Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Very warm and dry weather will persist into the middle of next week
as high pressure remains over the Great Lakes. Highs will range
from the upper 80s to the lower 90s with lows in the 60s for the
next several days.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Yet another day stagnated within low level thermal ridge to provide
widespread lower 90s temperatures across the region, with
record/near record daily highs today. Ardent mid level ridging over
the southern Great Lakes through the period to maintain dry airmass
with large scale subsidence to offset potential late
afternoon/evening buoyant parcels.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

CWA to remain between active Atlantic tropical storm track and
deep/slowly progressing western CONUS trof with primarily nil
sensible weather, save for end of forecast period DY6/7. Continue
to remove egregious lake environment/ thermal bleed into land in
far northwest CWA through DY 5, especially given background
southeast to southerly flow. Leeside cyclo/frontogenesis with
formidable downstream ridging over Great Lakes to likely lead to
stalled/decaying boundary west of CWA through the forecast period.
Shallow frontal forced convection potentially into CWA by DY6-7,
though present indications for meager instability/relatively low
chance pops as cold pool dominant convection moves farther away
from richer theta-e axis.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Ridging sfc and aloft will remain parked over the Great Lakes this
period with wx nil. Some expansion/intensification in sfc ridge and
light backing flow should yield a bit more br potential early Sat
morning and held with previous MVFR mention late tonight. Could even
see a period of IFR vsby restriction invof KFWA toward daybreak yet
will punt that potential to later fcsts.




LONG TERM...Murphy

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