Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 030809
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT IT DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH THINK THAT FOG WILL
BE LESS LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE SUMMER DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
HUMIDITY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS NOT ALL THAT
OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BOTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

SUNDAY STILL POSES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MEAN AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IT SHOULD FEEL VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE HEAT
INDEX COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP RELATIVELY FAST WEST OR
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HINTS THAT
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AROUND TO ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES STILL PLANNING ON
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOP
AFTER 08Z-09Z. WITH SHORT NIGHT...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY MAY
ONLY LAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY IN 10Z-13Z WINDOW. WILL
HOLD AT MVFR VISIBILITY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT EXPAND OVER THE AREA AGAIN...THOUGH LEVEL OF
SMOKE LAYER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH



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