Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 280902
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
402 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY...WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. SATELLITE AND RAINFALL
TRENDS SHOW THE MAIN SWATH OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD.
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY REMAINS...SO WILL LEAVE ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LOCALLY POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST IOWA...THE OVERALL THREAT WILL
END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STRATIFORM RAIN HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL MAINLY
CONSIST OF BANDS OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED FOR ANY RISES FROM EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AGGRAVATE RIVER
OR FLASH FLOODING FURTHER.

STRATUS WILL BLANKET THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH SOME
CLEARING FINALLY WORKING INTO THE WESTERN HALF LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH STRATUS AND LIGHT RAIN HANGING ON IN THE EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LOWERED HIGHS EVEN FURTHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES MAY APPROACH 80 WITH A GREATER WINDOW OF CLEARING
POSSIBLE.

NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DROP TO
AROUND 5 MPH. WITH CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...THE RECENT MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AREAWIDE. LOWS
WILL COOL INTO THE 50S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODEL LOW LEVEL RH TIME SECTIONS INDICATING STRATUS/PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN OUR SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF
THE NATION FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS MID
TO UPPER 60S. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS ON
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IS POOR AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS LEFT IT MAINLY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRACK EASTWARD WITH MODERATE RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES DROPPING
VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR RANGE. STRATUS IS LIKELY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL LIFT SOME AND BEGIN
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...


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