Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 012335
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NM TONIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT. DISTURBANCE A BIT MORE ROBUST
THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL TRY AND FORM
THIS EVENING OVER NW AND NC AREAS. WILL CARRY VCSH IN KFMN AND
KGUP UNTIL 03Z AND FROM 02Z TO 06Z IN KSAF. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO BUT IN KAEG OR KABQ BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER. NO MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWER BUT COULD BE BRIEF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS THROUGH 09Z. ALSO BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ON
THURSDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED BELOW 30 KT. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR MASS COMING INTO NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE CHILLEST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SO
FAR THIS SEASON FOR MOST SPOTS EARLY FRIDAY. NEAR TO SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE EXPERIENCED IN SOME PARTS OF ROUGHLY
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. ALSO A FEW MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD BET ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN FIFTH OF THE STATE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN A SKIFF
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE HIGHER SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COLORADO LINE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A DRY PATTERN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THAT TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK HITTING AND VIGOROUS...BUT NOT TERRIBLY MOIST...SHORT WAVE
BRUSHING THE NORTH HALF OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND EARLY THU WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TONIGHT...ANY
STORMS MAINLY THIS EVE...AND EVEN A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUSAS
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE EVEN A DUSTING ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND ALONG THE RATON RIDGE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
AT MOST JUST AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OVERALL QPF LOOKS VERY LOW. WITH AND BEHIND
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL COME A RATHER CHILLY AIR MASS BRINGING THE
LARGEST EXPANSE OF NEAR TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE AREA IMPACTED...
WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS DUE TO TERRAIN VARIATIONS AND IN LARGER URBAN
AREAS...WILL INCLUDE LOCALES GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR
CLAYTON TO VAUGHN...LOS LUNAS AND FENCE LAKE. THIS INCLUDES SOME
OF THE MORE AGRICULTURALLY SENSITIVE LOCALES SUCH AS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS...HARDING COUNTY..EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...
GUADALUPE COUNTY...CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...ESTANCIA VALLEY...SANTA FE
AND ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREAS AND...FARTHER NORTH...THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU AND LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY. HERE ONE CAN EXPECT EARLY
FRI MORN LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH ONLY THE LOWEST DIPS AND
VALLEYS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE MANY SPOTS WILL REACH
THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS.

BEYOND THURSDAY EXPECT A DRY PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THAT TIME.
THEREAFTER THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SOME PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. ATTACHED WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH THE DEWPOINTS. CONTINUED
TO GO LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHERE THE MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WAS PRESENT. THIS IMPACTS THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTING AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE IMPROVED VENTILATION RATES FOR
FRI/SATURDAY DUE TO HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS. NEXT WEEK IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE OVERALL DEPICTED PATTERN BY THE MODELS. LOOKING
FAIRLY DRY OVERALL BUT CANT RULE OUT A PASSING SHORTWAVE.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
ROCKIES REGION. SOME CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. LIGHTNING WILL MAINLY STAY NORTH OF THE AREA BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STRIKES FAVORING THE COLORADO BORDER. A FEW LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE WETTING OR GREATER THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH NORTHERN MTN PEAKS. COLD
FRONT BOTH TRADITIONAL AND BACK DOOR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL TEND TO GO UP MOST AREAS AS A
RESULT. CANT RULE OUT A FEW MTN WAVE STRONG GUSTS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS...ESPECIALLY SANDIA/MANZANOS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION WILL MAKE MORE OF A MOVE OVER THE AREA. VENTILATION RATES
LOOK TO BE PRETTY GOOD DUE TO THE STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED VENT RATES DUE TO INCREASED
TRANSPORT WINDS. ALSO BUMPED UP SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS SOME ALTHOUGH
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
HAS MORE POTENTIAL OF PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MORE FREEZING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CAN CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS DROP. A SLIGHT BUMP
UP IN HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PUSH. AT THE SAME
TIME...A MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SHOULD HAVE MOVED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MIN HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE WEST BUT REMAIN IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
EAST. VENTILATION RATES OVERALL SHOULD LOWER COMPARED TO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED RATES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.

PRETTY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE AND THIS JUST REINFORCES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTER MTN WEST. DRY CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN.
VENTILATION RATES NOW LOOK TO BE LOWER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRANSPORT WIND FORECAST.

WEAK RIDGING IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE SPLIT FLOW. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IS NOT VERY GOOD. SO HARD TO HANG YOUR HAT ON ANY ONE
FEATURE...WAVE OR RIDGE AND OUTCOMES OF THAT. VENTILATION RATES LOOK
GOOD RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST MOST AREAS BUT SUSPECT THAT WILL
CHANGE. JUST UNSURE WHICH WAY. DRIER CONDITIONS NEVERTHELESS. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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