Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 120437
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1037 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Forecast models have come into better agreement regarding the
upper level short wave system moving through this evening that will
impact areas along the Missouri River and the Hwy 20 corridor. Most
models continue to show a dry near-surface layer of the atmosphere,
making it difficult for light rain to reach the surface. During the
overnight period, the profile looks to saturate, so light rain is
more likely during this time period. Temperatures remain above
freezing in the lowest several thousand feet, so this suggests any
light precipitation should remain rain. By the time cooler air
arrives early Sunday morning, moisture and forcing is limited,
keeping snow mostly out of the forecast.

A surface high pressure moves southeast across the region Sunday,
bringing quiet weather and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be
close to seasonal, but a little cooler than today (Saturday).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Monday and Tuesday continue to look like the warmest days out of the
next seven. The surface pressure gradient tightens with the exiting
surface high pressure, bringing warm south winds Monday. Both
days will be breezy, but nothing out of the ordinary, with gusts
in the 20 to 30 mph range. Highs range from the upper 40s and low
50s Monday, to widespread mid 50s to low 60s in south central SD
on Tuesday.

An upper level shortwave trough moves through the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday, bringing overcast skies and precipitation to
central Iowa & central Minnesota, but the best moisture advection
and forcing remain east of our area. The biggest change in
sensible weather for the tri-state area will be a slight cool
down, with scattered light rain showers possible Tuesday evening.
Wednesday and Thursday bring seasonably mild temperatures, with
Thursday again looking breezy with south winds. Models show a near
repeat of the Tuesday night scenario on Thursday night, as
another shortwave moves through. This wave looks a bit further
west, meaning a better chance for rain over southwest MN and
northwest IA, but there is low confidence at this point given
model spread. Nevertheless, winds do look to shift to
northwesterly, ushering in cooler, slightly below average
temperatures for Friday. A cold front trailing the shortwave could
bring scattered showers to the region during the day Friday, but
this also is low confidence this far out, with this being a new
and inconsistent feature in recent model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

MVFR stratus at KSUX will drift to the south and east with
ceilings lifting after 09Z. Northwesterly winds will be light
overnight, then becoming variable on Sunday, trending toward
southeasterly by afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VandenBoogart
LONG TERM...VandenBoogart
AVIATION...JM



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