National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KIWX 200750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING
WARMER AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

ANOTHER TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT WEATHER DAY FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD.
SPRAWLING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO EXIT EASTWARD BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SIZABLE INFLUENCE
OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTENT AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL ADD SEVERAL
DEGREES TO AFTERNOON HIGHS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
TO AROUND 14C BY THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST.
THIS IS ALSO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. RETURN FLOW
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER
FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. WILL ALSO BE A VERY WEAK SHEARED
OUT MIDLEVEL WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT
AS MEASURED BY 700-300MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY
NONEXISTENT. PROFILES ARE STILL VERY DRY AS WELL AND THERE ARE SOME
CAPPING CONCERNS GIVEN RESIDUAL 700MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING HIGH. UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS SEEN IN
RAW GFS GUIDANCE ARE ALSO MUCH TOO HIGH. WITH A LACK OF GOOD FORCING
MECHANISM...DRY PROFILES...AND OVERALL WEAK CAPE VALUES WILL FORGO
ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION
STAYING WELL NORTHWEST OF HERE IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPSTREAM LLJ.
INCREASED CLOUDS/WAA AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS THOUGH WITH VALUES GENERALLY STAYING IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

SIG DOWNSTREAM HGT RISES STILL ON TAP THIS PD INADV OF DEEP LYRD
TROUGH PIVOTING LIFTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. BROAD
MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS BLDS CORE OF MID-UPR RIDGE AXIS ACRS
THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY THROUGH SUN BFR SHIFTING EWD IN ASSOCN/W
EJECTION OF SIG NRN ROCKIES SW TWD JAMES BAY MON. NWD TRACK OF THIS
SYS AND BREATH OF MID LVL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SUGGESTS
ALL POP MENTION CAN BE DROPPED THROUGH TUE OR UNTIL THIS FTR
REAMPLIFIES THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND LT PD AND PUSHES FNTL ZONE SWD
AS MID LVL RIDGE RETROGRADES WWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.

HWVR WILL HOLD W/LOW CHC MENTION ACRS THE NORTH SAT/SAT NIGHT IN
ASSOCN/W LL THETA-E RIDGE FOLDING OVR THE WRN LAKES AHD OF IMPLIED
LT DY1/EARLY DY2 MCS DVLPMNT ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST. OTRWS
TURNING HOT AND HUMID AS MID LVL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARED OUT WAVE AND DEBRIS
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 KFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PRESENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY AND RETURN FLOW WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU. RESIDUAL DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
THOUGH AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO/AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA