Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291030
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
630 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

An area of low pressure will remain in place through Saturday
providing occasional rain showers and mostly cloudy skies. Lows
in the 50s and highs in the mid to upper 60s can be expected.
Mainly dry and warmer conditions are expected to build in behind
this system by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Cloudy and occasionally wet weather will remain the story as upper
low drops south into KY today/tonight and then focuses back into
southern IN on Friday. Higher chances for light to occasionally
moderate rain will mainly be confined to our far northern zones
(lower MI/far nw IN) this morning into the early afternoon near deep
moisture/deformation axis on northern fringe of low. Overall
expansion of deep moisture (precipitable water values near 1.20")
timed with next vort lobe rotating west around the parent
circulation should result in more widespread rain shower coverage
mid afternoon through early evening. Weak diurnal instability
under cold pool aloft, and weak moisture flux off Lake Erie, may
also support some pockets of heavier rain and possibly an embedded
rumble of thunder into mainly ne IN/nw OH during this time. As
mentioned by the prev shift cannot rule out small hail/funnel
clouds, but this appears less likely than yesterday given slightly
warmer profiles aloft.

There will likely be a lull in shower intensity/coverage briefly
tonight in between smaller scale vorts, though continued with
broadbrush chance PoPs given ample moisture and persistent
isentropic ascent into mid level deformation. 00z guidance overall
remained consistent in wrapping the next stronger vorticity maximum
through later tonight into Friday with the next opportunity for more
widespread shower activity. Once again could see some afternoon
isolated thunder as CAPE values build near 500 j/kg. Otherwise,
clouds and moist airmass will limit diurnal temp ranges with lows in
the 50s and highs in the 60s each day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Low pressure center will weaken/lift through the local area Saturday
into Saturday night. Clouds and additional rain shower chances will
result, with steepening lapse rates under cold pocket aloft likely
producing a diurnal uptick in intensity/coverage Saturday afternoon.
This feature is expected to drift northeast to near Lake Huron on
Sunday which should result in a mainly dry day, though did retain
low PoPs given lingering moist cyclonic flow/troughing. Fair weather
and moderating temps will then highlight the Monday through
Wednesday periods as upper level ridging becomes established in wake
of exiting upper low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Band of shra rotating around oh valley vertically stacked low
extended across srn mi swwd through sbn. Slow n-nw movement of the
band expected this morning with shra diminishing by late morning
and flight conditions improving to vfr for a period this aftn.
Another band of rain expected to move into the area from the east
late this aftn and linger into tonight, resulting in flight
conditions deteriorating to ifr once again.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...JT


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