Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 041935
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
335 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW
40S TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S BUT WILL BE COLDER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WARMER CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COMPACT AND ROBUST MIDLEVEL VORT MAX ON CYCLONICALLY SHEARED SIDE
OF 100+ KT UPPER JET IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE
AREA CURRENTLY RESIDING IN DRY SLOT BUT MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION BAND
ON NORTHERN FLANK OF WAVE...ALREADY INTO OUR MICHIGAN
COUNTIES...WILL SWING THROUGH OUR CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FORCING NOT AS STRONG AS THIS MORNING AND BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA BUT STILL EXPECT
SCT/NUM SHOWERS WITH AROUND A TENTH OR SO OF ADDITIONAL QPF. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR NORTH. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY TOMORROW
MORNING AS MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PULL RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST. COLD
TEMPS ALOFT AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING COULD GENERATE A STRAY
CONVECTIVE SHOWER IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BUT STEADILY INCREASING
HEIGHTS/AVA AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WARRANT JUST A SILENT 10 POP AT
THIS TIME. DO EXPECT A HEALTHY CU FIELD TOMORROW THOUGH AND THAT
SHOULD LIMIT THERMAL RECOVERY SOMEWHAT. TOUGH HIGH TEMP FORECAST
IN OUR NORTHWEST GIVEN LINGERING MARINE INFLUENCE IN N/NW FLOW.
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER INVERSION AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S WHILE MOST OF OUR AREA MIXES INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S. SOUTH BEND AREA RIGHT ON THE LINE ARE COULD BUST
IN EITHER DIRECTION.

TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S GIVEN ABUNDANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS. MUCH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP THURSDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND N/NW GRADIENT RELAXES.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH THERMAL MODIFICATION TO KEEP LOWS
AT OR ABOVE 40 SO FROST THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS POINT BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO A BE NICE DAY. AVA FROM APPROACHING RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY/SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. LATE DAY WAA AND
NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 70F FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A LATE-DAY PUSH TO MID 70S IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. GFS AND
ECMWF STILL KICKING OUT SOME SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE QPF ON LEADING EDGE
OF THETA-E SURGE BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY PRECIP
AND MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SENDS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SUGGESTING IT MAY BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP AT
12Z. THIS LIMITS PRECIP POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. BEST PV ADVECTION WILL
BYPASS US TO THE NORTH AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
DEPEND ON DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO COMPENSATE. AN EARLY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIMIT OUR PRECIP CHANCES SOMEWHAT...THOUGH STILL WORTHY
OF MID/HIGH RANGE CHANCE POPS...AND WILL ALSO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA AND ALLOW WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF
RAIN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST. FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING REMAINS LOW AND STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

CIGS HAVE JUST LIFTED TO MVFR AT KSBN AND EXPECT MVFR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PIVOT BACK SOUTHWARD
LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IMPACTING PRIMARILY KSBN AFTER
21Z AS EASTWARD EXTENT IN QUESTION. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE INDICATES
CIGS TO DROP BACK INTO IFR CATEGORY THIS EVENING AS SFC TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND
CLEARING EXPECTED NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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