Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 281125
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
625 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY IN ITS WAKE
TO CLOSE OUT THE FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF SUMMER. COULD STILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT DEEPER
MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.

CLOUDS/WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALLOWING
EVENING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY
SUNSET...ON THE WAY TO OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

DESPITE SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST...THEIR GENERAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A SHORT
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ENTERING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A
MODIFYING LONG WAVE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE 4TH.

WE WILL START THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK RELATIVELY DRY...WITH A
LOW END CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. TUESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING
CLOUDS AS A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS STREAMS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND
INTO THE PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SEVERAL
WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BUT DIFFER ON THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF THESE WAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.  INITIAL ENERGY
TRACKING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY REMAINS DEEPER
IN THE ECMWF SOLNS THAN THE GFS...WITH THE EC PRODUCING RAIN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG ELEVATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NE AND WEAKER WITH THIS ENERGY REALLY
KEEPING THE DRY INFLUENCE OF GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BETTER FOCUS IN THE GFS COMES WITH A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATER ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH THE EC
SUGGESTING THIS WAVE DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEARLY 12 HOURS LATER. SO
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES PERSISTING...HARD TO MAKE SUBSTANCIAL CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ESPECIALLY POPS.  TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
TREND COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SOME AREAS STRUGGLING
TO BREAK THE MID 70S.

BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE DRYING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
WILL DROP INTO THE CONUS BY SATURDAY...FLATTENING THE BROAD
WESTERN RIDGE AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING AN ADVANCING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ATTM...WEATHER FOR
THE 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES LOOKS FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY
16Z-01Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD SUNSET...
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH



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