Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 140422

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1022 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Compact wave in northwest flow will bring some subtle changes to
conditions as is slides southeast across Minnesota this evening, and
pushes a cold front across the area.  Winds will increase for a
brief time behind the frontal boundary this evening, but decouple
somewhat after initial gustiness as pressure rise band slides
through by mid to late evening. Enough cold advection to keep at
least some limited coupling of the gradient through the night, which
should help to keep temps mild overnight, mainly upper 20s to near
30. Should be a fairly quick mix out during the morning, with winds
becoming brisk and cold advection acting to hold temps somewhat more
restrained, perhaps not breaking 40 degrees by early afternoon in
parts of southwest Minnesota, with otherwise lower to mid 40s. Not
expecting a great expanse of lower clouds, but possible that during
the morning through midday hours to see a few lower clouds pop up,
especially around southwest MN and neighboring areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The overall story is warmth, through the entire period and a bit
beyond. This favorable weather is care of the northern stream jet
remaining just to the north of the area with a gradually building
ridge of high pressure aloft. Other than a wave across the Canadian
border Friday night into Saturday which will bring slightly cooler
air into the area, albeit still well above normal, dry conditions
are expected and highs will mainly be in the 50s. Friday will see
the highest potential for warm conditions, especially south of a
Yankton to Jackson Minnesota line where 60s will be likely. Late in
the period, Sunday night into Monday, the models are fairly
agreeable on swinging out a broad and somewhat disorganized trough
of low pressure which will bring a threat for rainfall to the area.
Warm overnight lows will be possible Sunday night into Monday as
this low wraps up and warmer and more moist air streams in ahead.
Could see some record lows in the mid 40s Monday morning if the
pattern holds.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1022 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR is anticipated through Tuesday.




SHORT TERM...Chapman
AVIATION...MJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.