Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 222111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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