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000
FXUS65 KABQ 172326
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MICROBURST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MODELS INDICATED RESULTING SURFACE BOUNDARY
FROM THIS STRONGER CONVECTION WILL PUSH WWD AND THROUGH PASSES
INTO THE RGV LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
35KT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND LOCALIZED BR
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KTCC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...251 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT...

LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT 230PM SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS SHIFTED WEST
INTO THIS AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE
COMPLEXES OF STORMS IN THIS AREA TO LIKELY BECOME A LARGER COMPLEX
OVER THE SE PLAINS INTO WEST TX BY THIS EVENING. HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT IN COLLABORATION
WITH THE HPC QPF AND SPC ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE. FARTHER WEST
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST A POSSIBILITY AGAIN.

TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR WITH AN EVEN LARGER AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN NM. THE CONVECTION FROM TODAY WILL FORCE THE
BACK DOOR/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONT THRU GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN OVERNIGHT CREATING SOME GUSTY CANYON WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SCOURED OUT QUICKLY IN CENTRAL NM AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DRY LINE THUS ENHANCING
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEST
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY LATE DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED. CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS WILL RETURN.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY HOT AS 700MB READINGS REACH THE +17 TO 19C RANGE
WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL LEAD
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ALMOST ALL AREAS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN OR FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL GUSTY WITH DRY
LIGHTNING AND BLOWING DUST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REDEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TX
AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE A WELL
DEFINED MOIST AXIS WILL READY TO TAP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES INTO NM. DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED POPS BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BETTER
COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. AGAIN...STORMS WILL FAVOR MORE
OF THE DRY AND GUSTY MODE. GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND SOME ON THURSDAY...

AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...DRIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A SMALL FOOTPRINT OF
WETTING RAIN CENTRAL. THE EASTERN HALF WILL SEE WETTER STORMS AS THE
MODELS PAINT A COMPLEX OF WETTING STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO TONIGHT. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SERVE AS
THE CATALYST FOR THE WETTER STORMS AND BASED ON THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION...EAST CANYON WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUS...PUSHING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE WEST. ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE GAPS.

THE OVERALL WIND FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. MIXING WILL REMAIN PRETTY HIGH ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE A COOL POOL LIMITS THE MIXING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST. CONTINUED STORMINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST AND MOST LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. MOST LIKELY DRIER OVER THE SANGRES BUT JUST DEPENDS ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT.
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REALLY INCREASE  ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD TO HALF AS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION INTENSIFIES. HAINES
VALUES WILL BE 6 ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF WITH MUCH LOWER
READINGS ACROSS THE EAST. SEEING SOME SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS AS WELL AS A LOCALIZED RED FLAG SIGNATURE ACROSS
THE LOWER SAN JUANS OR TUSAS MTNS OF ZONE 102. SMALL ENOUGH COVERAGE
TO NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR THAT AREA.

THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND PUSH INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH
NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWTH PERIOD WOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND
MOST LIKELY LAST INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE
INTENSIFICATION...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND A LEE TROUGH WILL
ALSO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ABOVE
MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE ITS MID JUNE WITH A STEEP SUN ANGLE AND MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL ALSO TEND TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA EXCLUDING THE FAR EAST
SO SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE POOR WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS THURSDAY
MORNING. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY MORNING
RECOVERIES WILL BE MOISTURE PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST VIA THE CENTRAL
MTN GAPS DUE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OR ELSE...CONDITIONS
WOULD BE WORSE DURING THAT OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD BY 3 TO 10 DEGREES.

THE MAJOR THREATS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COMBO SUPER HAINES AND RED
FLAG CONDITIONS FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS TO THE LEE
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A SIGNATURE TO WARRANT
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 109 AND 106 WITH WIND SPEEDS MORE OF
A LIMITER BUT SUPER HAINES BEING PRETTY EXPANSIVE. ZONES 104 AND 108 ARE
ALSO LIMITED DUE TO HIGHER HUMIDITY VIA THE DRYLINE NEAR THE TX
STATE LINE. THE STRONGEST CRITICAL SIGNATURE LIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF.

THE CRITICAL AREA SHRINKS ON THURSDAY BUT STILL CRITICAL OVER THE
HIGHEST RIDGES AS WELL AS AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. NOT
GOING TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE WATCHING MODEL
TRENDS AS FAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND WIND SPEEDS PROJECTED FOR
THE SURFACE. SORT OF MARGINAL AS IT CONCERNS SPEEDS BUT STILL
CRITICAL DUE TO THE WARMTH/DRYNESS AND INSTABILITY. LESS OF A SUPER
HAINES SIGNATURE FOR THURSDAY BUT HAINES 6 VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
RAMPANT. CANT RULE OUT SOME FASTER MOVING HIGH BASED STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER AND MAKE FOR WETTER STORMS.

HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST AND THE MORE MOIST AIR TO THE EAST. WIND FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN
SOME AS THE TROUGH WASHES OUT ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOWER STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.
SUSPECT THIS WILL CHANGE SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY. SIMILAR
PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS MORE
TROUGH EFFECTS THAN ECWMF BUT EXPECTING DRIER STORMS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TO NE STORM MOVEMENT.
SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES POSSIBLE. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$