Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240807

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
407 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Cooler, less humid, and breezy conditions will be in store for the
weekend. An isolated shower is possible today and Sunday, but
most of the period will remain dry. A slightly better chance of
showers is expected for Monday which will be followed by dry
conditions for Tuesday and most of the Wednesday. High
temperatures today will reach into the lower to mid 70s with lows
tonight dropping into the lower to mid 50s. High temperatures
for Sunday will be limited to the upper 60s and lower 70s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Quieter weather pattern in store for the weekend which will be
marked by much cooler conditions, along with an outside chance of
a shower.

Secondary sfc trough is currently tracking across the forecast
area early this morning, which will provide cooler and less humid
conditions for today with persistent low level cold advection.
Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts two main short
waves of interest, one lead short wave working across northern
Iowa early this morning and more pronounced upper low dropping
across eastern North Dakota. This lead short wave should track
across the the area this afternoon. Moisture availability will be
on the meager side with well mixed low levels limiting surface-
based instability magnitude. Given favorable timing of this short
wave this afternoon, cannot completely rule out a few isolated
showers or sprinkles developing mainly northeast Indiana/south
central Lower Michigan/far northwest Ohio. May need to include
some mention for this afternoon but window of any isolated precip
potential should be limited due to rapid progression of this wave
east of the area late afternoon. Otherwise, highs today should be
mainly in the low to mid 70s with afternoon westerly gusts to 20
to 25 mph.

The stronger ND upper trough will dive southeast across Great Lakes
tonight possibly bringing a few showers to lower Michigan in
proximity to associated mid/upper level cool pocket. Maintenance of
modest low level height gradient tonight should keep mins in the
lower to mid 50s for most locations.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Confidence in isolated shower development for Sunday beginning to
wane somewhat, with present indications suggesting local area
could be situated between notable short waves for most of the day.
The ND vort max will be shifting off to the eastern Great Lakes
early in the day, with next upstream short wave not expected to
become more of an influence until Sunday night/Monday. Boundary
layer moisture also becomes even more in question with diurnal
mixing Sunday afternoon. Nudged PoPs slightly downward but
maintained isolated mention across the north Sunday afternoon.
Maintained low to mid range chance PoPs for Monday as more
pronounced mid/upper level cooling takes place with western
Ontario upper trough digging south. Otherwise, Sunday/Monday
shaping up to be the coolest days of the forecast period with
highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Next eastern Pacific trough will begin to dampen western CONUS upper
ridging by late Monday/Tuesday as this ridge shifts across
central US. This will provide gradual moderation in temperatures
for the Tuesday-Thursday period. The next chances of
showers/storms should be delayed more until the late Wednesday-
Friday timeframe with some indication in medium range models that
eastern CONUS ridging may be somewhat stubborn to fully breakdown
limiting more significant moisture transport to the Corn Belt and
western Great Lakes region through Wednesday night. More favorable
moisture transport should set up for later Thursday into Friday
with indications of an unsettled period by the end of next work
week as a series of Pacific waves interact with low level
baroclinic zone settling across the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Band of mid clouds was working east across the area in association
with progressive wind shift/secondary cold front. Clouds have been
stubborn to leave KSBN but will not include in TAFs as back edge
should be nearly clear of the site soon. Have added in mention at
KFWA through remainder of the night. Skies will clear in the wake
of this front, only to fill back in with sct-bkn cu as steep lapse
rates and limited moisture stir up development. Can`t rule out a
stray shower, but not worthy of any mention. Skies will partially
clear after 00z.

Winds will pick up somewhat during the late morning into afternoon
hours, gusting to around 20 knots.


IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili

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