Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 231017
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
317 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
QUIETER CONDITIONS. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TODAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER AS STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
DEVELOP NEARLY AREAWIDE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY. THE
COLD FRONT...BOTH TRADITIONAL AND BACK DOOR SEGMENTS...WILL PLUNGE
INTO THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS THEY ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING NOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WILL ONLY GO DOWN AS
DAY WEARS ON. THUS...FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS ARE LOWER IN SOME PLACES
THAN CURRENT TEMPS. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT...AND UPDATE TEMPS IF NEEDED.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPS...VERY STRONG WINDS REMAIN ON
TAP...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS BEHIND THE BACK DOOR
SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NE AS
WELL...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN UNION COUNTY. COULD BRIEFLY SEE ADVISORY
CRITERIA FROM THE WESTERLY WINDS BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AS WELL.
AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE LAST FEW STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTS...THE
STRONG WINDS HAVE PICKED UP QUITE A BIT OF DUST IN SE COLORADO...
WHICH BLOWS INTO NE NM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
AREA...BELIEVE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF BLDU IN THIS REGION
TODAY...IN ADDITION TO BLSN.  OTHERWISE...HAVE ALSO MOVED UP THE
START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SE...AS WINDS HAVE ALREADY
APPROACHED CRITERIA IN THESE AREAS.

STILL LOOKING FOR GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SANGRES. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED WITH BLOWING SNOW. AS
PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED TO...THE NORTHEAST MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND IT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD
ACCORDINGLY. SHOWERS MAY HELP DRAG THE STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTS.

AFTER THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES BY TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS NM ON MONDAY REINFORCING THE COLDER AIR. SOME LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER
THAN THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK
PERTURBATION IN NW FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
WEAK RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...STRONG WINDS TODAY...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CROSS NM TODAY ALONG WITH A POTENT COLD
FRONT. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY FROM THIS
SYSTEM. GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
HIGH PEAKS. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I 40. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FOCUSED
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHER TERRAIN.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE STATE AS WELL TODAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MIN RH VALUES WILL CORRESPONDINGLY BE HIGHER TODAY WITH
20S AND 30S...EXCEPT 40S TO 50S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE VENT
RATES WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT...GOOD TO VERY GOOD CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FAR SOUTHWEST.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NM TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. RH RECOVERY WILL
BE FAIR TO GOOD FOR MOST AREAS.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS NM FROM THE NORTH MONDAY.
MORE CHILLY AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LOCATIONS TO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS TODAY. VENT RATES WILL LOWER SOME BUT BE MOSTLY IN THE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT RANGE. THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR WILL ACTUALLY PRODUCE
MEAN LOWER MIN RH VALUES FOR MONDAY DESPITE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ACTUALLY BE APPROACHED FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE UPPER GILA REGION IN SOUTHWEST CATRON
COUNTY. BUT WITH POOR HAINES VALUES AND NEAR TO BELOW TEMPERATURES
CERTAINLY NOT A BIG CONCERN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL RELAX AND SURFACE WINDS LOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SNEAK UP A LITTLE ON TUESDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THEN
MUCH MILDER HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL
THEREAFTER. THANKSGIVING IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES. MIN RH VALUES WILL HOVER IN THE
15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MAINLY LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 30S AND
40S IN MOST MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES WILL BE THE ONLY CONCERN FOR MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK. FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND SPREAD OVER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
AXIS WEAKENS AND A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SOME LATE THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT...TO THE GREATEST DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MTS AS WELL AS ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST. IN THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY GUSTS MAY REACH
45 TO NEARLY 60 KT IN LOCALIZED INSTANCES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN VALLEY AND
EASTERN PLAINS LOCATIONS MORE SO DURING DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 KT. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NW AND N CENTRAL
MTS AND CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATIONS POSS.
WINDS TO DIMINISH LOWER TERRAIN SUNDAY EVE...LESS SO ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  17  42  13 /   5   0   5   0
DULCE...........................  42  10  39   8 /  20   5  10   0
CUBA............................  38  10  36   8 /  10   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  42   8  43   7 /  10   0   5   0
EL MORRO........................  40  10  40   9 /  10   0   5   0
GRANTS..........................  45   8  43   8 /   5   0   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  43  11  40  10 /   5   0   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  59  21  55  20 /   0   0   5   0
CHAMA...........................  39   5  34   4 /  30  10  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  38  18  35  16 /   5   0   5   0
PECOS...........................  39  15  36  12 /  10  10   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  38   7  33   4 /  20  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  33   4  28   0 /  30  20  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  -3  32  -8 /  30  20  10  10
TAOS............................  39   7  34   5 /  20  10  10   5
MORA............................  39  13  37  10 /  30  20  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  43  19  40  14 /  10   0   5   0
SANTA FE........................  41  18  37  16 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  15  41  14 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  47  23  45  22 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  49  24  47  23 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  50  20  48  17 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  21  47  18 /   0   0   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  51  17  48  15 /   0   0   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  49  21  46  20 /   0   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  57  22  51  21 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  41  16  39  15 /   0   0   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  47  18  44  17 /   0   0   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44   8  41   7 /   0   5   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  16  40  14 /   0   5   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  46  20  42  18 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  51  22  44  19 /   0   0   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  48  23  45  19 /   0   0   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  42  11  40   9 /  40  20   5   5
RATON...........................  46  11  42   9 /  30  20   5   0
SPRINGER........................  45  14  43   9 /  20  20   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  45  13  42  10 /  30  20   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  44  22  48  19 /  20  20   5   0
ROY.............................  47  18  45  15 /  20  20   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  54  25  50  22 /  30  20   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  55  23  51  21 /  20  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  54  22  51  21 /  30  20   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  53  24  51  22 /  20  10   5   0
PORTALES........................  55  23  53  21 /  20  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  24  53  22 /  20  10   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  67  26  59  24 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  56  25  50  22 /   0   0   5   0
ELK.............................  53  24  48  22 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ502-504>508-511-512-522-524-527>529-533-539-540.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-518>520-525.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ535>538.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ530>532-534.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

34






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.