Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 091047
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
447 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 447 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Upper level energy is diving southward through the Mississippi
Valley very early this morning. In association with this feature,
seeing a broad area of stratus with embedded flurries sliding across
the region, and cannot rule out a few flurries over southwestern MN
early this morning. Cooler air will feed in behind the system
resulting in highs a couple of degrees lower in parts of
southwestern MN and northwestern IA for this afternoon, with
readings topping out in the mid 20s, while back to the west highs
will approach 40 over south central SD.

Tonight will continue to be fairly quiet, but low pressure over
south central Canada will track into the Upper Mississippi Valley
overnight, turning our winds to westerly as a warm front pulls
through the area. With that and winds picking up a bit late, coolest
temperatures will occur earlier in the night, then rise later. Early
lows will be near 20 from the Interstate 29 corridor eastward, to
upper 20s over south central SD.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 447 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

The warming will be most realized on Sunday as highs make it into
the upper 30s over southwestern MN to around 50 over south central
SD. On Monday another shortwave crashes into the Northern Plains on
a northwesterly upper level flow, and it will be a generally cooler
day in a cold air advection regime with highs mid 30s to lower 40s.
It will be quite windy and again boosted speeds a bit over
Superblend guidance.

Not much change in the pattern for the remainder of the upcoming
week with our area remaining in a northwesterly upper level flow,
with ridging to the west and a trough to the east. Temperatures look
to be just above normal for the entire week with highs 30s to mid
40s, and lows mainly 20s. Model discrepancies exist with regard to
track and timing of assorted shortwaves embedded within the upper
level flow, so confidence in any light precipitation timing is low
through the period - with no significant systems appearing for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

06Z TAF set will reflect some MVFR ceilings, primarily at KFSD and
KHON for the rest of tonight, but moving eastward Saturday
morning. The stratus moving down from the north is fragmented,
therefore it could be rather off and on varying between broken and
scattered conditions. KSUX may not see MVFR conditions until
Saturday morning, when a brief time frame of ceilings are
warranted.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ



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