Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
232 FXUS65 KABQ 172121 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 321 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Except for a few sprinkles with gusty virga showers over northeast areas early this evening, dry weather is forecast for the next seven days. High temperatures will climb a little to around 12 degrees above 1991 to 2020 averages Sunday and Monday, when Roswell will reach over 100 degrees for the first time this year. Temperatures will then cool some areawide Tuesday, and up to 5 degrees further across central and eastern areas Wednesday, before rebounding areawide Thursday. Breezy to windy conditions will also develop across eastern areas Sunday, then areawide Monday and Tuesday when it will be dry enough for widespread fire weather concerns. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 A low amplitude upper level ridge is moving over the area behind the departing upper low/trough. Isolated high-based convection is popping up over Lincoln County and may get going across northeast NM this evening, but very little to no measurable rainfall is expected. Strong/erratic wind gusts will be the most likely impact from this paltry round of convection. Breezy to locally windy conditions materializing now will decouple quickly this evening. The warming will continue Saturday as the upper level ridge amplifies directly overhead. Daytime temperatures will be above normal areawide Saturday and may hit 100 degrees for the first time this year in Roswell, although our official forecast is for a high of 99. Otherwise, Saturday will be filled with abundant sunshine and afternoon breezes. A few late day buildups will likely produce virga and strong/erratic wind gusts late Saturday across/near the northern mountains. Saturday night will be warmer, with lows above normal most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Dry weather is forecast through the extended forecast as the storm track remains north of New Mexico. Sunday through Monday, multiple shortwave troughs will migrate through a broader longwave trough over the northwest US and northern/central Rockies, keeping southwest flow aloft strong enough over northern and central NM for breezy to windy conditions. The strongest winds look to occur Monday and Tuesday afternoons and early evenings, when the polar jet stream will cross overhead with surface wind gusts mostly from 35-45 mph, very low humidities, and widespread fire weather concerns. The dry southwest flow will be quite warm with high temperatures generally from a few to around 12 degrees above 1991-2020 averages both Sunday and Monday. Roswell looks to reach 100 F (actually 101 F) Sunday and Monday for the first time this year. Pacific and backdoor cold fronts will cross Tuesday afternoon and night dropping high temperatures around 4-9 degrees across the forecast area on Tuesday, then another few to 5 degrees central and east on Wednesday. Winds will also weaken Wednesday and Thursday as the stronger flow aloft shifts east of NM, but it will still be gusty each afternoon with high temperatures trending warmer again starting Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. Gusty west-northwest winds will prevail this afternoon across central and western NM, with occasional gusts to between 20-30kts. A few late day buildups may bring strong/erratic wind gusts near KLVS, KROW and possibly KTCC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 A warming/drying trend is underway as an upper level ridge moves over the area through Saturday. The ridge will be replaced with increasing westerlies Sunday, with hot, dry and unstable conditions overtaking the area. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across much of eastern NM on Sunday, but no watches/warnings are expected at this time due to recent rainfall and greenup. Stronger winds aloft and a deeper lee side trough are forecast Monday ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast Monday, but the main area of concern will be west of the central mountain chain where fuels are likely more receptive to ignitions and large fire growth. Will consider a watch for western areas on later shifts. Strong winds aloft move over the area Tuesday, which is looking like another fairly widespread critical fire weather day. Minimum humidity will dip into the single digits for several hours across portions of the area each day next week, especially across southern areas. Hot, dry and unstable conditions with the potential for fire growth will persist from mid to late next week, with the return of more widespread critical fire weather conditions by Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 47 85 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 36 79 40 77 / 0 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 43 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 40 82 39 78 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 43 78 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 42 82 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 44 81 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 51 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 47 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 40 84 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 54 88 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 38 73 38 70 / 0 5 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 49 78 52 75 / 0 5 5 0 Pecos........................... 45 79 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 73 42 70 / 0 10 10 0 Red River....................... 34 67 35 67 / 5 10 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 31 71 32 69 / 0 5 5 0 Taos............................ 38 79 41 77 / 0 0 5 0 Mora............................ 42 76 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 45 85 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 49 80 51 78 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 88 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 50 89 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 51 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 88 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 51 87 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 88 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 84 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 52 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 54 90 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 78 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 49 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 45 82 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 84 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 45 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 47 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 47 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 78 53 80 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 45 78 47 77 / 10 10 5 0 Raton........................... 42 83 46 81 / 10 10 5 0 Springer........................ 42 85 47 82 / 5 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 45 81 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 53 86 54 88 / 0 5 0 0 Roy............................. 47 84 52 83 / 10 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 92 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 51 89 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 93 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 92 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 53 93 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 52 93 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 58 99 62 101 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 54 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 51 86 55 89 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...11