Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 280740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
340 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

A low pressure system is expected to cause thunderstorms as it lifts northeast
across our area this afternoon. Storms will move out of the area tonight
but a few more may develop Memorial Day afternoon as another weak
trough moves through. After highs in the 70s today, temperatures
will be a little cooler than normal Monday through Wednesday as
northwest flow on the backside of the slowly departing low
pressure system persists across the western Great Lakes. A few
showers are possible again Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as a
couple more weak troughs rotate around the slowly departing low.
Temperatures will warm a bit late week but there will also be
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
slowly approaches from the north.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Airmass over our area will destabilize today as an upr trof moves
east to the wrn Grtlks. This should allow tstms to develop over
wrn portions of our area early this aftn and spread east across
ern portions later this aftn. Given forecast of moderate
instability with cape apchg 1500j/kg and modest deep layer shear
near 30kt, some potential for a few storms with damaging winds and
large hail in our area. Decent mixing and a warm start to the day
should allow temps to top out in the m70s despite considerable
cloudiness and dvlpg storms/cold pools this aftn.

Storms expected to move east out of the cwa early this eve
as cdfnt moves through. WSW gradient should keep some mixing
going overnight limiting temp falls despite clearing skies with
lows expected in the m50s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Upr low over srn Manitoba expected to move to the upr Grtlks Monday
and then lift slowly ne Tue/Wed. Mainly a cool/dry period, but shrtwv`s
rotating around this low may cause a few showers in the area each day.
Another upr low expected to track slowly se across srn Ontario
Thu-Fri and to Quebec Saturday. Swly low level flow should develop
ahead of this system allowing for some destabilization in our
area by Fri as cdfnt approaches which may allow tstms to develop.
This front expected to move slowly south across the cwa keeping a
chc of showers in the area through Saturday, with temps turning
cooler after a brief/modest late week warmup.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR this period. Sfc trough in association with upper disturbance
digging swd over nrn MN will shift across the area this aftn.
Extensive convection early this morning from OK ewd through nrn GA
will decay/shift swd with debris clouds expected to clear out. Thus
expect sufficient destabilization to ensue given adequate return low
level theta-e ridging ahead of sfc trough this aftn with a vigorous
storm or two given decent mid level flow. However will hold with
general aftn vcts mention given large spread seen in 00Z based CAMS
guidance and await insertion of more specific timing for 12Z fcst.





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