Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 150517 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1117 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Made some quick updates to the short term grids tonight and
Monday, mainly to increase PoPs Monday across east central MN and
west central WI. Deep, moist DGZ and modest lift expected to
continue in those areas through tomorrow with occasional light
snow expected to continue. There may be a break late this evening
through the morning hours across east central MN, with the column
cooling below the DGZ before warmer air rotates in from the
northeast Monday afternoon. We could see an additional 2 to 4
inches across WI, with another inch or two in and around the
metro through Monday. Will be assessing the Winter Weather
Advisory later this evening for a possible extension in time.

Blowing snow is apparent across western MN this evening as
northwest winds increase. Luckily snow depth is pretty meager out
there, which will prevent conditions from becoming too bad.
Still, an inch of fluffy snow today will result in reduced
visibilities.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The main change for tonight and Monday was to add a winter
weather advisory for snowfall amounts of 2-4 inches across west
central Wisconsin. The other change includes an update to the
wind chill warning and advisory.

First, Snow has developed across all of the region in the past few
hours, with localized enhance bands across east central and south
central Minnesota as an intense area of omega, coincided within
the dendritic growth zone. Satellite imagery and regional radar
is also showing this enhanced area of lift and higher returns.

As the storm system that is moving across northern Minnesota this
afternoon pivots to the south/southeast, expect this heavier band
of snow to slowly translate east/southeast across Minnesota, and
into west central Wisconsin. Behind this main band, winds have
increased due to an area of high pressure in southern Canada,
continuing to strengthen, leading to strong high rises in the
Dakotas. Winds have increased to 20-25 kts sustained, with gusts
in excess of 35 kts along the Red River Valley. Thus, visibilities
have decreased to less than one half mile at times with blowing
snow. This area of blowing snow needs to be watched as this
segment of stronger height rises translates across western
Minnesota in the next few hours. After tonight, some residual snow
showers, especially in west central Wisconsin, will pivot across
the region with an enhanced area of warm air advection long the
deep trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes. I wouldn`t
be surprised to see an inch or two of fluffy snow as far east as
eastern Minnesota depending upon the axis of strongest warm air
advection regime.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The extended period can be characterized as a cold period to
start, then a transition to more zonal/progressive flow late next
week. As per the progressive/zonal type flow regime, temperatures
will begin to modify to near or above normal, especially late next
week, and then a possibility of active weather for next weekend.
There has been uncertainty in the models for the next storm system
during the weekend of January 20th. Previous runs had a typical
Plains/Colorado Low moving across the Upper Midwest which usually
means lots of snow. However, the latest runs have deviated some
and I wouldn`t be surprised to see more differences in the surface
low track, and long wave trough orientation. Always check back
for further updates, but at least the Arctic air mass will have
retreated north across Canada.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Light snow and IFR/MVFR visibilities will continue for the next
18-21 hours across eastern MN and WI. Mostly VFR across western
MN, but there could be some reductions in vis due to blowing
snow. Northwest winds 10-20 kts expected through the period.

KMSP...Occasional light snow will continue into Monday evening.
An additional inch or inch and a half is possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
Wed-Thu...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for MNZ047-048-
     055>058-065>067-074>078-082>085-091>093.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     MNZ043-044-050-051-058-059-066>069-075>077-083>085-092-093.

     Wind Chill Warning from 3 AM Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     MNZ041-042-047>049-054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091.

     Wind Chill Advisory from noon Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     MNZ045-052-053-060>063-070-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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