Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 182348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
648 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ATTM BUT EXPECT
IT TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS FIRE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...BUT MORE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF SOUTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 14.
NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW STONES BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO WINDS AND
ALSO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

RAIN MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD EAST OF CWFA
BY NOON. WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY,..BUT I AM CONCERNED A LITTLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
THAT MAY BE FILTERED BY CLOUDS AND BY SMOKE FROM NORTHWESTERN
FIRES. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY SO EVEN WITH THE
AFFECTS OF THE SMOKE...WE SHOULD GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

A LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN WEAK THETA E ADVECTION...AS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED SO KEPT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE EAST DURING THE
MORNING ON SUNDAY...THINK THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY
WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON
SUNDAY WITH RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH OUR MINNESOTA/IOWA ZONES TO UPPER 90S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES AND CLIMBING DEW
POINTS...INTO THE LOWER 70S...WILL BEGIN TO TOUCH ON HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND WITH CONTINUED WARMING HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR
100 FROM EAST TO WEST RESPECTIVELY. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER MOST OF THE CWA. BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TUESDAY TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN TAPER DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH STILL JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS/ECMWF THEN CONVERGE ON ANOTHER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION SOMETIME IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TOPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

EXPECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SUN. A FEW
SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS SHOULD EASE BY 01Z...AND AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD INTERSTATE 90 THE BAGGY GRADIENT SHOULD
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO PERHAPS PARTS OF SW MN AND NW
IA. LIKELY TO FIND REDEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS FIELD DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT
LIKELY ANY LOWEST CEILINGS WOULD REMAIN IN LOWER VFR RANGE. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATER TONIGHT AROUND
KHON IN THE 04-09Z RANGE...PERHAPS EVEN KFSD DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT FAR TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHAPMAN





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