Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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586
FXUS63 KIWX 291624
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1224 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

High pressure moving slowly southeast across the Great Lakes will
provide generally fair weather across our area today and tonight,
though there remains a small chance of showers and thunderstorms
over southwestern portions of the area through this evening close
to a lingering frontal boundary. Highs today will be in the middle
to upper 80s with lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s. A cold
front will move southeast across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms to
the area, followed by cool and dry weather late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Area of low clouds and dense fog has transitioned into mainly a
stratus deck across far northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio this
morning. This area appears to have been enhanced earlier this
morning by easterly flow off Lake Erie. Diurnal mixing will
continue to shrink these low clouds and currently not expecting
significant adjustments to afternoon highs at this time with more
rapid mixing out of these clouds anticipated by 1 PM, but may need
some slight downward adjustment in highs along across from
southern Dekalb to eastern Allen counties depending on duration of
these low clouds. Otherwise, not much change from previous
forecast with best chance of any isolated-scattered afternoon
showers/storms primarily west of a BEH-FWA-AOH line where deeper
moisture should reside.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Diffuse backdoor cdfnt extending swwd from low over the st.
lawrence river valley across central oh/in and then nwwd to a wk
low over the nrn plains should remain nearly stnry today, though
wrn portion of the front will likely lift north a bit as nrn
plains low moves east into mn. Although convergence along this
boundary is very wk, appears in rap/hrrr to be a little stronger
at h85 just north of sfc front where a few showers/tstms ongoing
over wrn IN attm. Airmass along the front remains very moist and
will become moderately unstable with diurnal heating today, psbly
supporting sct tstms across our sw by this aftn. High pressure
settling south from the lwr grtlks tonight should provide dry
conditions across the area. With no sgfnt change in airmass,
persistence in temps followed for today with highs in the m-u80s,
though a little cooler temps expected tonight, especially across
the east where better dry air infiltration expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Generally fair wx expected Tue though lingering boundary over nwrn
IN could spark a few aftn tstms once again. Upr level trof and an
accompanying sfc cdfnt still expected to move se across the
grtlks tue ngt and wed bringing another chc of showers/tstms.
Strong sfc high pressure will then build se from central canada
within highly amplified upr flow causing cool/dry conditions
across our area late week. Temps will moderate back to near normal
over the weekend as the high moves to the new england coast and
return flow waa develops across the midwest, but dry airmass
should persist over the area continuing to provide fair wx.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Light winds, mainly clear skies, and residual low level moisture
once again contributing to patchy fog/stratus development across
northern IN early this morning. Whether these restrictions impact
the terminals through 12-13z remains of low confidence, resulting
in little change from previous fcst. Dry/VFR expected otherwise as
any shower/storm activity near leftover theta-e gradient likely
focuses southwest of the terminals today.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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