Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 290727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
327 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A weak upper level trough and stalled front will keep chances for
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the forecast
today into chances during the afternoon and
evening hours. Partly to mostly cloudy otherwise into the weekend
with lows generally in the 60s and highs in the upper 70s to low
80s. High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday providing
dry conditions. A warm front will then bring renewed chances for
storms and humid conditions into the region for the middle of next


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A broad mid/upper level trough axis into the Upper Midwest and
Western Great Lakes will work slowly east into the Great
Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley today into Saturday...while in the low
levels a diffuse frontal boundary remains draped over the region.
Associated shower/storm chances will be mainly diurnally driven
given weak forcing/flow, with this afternoon/evening looking like
the best opportunity as an approaching shortwave now over MN/IA
likely activates scattered convection along lingering frontal
boundary. Trough axis then lingers overhead into tonight and
Saturday resulting in additional rain/thunder chances. Lacking flow
should mitigate any severe threat, although locally heavy
rainfall/flooding possible given slow cell movement. Otherwise, near
to slightly below normal temps expected.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Building heights/subsidence in wake of mid/upper level trough will
promote a mainly dry/seasonable Sunday and Monday, although hard to
completely rule out lingering clouds or an isolated late day shower
Sunday across southern portions of area near weak/lingering
instability axis. The focus toward the middle of next week will then
turn to building heat/humidity and renewed shower/storm chances as
the local area becomes positioned on the northeast fringe of a
building Central Conus upper ridge. Latest guidance continues to
point to Tuesday/early Wednesday for a possible convective complex
along approaching theta-e gradient...with more humid/hot wx timed
to ridge fold over by Wednesday or Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1257 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

wk shrtwv movg across swrn MI/nwrn IN and wk sfc low centered
near FWA were acting on wk instability resulting in sct shra and
isolated ts across ne IN early this morning. Latest HRRR suggests
this slow moving convection will shift e-ne overnight as shrtwv
moves to sern MI. Wk flow and considerable low level moisture
should result in some low clouds and br developing toward
daybreak. Diurnal heating and another somewhat stronger apchg
shrtwv should result in sct shra/ts across the area again Fri
aftn/eve. Rather light wind fields and moist airmass should once
again result in slow moving cells.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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