Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311805
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLY TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS
GRASSY AREAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AREA OF FRONTALLY FORCED RAIN SHOWERS HAS FILLED IN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
LIGHT...IN THE 0.03-0.08 INCH PER HOUR RANGE. ATTENTION FOR LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE SECOND SFC TROUGH/COOL
FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
SFC TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF SFC
PRESSURE RISES WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS TROUGH. AN ENHANCED AREA OF REFLECTIVITY
IS NOTED PER RADAR IMAGERY WEST OF MUSKEGON AT 14Z AND WILL BE
DROPPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA TOWARD MIDDAY. PRECIP TYPES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY CHALLENGING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
TRAJECTORIES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF LONG RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE
LAKE...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION THAT WOULD
TEND TO KEEP LOW LEVEL WET BULBS ABOVE FREEZING SUPPORTING MAINLY
RAIN. HOWEVER...CONTINUED BACKGROUND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND
AN INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE NATURE TO PRECIP INDUCED BY LAKE
MICHIGAN MODIFICATION WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. DIFFICULT
AT THIS TIME TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST WITH
CATEGORICAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. ONLY MINOR TWEAK TO SNOW ACCUMS THIS AFTERNOON WAS TO EXTEND
LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS EASTWARD A BIT AS MAY SEE THE AFOREMENTIONED
ENHANCED AREA OF REFLECTIVITY CURVE BACK SOUTHEASTWARD LATE THIS
MORNING IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL TROUGH. WILL STAY WITH AROUND 1
INCH ACCUMULATIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIP
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO INCREASING LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY AND LOCALIZED NATURE OF PTYPE TENDENCIES. WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL ALSO REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH STRONGER
GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED THAN HEADLINE TIMING...AND FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY SFC TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
INTO EXTREME NORTHERN ILLINOIS. RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW FARTHER
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE COLD AIR
WAS DEEPER AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTED ALL SNOW. A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE ONGOING TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WIND
ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD
SHAPE...NO CHANGES MADE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RAPIDLY TODAY AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO HELP PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF SLEET ALONG WITH THUNDER TODAY DOWN STREAM OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HARDLY OFF THE GROUND WITH
EXTREMELY COLD AIR ALOFT. CONCERN FOR A FASTER CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW WITH VERY COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...-16C
AT 700 MB BY LATE MORNING WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PROFILE BELOW
FREEZING. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WAS ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW
GROWTH IN THE CLOUD LAYER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO THERE MAY BE AN EVEN FASTER CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. KEPT THE MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER FAR WEST AREAS FROM
LAPORTE COUNTY SOUTH AS A SINGLE SNOW BAND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LAPORTE COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRONG SHRTWV DROPPING SE ACROSS NRN WI THIS MORNING WILL ROUND BASE
OF ERN CONUS LONGWAVE SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVG
NNE OFF THE NE U.S. COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIDGE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD GRDLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
DAY. THERMAL TROF OVER OUR AREA IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS MUCH BLO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U30S/L40S. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NGT RESULTING IN DRY AIRMASS... MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE M20S OVER ALL OF THE CWA. LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND DID LOWER MINS
SLIGHTLY BUT MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER FAR WRN
AND ERN PORTION OF CWA FOR PART OF THE NGT AND A WK VORT LOBE
TOPPING UPR RIDGE OVER PLAINS MAY SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE...
SO GENERALLY STAYED ON HIGH END OF MOS ENVELOPE. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTN WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD START TO
THE DAY WILL LIMIT THE WARMUP WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
M-U40S. WAA WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUDS.
GOING MINS IN M-U30S A LITTLE ABOVE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE BUT SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING/CLOUDINESS.

FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... UPR FLOW EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY MON-TUE AS
DEEP TROF CURRENTLY OVER ERN PACIFIC MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPR GRTLKS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY POSITIVELY TILTED AND
FRACTURED WITH CUT-OFF LOW EVENTUALLY FORMING ALONG SWRN U.S./NWRN
MEXICO BORDER BY WED. COUPLE OF DAYS OF S-SW FLOW OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY BEHIND STRONG DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND AHEAD OF
APCHG TROF/CDFNT SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PRECIP WATER>1" AND SFC
DWPTS IN THE L50S TUE. THIS MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR
RATHER WK FORCING ALONG TROF/CDFNT SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWER FCST AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA AROUND TUE. FAST MOVG SHRTWV
EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE FROM SWRN CANADA THROUGH THE GRTLKS THU
AMPLIFYING THE FLOW A BIT. MODELS HAVE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
BUT SOME POTENTIAL STILL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND IN ITS WAKE WITH PSBL LAKE EFFECT. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE L-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KSBN
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC FORCING
DROPPING ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING
MORE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...AND LINGERING A BIT LONGER AT KFWA WHERE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL PROLONG SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE HAS LED TO A DISTINCT
INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS AT KSBN PAST HOUR...WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH KFWA TOWARD 21Z AS THE SFC
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD. WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS/COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR INZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ004-
     005-012>015-020-022.

MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ077.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078-079.

OH...NONE.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


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