Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 020759 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
357 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY PROVIDING THE LOCAL AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER.
HIGHS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 DEGREES...WITH LOWS
LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

ASCENT/DEEPER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG A LEFTOVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SPOTTY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE IWX CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
1500 J/KG UNDER AN EASTWARD ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (-15C AT
500 MB). MID LEVEL DRYING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/CHANCES TO ISOLATED AT BEST WEST OF
I-69...WITH LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE SHADOW POSSIBLY
PROVIDING SOME FOCUS. UPDRAFTS WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT LITTLE TO
NO ORGANIZATION GIVEN LACKING SHEAR/FLOW...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR STRONGER CORES TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT.

DRY CONDITIONS/CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRAVERSES THE LOWER LAKES IN WAKE OF TROUGH...SAVE FOR LOW CHC FOR A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF I-69 IN THE EVENING. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT/CLEARING AND LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE MAY ONCE
AGAIN COMBINE TO PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE COMPARABLE TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF DAYS GIVEN STABLE PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES EXPECTED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. THESE WAVES WILL ACT TO KEEP
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS TRANSITION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHICH COUPLED WITH
CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY LEAD TO SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING STILL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 80 WITH LOWS AROUND 60. YET ANOTHER SMALL SCALE VORT MAX AND
SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN AND
PROPENSITY FOR THESE WAVES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY...HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE TO FORECAST.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE VARIANCE IN FORECAST
DETAILS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUATION OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES IN LARGE SCALE FLOW. STRONGER WAVE STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE IN
THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE FRONT BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY TO OUR
SOUTH. RESULT MAY BE SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS RIDING
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS AND
CONFIDENCE REMAIN POOR. GENERALLY ACCEPTED ALLBLEND POPS IN THE MID
CHANCE RANGE FOR LATTER PART OF FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLE BLENDS USED
FOR FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS POINT. SOME POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS
FOR HEAVY RAIN OR SOME SEVERE STORMS DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF WAVES
AND WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ENDS UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN 60S FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

SCATTERED SLOW MOVING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF KFWA
AS OF 0500Z...ALONG A LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS LIFT HAS
INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF A SHARPENING MID LVL TROUGH AXIS.
EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING IS FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN MAINLY ESE OF THE TERMINAL WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM. OTHERWISE...POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PROMOTE SOME MINOR VIS RESTRICTIONS AT BOTH
SBN/FWA 09-13Z.

THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR RENEWED ISO-SCT STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT FWA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST INTO AN INCREASINABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE SBN
LIKELY REMAINS DRY WITH STABLE LAKE SHADOW WORKING IN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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