Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 150952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
452 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The last band of light rain was moving southeast across east central
Minnesota early this morning. This band of light rain was associated
with the comma-head/deformation zone of the departing storm system.
Most of this precipitation will exit Minnesota by 6 am, and through
most of west central Wisconsin by 9 am. The back edge of the cloud
cover should move through most of Minnesota by 9 am, but likely
continuing in west central Wisconsin until noon.

Another fast, but weak short wave was evident across northwest North
Dakota early this morning. This system will provide for more cloud
cover this afternoon in central/east central Minnesota, and into
west central Wisconsin during the evening. Although this short wave
is weak, there is enough moisture associated with it to produce some
sprinkles or light rain in central, and east central Minnesota late
this afternoon, and into west central Wisconsin this evening. Once
this system moves out of the area and winds die off in the evening,
temperatures will fall to near the freezing mark and allow for frost
to form. Although most areas in southern/central Minnesota have
already received a frost/freeze this season, some areas along the
Iowa border, southeast Minnesota, and portions of west central
Wisconsin have not seen a widespread frost. Therefore, if conditions
warrant, a freeze warning or a frost advisory will be issued later
today in the areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

There is little to discuss in the long term aside from the much
above normal temperatures building in.

A very quiet pattern will persist across the country this week
with an expansive mid level ridge stretching from coast to coast,
keeping the storm track well to the north. Surface high pressure
near the eastern seaboard will sustain a steady southerly flow
from the Plains through the western Great Lakes. The only
exception through the period will come Wednesday due to a brief
weakness in the ridge allowing a front to dip through. By
Thursday the front will wash out and the southerly flow will

The warmest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday when highs
could approach 80 degrees. Thermal ridging with 925 mb temps
exceeding +17C will move in ahead of a front progged to reach the
area Saturday night. Temperatures may need to be nudged upward
again in future forecasts.

Until Saturday, PoPs are zero and sky cover is quite scant. Going
to be quite a week weatherwise.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

MVFR/IFR cigs will depart eastern Minnesota by 13z, and through
most of west central Wisconsin between 15-18z. Some lower cigs
could linger around KEAU after 18z, but confidence is low. Gusty
winds from the northwest early will decrease and back to the
west/southwest by noon, and more west/northwest overnight but
under 8 kts.


MVFR cigs should depart the area by 13/14z with VFR conditions
through the rest of the taf period. Winds will initially be gusty
from the northwest, but decrease and back to the west by noon.


Tue-Thu...VFR. Winds generally from the S-SW 5-10 kts.




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