Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 251725
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

SAME PESKY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE THEY WILL REDEVELOP
TODAY. SHORT RANGE CONSENSUS APPEARS TO KEEP THE STRATUS SHIELD OVER
WISCONSIN...EVEN A BIT EAST OF EAU CLAIRE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE IT A TAD FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT
WILL STICK LARGELY TO THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE DISSIPATION TREND ONGOING.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 40S OVER A LARGE
AREA OF WESTERN MINNESOTA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S HERE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS MILDER FURTHER
EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WEST TO UPPER
60S EAST...WHICH COULD BE COOLER IF THE CLOUD SHIELD SETS UP FURTHER
WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. WIDESPREAD 40S ARE AGAIN FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DECENT WARMING TREND
INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TO THE SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE AREA AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA RETREATS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE MN PORTION OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TOPPING THE DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIN/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST SHOT
OF RAIN EXPECTED TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER THE
AREA. DID EXPAND THE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED INTO MORE OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE MOMENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS RATHER LOW
WITH TEMPERED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY HAVE ONE HALF INCH TO 1 INCH QPF AMOUNTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY.  THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AMPLIFIES INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WARMING
TREND/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NW WIND GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL
AS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MVFR CEILINGS AFFECTING KEAU WILL LIFT AND SCT BY THIS EVENING
AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER LAKES
BEGINS MOVING NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH KRNH
WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
MAINLY SKC PREVAILS TO THE WEST FOR THE MN TAF SITES.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND S AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH


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