Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIWX 141855
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
255 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
SOME PLEASANT FALL LIKE WEATHER. THEN TOMORROW A TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AS FAST AS LOW CLOUDS BEGAN TO MIX OUT...DIURNAL CU ERUPTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THESE HAVE BEEN STEADILY ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD END UP
MOSTLY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NW WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE. THIS
WAVE...CURRENTLY DROPPING SE THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHARPEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z MONDAY. BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH AND NW PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
THAT PHASES AND POTENTIALLY BRINGS BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN IN SE AREAS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS HIGH LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THINGS NO HIGHER THAN LIKELY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND NOT AN OVERLY DYNAMIC OR
MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS WILL BE
TEMPERED A BIT BY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...ESPECIALLY NW...REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST SPOTS EXCEPT FAR NW WHERE FASTER CLOUD
AND RAIN ARRIVAL WILL LIMIT HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

QUIET STRETCH OF WX EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL UNDER A SUPPRESSED HEIGHT FIELD. THIS TROUGHING RELAXES
LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT A MODEST WARMING
TREND. ASSOCIATED WAA SURGE WITHIN STRENGTHENING LLJ IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO QUESTION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING/DEPTH OF WAVE AT THIS FCST RANGE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

DIURNAL CU RAPIDLY DEVELOPED BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WHICH WILL
CONVERGE ON THE GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
OCCUR AT KSBN NEAR OR JUST OUTSIDE THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH KFWA
LIKELY WAITING TILL AFTER 18Z. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY BROUGHT IN
LOWER (STILL VFR) CIGS LATER IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL MSTR
ARRIVES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.