Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 252343 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016
00Z TAF CYCLE
Numerous tsra stretching from near KCAO south to KTCC and east of
KROW will deliver high impact bursts of heavy rain and strong
winds thru 03Z. Activity expected to taper to a larger area of
rain w/ isold -tsra thru much of the night east of the central mt
chain. Gap winds expected to push thru the RGV later this evening
and some storms may fire up along the boundary. Thick clouds will
persist much of the night for central and eastern NM. Very rich
moisture will settle into NM Sunday and unstable air will lead to
significant coverage of -tsra by early to mid day. Any area that
takes a direct hit will see very heavy rain, strong winds, and
.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016...
High pressure center aloft will become less distinct into early
Sunday then reform near to a little west of the four corners
thereafter, remaining in or very near that location through at
least midweek next week. Daytime temperatures will ease back to
near even a few degrees below seasonal normals. Moisture will be
replenished to a fair degree across west central and northwest New
Mexico over the next 48 hours increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances there, more so starting Monday than Sunday. Elsewhere it
should be sufficient for daily rounds of afternoon and evening
showers and storms, generally initiating over the higher terrain
then drifting into the lower elevations. Southeast sections of
the state will likely see lower chances for rain, especially
starting Tuesday or Wednesday.
After what looked to be a quite moist start to the day across the
nw third to half of the state and thinking that the fcst models
had underestimated rain chances there, it looks as though the
combination of the higher lvl heating-reducing clouds
accompanying the very noticeable moist plume aloft and the lower
moisture levels below that did the fcst models proud, indeed
shutting off convection so far there. This trend to continue into
tonight and begin to change Sun and more so Mon as deeper moisture
sloshes into that part of the state.
High pressure aloft will re-center itself near to a little west
of the Four Corners thereafter, remaining in or very near that
location through at least midweek next week. Daytime temps will
ease back to near even a few degrees below seasonal normals.
With the aforementioned moisture influx into west central and
northwest New Mexico over the next 48 hours increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances there, more so starting Monday than Sunday,
and likely continuing there for much if not all of the week.
Sufficient to generous moisture lvls elsewhere will likely
produce daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and storms,
generally initiating over the higher terrain then drifting into
the lower elevations, but se quarter to third of the state should
see less, perhaps next-to-no activity by mid to late week.
Active weather pattern to continue during the next seven days as the
North American Monsoon gets underway early. Upper level moisture
plume is more bark than bite across western areas. Most convective
activity today will be relegated to locations southeast of a line
from Glenwood to Las Vegas to Raton where low level moisture is
prevalent. Dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere has moved
into much of western and across portions of central New Mexico.
Sunday will be a different story as low level moisture surges
northwestward tonight. Still the far northwest gets left out Sunday,
with low level dry air remaining in place and the upper high
building back over the Four Corners.
NAM suggesting that as the upper high over the Four Corners draws in
dry air aloft from the northeast Monday...convection will be limited
to the northern mountains and far west Monday afternoon and evening.
GFS keeps dry air aloft farther southeast and keeps most mountain
areas active. NAM struggles beyond 36 hours so suspect the GFS may
be more on track with upper level moisture placement next week. GFS
keeps the upper high centered near the Four Corners and keeps
daily rounds of afternoon and evening convection for most areas.
Ventilation rates will remain in the fair to excellent range through