Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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931
FXUS63 KMPX 290000
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Very seasonal conditions will be the rule for the next few
days across MN and western WI. The upper air pattern essentially
remains unchanged with a ridge over the west and MN/WI in northwest
flow. At the surface...high pressure located over Lake Superior will
slowly meander south southwestward toward southwest WI over the next
48 hours. As a result surface winds will become more southeasterly
over the next 36 hours. During the overnight hours winds will be
calm or light and variable with mostly clear skies. A few more
clouds will be noted during afternoon hours on Saturday and then
mostly clear Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 348 CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Dominant high pressure will foster benign weather through the
weekend, with seasonal temperatures, light winds, and mostly sunny
skies.

Any precipitation chances through the period will be caused by
shortwaves topping the mid level ridge, accompanied by weak cold
fronts trailing south from low pressure over northern Canada. The
first such opportunity will arrive on Saturday night and Sunday,
as convection tied to a frontal boundary over the Dakotas works
eastward. However, given the broad area of dry surface high
pressure in place, any precipitation would most likely be light
and restricted to western Minnesota.

A slightly better chance for precipitation arrives Tuesday night
and Wednesday as as a cold front trailing south from a trough over northern
Manitoba/Ontario sweeps across the area. Given lack of return
flow, we will still struggle with the availability of moisture.
The 12z ECMWF was less supportive of precip for Tuesday with the
surface front, but deeper with the shortwave energy dropping south
from Manitoba/Saskatchewan over the area on Wednesday. Therefore
given moisture concerns and model differences, 30-40 percent pops
still seem about right.

After that surface high pressure will build back in for the rest
of the work week, with continued seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this period as
high pressure progresses southward over the TAF area. This also
means that winds will be calm to light overnight before increasing to
5-10kt late Saturday morning and afternoon. Few to scattered
cumulus clouds may develop by Saturday afternoon, but otherwise,
conditions will remain dry.

KMSP...
VFR conditions continue. Winds will be light and southeasterly
tonight before becoming southerly and 5-10kt late Saturday
morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind at 05-10kt.
MON...VFR. Wind SW at 05-10kt.
TUE...VFR with -TSRA possible. Wind SW to NW at 05-10kt.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...AMK



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