Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 161649
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1149 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH EARLY WITH
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING REPLACED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE DAY FAR WEST BUT ARE
PROJECTED TO HOLD A LITTLE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COOLING
WILL BE SLOW TO GET GOING...AND WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE
DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS...AND EXPECTED MIXING...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 70.

THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD TONIGHT...DROPPING ONLY SLOWLY.
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL COOLING ASIDE FROM DIURNAL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. WITH THAT COOLING EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AN INVERSION
AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THEY
COULD BECOME SOLID IN MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MN BY THE END OF THE NIGHT
BUT WITH MODELS OFTEN OVERDONE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL HOLD
IT SHORT OF SOLID FOR NOW. THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ONLY TO 40 TO 45 AT THE SURFACE BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT IN SPITE OF THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GIVEN THE MIXING
CONTINUING NEAR THE SURFACE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LONG
RANGE. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND BREEZY DAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STRATUS TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND EAST OF A
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE LINE. WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND CLOUD
COVERAGE...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY
IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF. COULD EVEN SEE SOME NEAR WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE AT NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY FLIP TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE
CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A STRONGER SOUTHERLY PUSH ON SUNDAY WILL
MARK THE RETURN OF MUCH MILDER READINGS IN THE 60S.

SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT
FALL TEMPERATURES IN THE PICTURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN UNIFORMLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE
PACIFIC WAVE APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
MORNING. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE TAF WILL BE MVFR STRATUS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPSTREAM CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT AGL. ONCE THIS STRATUS MOVES INTO THE
TERMINAL...IT SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX


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