH MORE NRN TRACK OF THIS FTR AND LL MSTR SCOUR AHD OF
LEAD SYS WARRANTS NOTHING MORE THAN SLGT CHC MENTION AT THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF SBN AND FWA AS MID
LEVEL DRYING ALLOWING FOR SOME MIXING OUT. MAY REALIZE A LITTLE OF
THIS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT NE
FLOW. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN GETTING SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CLOUD COVER SO
WILL LEAVE AS MVFR FOR NOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
MORNING WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JAL


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