Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 282337
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
537 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will continue across most of the area during the
next 24 hrs. There is one exception and that is across the eastern
plains including possible impacts to TCC and ROW late tonight
into Sunday morning in the form of low clouds. Only carrying
tempo SCT015 at TCC but tempo BKN015 at ROW from 10Z to 14Z
Sunday. Localized convection across the NW enough to include a
VCSH at GUP through 03Z this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures have moved into New Mexico on breezy southwest
winds today. These warmer conditions will remain in place for the
rest of the Memorial Day weekend. Moisture will surge north into
southeast New Mexico tonight. Low clouds, patchy fog, and light rain
late tonight and early Sunday will give way to a few thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon along the Texas state line. A few of these storms
could be strong to severe. A couple more storms are possible over
far eastern New Mexico Monday. A strong back door cold front will
move down the plains Tuesday and surge west into the Rio Grande
Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures will
return with the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will build back over the
state Friday into next weekend with warmer temperatures again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Much warmer and drier conditions have settled into the region as a
transient shortwave ridge passes overhead. 700mb temps over the past
24hrs at KABQ warmed from +2C to +6C and a larger inverted-V profile
was present. Light echoes on the regional radar mosaic are drier in
nature and will not likely produce any wetting rainfall (>0.10")
into the evening. A weak upper low center moving onshore southern CA
today will allow low-level flow to surge northwest overnight across
the plains. NAM Bufkit profiles show a thin layer of low cigs east
of the area from KROW to KTCC after midnight. Did not include mention
of fog however based on very light precip squeezing out of the models
it may warrant an update later tonight.

SPC day-2 outlook shows a marginal risk Sunday along the TX state
line as a dryline sharpens during the afternoon. The bulk of 12Z
guidance shows storm development trending into TX. The exception
is the 5km local WRF which has a robust area of storms firing along
I-40 east of Santa Rosa. Other than these potential storms across
the east the remainder of the region will be warm and dry with
breezy late day winds through Memorial Day. 700mb temps warm as
high as +12C Sunday and Monday.

Changes to a wetter and cooler pattern are still advertised
Tuesday through Thursday as a moist, strong back door front surges
south and west across NM. There are still some notable model
differences on the timing of the front, where the ECMWF is faster
and stronger than the GFS. In either case, temps will fall below
normal again in the east with increasing precip chances. Readings
will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal. A potentially strong
gap wind event is possible for the ABQ metro/Rio Grande Valley
Tuesday night as a strong density gradient surges west thru gaps
in the central mt chain. Any moisture that does surge west will
become trapped under a developing upper ridge by late in the week.
This will set the stage for daily rounds of terrain dominated
storms with temperatures slightly below normal for early June.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Overall weather pattern will be drying and warming Sunday/Monday
across western/central areas while the dryline will become more
pronounced across the east...thus increasing moisture there. Still
looking at a vigorous back door cold front for later Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This front is expected to combine with an upper
level disturbance slowing moving in from the west to produce
widespread wetting rain chances...initially across the east and
then transitioning westward midweek. How far west is a good
question but expecting increasing RH levels regardless. Based on
the latest mixing height forecast...the atmosphere will become
very unstable through Tuesday.

Mainly higher based showers and a little thunder across NE and NW
areas rest of this afternoon into the evening hours. Very little
rain expected and mainly virga induced wind speeds. Models continue
to show a strengthening mid level dry intrusion from south to north
overnight and should lead to poor recoveries across SW and SC areas.
At the same time...a low level moisture surge will flow northward
from the Gulf of Mexico and create a sharpening dryline overnight.
This will initially lead to low clouds and much higher RH
recoveries.

The surface dryline will be in place for strong to possibly severe
storms across the eastern third to quarter Sunday afternoon. Some
localized wetting rain possible with that activity although the bulk
of it should reside on the TX side. A few drier showers and
thunderstorms would be found across NW and NC areas due to the
approaching cut off Pacific low and increasing atmospheric
instability. The main difference will be lowering RH levels across
western/central areas due to a strengthening mid level dry
intrusion. Several hours of single digit humidity values expected
across the southwest half of the forecast area. Wind speeds will
also increase and favor southern and eastern areas. Localized strong
wind and low RH values show up across central areas but not enough
to warrant any watch/warning.

Very little change overall on Monday. Slight warming and drying
across the east due to the surface dryline getting shunted further
into TX due to atmospheric mixing. The mid level dry intrusion will
remain present across most of the area and lead to another round of
low humidities and several hours of single digits during the
afternoon. Poor to moderate RH recoveries would lead into this day
across western/central areas. The cut off low is expected to
progress a little closer to the forecast area thus shunting the
stronger mid level wind core further east. This will translate into
lessening wind across the west and continued breeziness across
southern/eastern areas. The atmosphere will remain very unstable
thus leading to some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
across NW and NC areas although more virga than anything.
Similarly...a few isolated storms would be possible across the SE.

The big change is still expected for Tuesday/Wednesday. Increasing
confidence for this change due to run to run model consistency.
Slight timing differences for the front to penetrate the Rio Grande
Valley Tuesday night but models seem to be in unison. This means one
more day of low RH values across western/central areas although not
as bone dry compared to the previous days. This is because the upper
low is expected to be over SW portions of the state. Destabilization
from the upper low should lead to some higher based showers and
thunderstorms across the western highlands later in the day. Much
more pronounced band of wetter storms would be found along the cold
frontal boundary across the east. The atmosphere should turn a bit
more stable across portions of the east and Wednesday and lead to a
thunderstorm battleground across southern and western areas. Either
way...temperatures would cool back to below normal status with
accompanying cloud cover and higher humidity.

Atmospheric ridging and another cut off Pacific low look to be the
main players late next week into the following weekend. This means
continued variability with initial warming trend and some hit and
miss drier showers and thunderstorms. The longer range models are
having a hard time resolving the cut off low so much less confidence
in the day to day forecast numbers. Wind speeds dont look to be too
strong during this period...other than what is induced by high based
cells.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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