Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 150109
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
709 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Currently, Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin lie between a
strong 1036 mb high over the northern Rockies and a deepening 995 mb
low south of Hudson Bay. This strong pressure gradient has led to a
gusty day with winds gusting out of the northwest at over 30 mph.
Yet another day where you can`t go high enough with temperatures,
with highs exceeding all guidance at reaching the low-mid 40s. The
Euro & HRRR continue to have the best handle on the warm daytime
temperatures so went with a blend of those for temperatures through
the evening.

The pressure gradient across the upper Midwest will decrease tonight
as the Hudson Bay low moves off to the east, leading to diminishing
winds after midnight. Some low-mid cloud cover is expected to
develop tonight as the upper-level vort max driving the
aforementioned low moves overhead. This cloud cover, mixing from
winds remaining 5-10 mph into the early morning and the continued
lack of snow on the ground should keep our lows from totally
cratering overnight. Raised low temperatures a few degrees from the
mid-teens north of I-94, to around 20 across southern MN and in the
Twin Cities metro. Upper-level ridging and high pressure begin to
dominate our weather Wednesday morning, leading to a pleasant but
"cool" day with highs in the low-30s across western WI to the low
40s across southwest MN.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

An unprecedented very mild temperature event will unfold by late in
the week as an anomalous upper ridge builds across the Upper
Midwest. Temperatures across western Canada, east of the Rockies
have risen into the 30s/40s this afternoon which is near record or
above record territory. As of 2 pm, Cold Lake, which is in northern
Alberta, was setting a record high of 48 degrees. These type of
temperatures are forecast to move southeast across the Northern
Plains, and Upper Midwest by Friday.

Standard anomalies of 25H/50H and 85T are much higher across Canada,
vs the Upper Midwest from today through the Saturday, but still
considered near record territory for our region. This will translate
into highs in the 50s, and 60s across southern Minnesota, with 40s
in western Wisconsin, and where snow cover still exists across
central Minnesota on Friday. Another reason there is higher
confidence in the high temperatures is that a similar pattern was
noted the same week back in 1981. The Minneapolis/St. Paul Airport,
St. Cloud and Eau Claire, Wisconsin had a string of record high
temperatures during this time period (1981) which lasted for several
days. The analog run based on the Upper Midwest, centered on the
17th of February, 1981, had highs in southern Minnesota in the low
60s, with 50s as far north as Duluth. Later forecast can redefine
highs for this period, but expect the above normal temperatures to
continue through early next week.

A weak front will move across the Upper Midwest late Friday, but the
air mass behind this front is still relatively mild for the middle
of February. Therefore, it will remain mild for both
Saturday/Sunday.

Next week remains on track for the continuation of a very mild
period, especially Monday where models forecast a storm system
moving northward across the Northern Plains. The Upper Midwest will
be on the warm side of this storm, so deep moisture, accompanied by
very mild temperatures will surge northward. Dew points Monday
afternoon could rise into the 50s which is again, very anomalous for
February. There is even a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon
as instability parameters increase. Although there is some
differences in the placement of the storm system next week,
confidence remains high enough to warrant likely pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR expected tonight and tomorrow, but high clouds will be on the
increase - winds will continue to decrease.

KMSP...
VFR expected with little in the way of aviation weather concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S at 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind W at 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ETA
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF



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