Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 201854
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
254 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TODAY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRANQUIL AFTN SO FAR IN SHALLOW POST FNTL AIRMASS. HWVR LL DRYING
HAS NOT BEEN AS EXTENSIVE AS INDICATED IN PRIOR MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
ISOLD SHRA NW SHLD UPTICK SOME THROUGH THIS AFTN GIVEN BAND OF
AGGRAVATED CU ACRS EXTENDING EWD INTO NW OH.

OTRWS PRIMARY DIFFICULTY IS W/NWD RTN OF SFC FNTL ZONE INADV OF NXT
SW DISTURBANCE ROLLING EWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA THIS AFTN. WHILE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR ALOFT...TIMING OF STG LL MSTR FLUX
DIFFERS AND GENERALLY SIDED W/SLWR SOLUTIONS IN LIGHT OF CURRENT
COMPLEX WORKING THROUGH SE IL/SW IN...THUS SLOWED ARRIVAL OF
LIKELY POPS SW HALF UNTIL 12Z. ACTIVE WMFNTL ZONE XPCD TO CONTINUE
ON THU ESP CNTRL/WEST UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT OUTFLW/WMFNT
COMPOSITE ANCHORS SFC FNTL ZONE THROUGH NRN IN IF NOT FURTHER
SOUTH. BUMPED SWRN HALF HIGHER YET CUT FAR NE LWR PER CONSENSUS OF
HIGHRES GUIDANCE. PRIOR TEMPS LIKELY TOO WARM AS NOTED IN UPSTREAM
TEMPS UNDER EXTENSIVE CLDS/PRECIP THIS AFTN AND HAVE CUT MAX TEMPS
SOME BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH SW. WILL LET NIGHT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SUSPECT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LLJ STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30-40 KTS
AND STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS MCS WILL EVENTUALLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TRACK OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION BUT IT COULD IMPACT OUR CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS AT
LEAST A HIGH CHANCE POP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN MAY
BE THE BIGGER THREAT WITH PW VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES AND
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND WASH OUT A BIT. 12Z NWP SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE QPF BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A DECENT WARM NOSE
AROUND 850MB. COMBINED WITH A LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM AMID
BUILDING LONGWAVE RIDGE...SUSPECT MODEL QPF MAY BE OVERDONE.
MAINTAINED JUST A LOW CHANCE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. KEPT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY DRY THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
WEAKER. MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN BUT LATEST MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT COULD BE AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY.

SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND
20C AND MOST GUIDANCE AGREES ON HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90F. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...SUPPORTING
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR CONDS TO BEGIN THE PD IN SHALLOW POST FNTL AIRMASS BEHIND
DEPARTING SW DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT THROUGH SERN ONTARIO. HWVR
UPSTREAM SW OVR SRN BC WILL CARRY EWD OVERNIGHT AND AIDE NWD RTN OF
WMFNTL BNDRY BACK ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY. XPC STORMS WILL FIRE INVOF
OF TERMINALS TWD 12Z W/TSRA PROBABLE THU AM W/PD OF MVFR CONDS PSBL.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


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