Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 171726
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
126 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AND DECENT GRADIENT WINDS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO RAPIDLY RECOVER FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE U20S/30S. CIRRUS OVER IL
SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR CWA THIS AFTN LIMITING FURTHER MIXING/TEMP
RISES. GENERALLY BUMPED UP MAXES ABOUT A CATEGORY ON UPDATE WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

PERSISTENT WAA IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AS AN UPPER
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH DAMPENS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS WILL RESULT WITH MIXING DEPTHS DEEPER WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THETA-E RIDGE DROPS IN AND SFC WINDS VEER
SSW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI.

SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN LAKES WAVE
WILL GRADUALLY SINK INTO OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI ZONES LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HERE
DURING THIS TIME AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH AN
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING RRQ UPPER JET
SUPPORT ENHANCES THE FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE. HOWEVER...LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/RETURN AND EXPECTED NARROW BAND
PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A MID CHC POP AFTER 03Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM FORECAST. STILL LOOKS TO
BE JUST A COUPLE PERIODS WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY BEGINS WITH SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED WITH SLIGHT POOLING
ALONG FRONT AND MODEST MID LEVEL FORCING. THIS WARRANTS THE
CONTINUATION OF MID CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING POPS
IN AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THEN SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. COOL EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED
SATURDAY BUT THIS TO BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF SUN AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UP A FEW DEGREES AND
HAVE FOLLOWED WITH EXPECTED HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTHWEST.

DEEPER MIXING ON EASTER SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF NEXT
SYSTEM PER LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A MILD AND DRY DAY IN
STORE. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 8C AND 10C WITH DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID 70S. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO
JUMP ON THIS BUT CONTINUED TO NUDGE TEMPS WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES.

DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE SLOWING
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NOW LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM. MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING A GOOD GULF TAP BUT
DECENT SHORT WAVE DEPICTED AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WARRANTS POP
INCLUSION. TEMPS REMAIN SEASONAL FOR DAY 6 AND 7 BEHIND THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

WKNG LOW OVER WI WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WITH TRAILING
CDFNT OVER IL MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN INDIANA. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONT ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH SBN LATE THIS EVE AND FWA IN PRE-DAWN HOURS. SW WINDS
WILL CONT IN THE 15-20KT RANGE THIS AFTN AND THEN BECOME LIGHT WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE CDFNT SHOULD SPREAD
INTO NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY SUGGEST A BAND OF -SHRA WILL FILL IN ALONG/BEHIND THE
CDFNT TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST IMPACT SBN WITH SOME WET
PAVEMENT OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY BR TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/KG
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


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