Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 111702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1202 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Surface ridge over our eastern CWA early this morning allowing for
another clear, calm, and cool night, with many locations near to
below freezing in areas along/east of I-29. Ridge axis will shift
off to the east today, allowing for an increasing southerly flow,
especially in our western areas where some afternoon gusts to
around 30 mph are possible. Moisture quite limited throughout the
profile, with the exception of lingering higher RH values at/below
850mb across our east which thins through the afternoon. Thus most
areas should see abundant sunshine today, with partly cloudy skies
in our far east. The southerly flow will bring warmer low level air
into the region, with highs from the upper 50s east to mid-upper 60s
west of the James Valley.

The southerly flow will diminish slightly this evening, but will
remain in the 8-15mph range most areas, with some higher gusts at
times in higher elevations. This should hold temperatures in the 40s
under clear to partly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Thursday will be a pleasant day across the board, with seasonally
mild temperatures and ample sunshine. With southwest flow aloft and
southerly surface winds ahead of an approaching front, temperatures
will be slightly above normal in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Nudged
the blended forecast a few degrees warmer. Breezy winds can be
expected late morning into the afternoon.

Front slides east through the region late Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night. Weather is expected to remain dry with the frontal
passage, however a weak shortwave along with a little mid level
moisture will bring some isolated to scattered showers to the area
during the daytime Friday, shifting to mainly just northwest Iowa
in the afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be light.

Positively tilted trough over the northern Rockies swings into the
northern High Plains on Saturday and quickly exits to the east by
Sunday morning. Models seem to be in better agreement with this
scenario, however the CMC is an outlier in depicting a slower
progression of the trough. High confidence that rain showers will
become widespread by Saturday afternoon. The highest rainfall
amounts will likely be focused closest to an advancing boundary in
northeast NE, far southeast SD, and northwest IA, however light
rainfall will likely impact areas elsewhere in the forecast area.

The first half of next week will be dry with a warming trend heading
into Wednesday. Sunday will see clouds decrease through the day, but
cooler northwest flow will hold highs in the 50s. With west to
southwest flow aloft developing Monday through Wednesday, pleasant
temperatures in the 60s are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated into Thursday. Will monitor SUX for
river fog again in the morning, but SE winds may keep things too
mixy for fog to spread into the terminals.




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