Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 261810 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1210 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
The stream of low level moisture flowing into the area from the
southeast is decreasing, and drier air has begun to filter into the
area from the south and west. There will be a resultant downtick in
thunderstorm coverage this afternoon into tonight with mainly
scattered cells traveling south and south southeastward off the
mountains. Models vary on how much of this activity will reach plains
locations like TCC and ROW. A ridge axis over the Four Corners
suggests less of a southeastward component to storm motion enabling
storms to stay closer to the elevated terrain. By tonight, drier air
over the region, and south and southwest winds across the eastern
plains, will result in less low cloud cover with areas from the
Caprock southward favored for mainly MVFR conditions. The low clouds
could impact ROW early Tuesday morning.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A round of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms is forecast
for all but the far northwest part of the state today. Dry air will
spread from west to east across the state Tuesday, shutting down
showers and storms across western and central locations. Dry
conditions will continue through Thursday along with temperatures
slightly above average. A backdoor front will bring cooler
temperatures along with chances for thunderstorms mainly to eastern
New Mexico Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A round of mainly scattered convection will develop this afternoon
and evening across all but the northwest quarter of the state. Very
dry air aloft is forecast to move into far northwest NM this
afternoon and evening. 30 kts of northwest flow at jet level will
keep isolated severe convection possible if not likely east of the
central mountain chain this afternoon and early evening. Very dry air
aloft will put an end to all but a few showers or storms across ern
NM Tuesday and areawide Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will
warm a few degrees each day, reaching near average west and slightly
above average central and east Wednesday, continuing into Thursday.

GFS and ECMWF continue to bring a backdoor boundary/front into ern
NM Thursday night and Friday. ECMWF breaks out convection across ern
NM Friday while the GFS keeps things too stable for convection with
stronger low level caa. Odds are with the ECMWF solution given the
fact that it`s late June with northwest flow aloft and ely or sely
low level flow. A similar scenario continues into the weekend with
a moist ely low level flow continuing under west or southwest flow
aloft ahead of a weak upper level trough to the west.

Good to see both the operational GFS and ECMWF 500 mb heights looking
quite "monsoonish" beyond day 7 and approaching the 4th of July. A
stronger than average Aleutian Low continues in tact, which could act
to force the Four Corners high east of NM, resulting in an active
southerly stream of moisture over NM/AZ or act to keep the upper
level westerlies farther south, disrupting the sly moisture plume
more than average.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorms impacted much
of the northern and central New Mexico forecast area yesterday,
ample moisture has been left behind with abundant cloud cover and
good to excellent humidity recovery in progress. The exception to
this overview would be in the far western zones toward the NM-AZ
border and also much of the northwestern plateau of NM where drier
air limited storm development yesterday and lower humidity
recovery continues.

An active thunderstorm pattern will redevelop today, although the
coverage of storms is expected to be less widespread than Sunday.
Storms will first develop over the higher terrain of the Continental
Divide and the central mountain chain, and some scattered storms
could eventually take shape in the central valleys and the eastern
plains, however the more north-to-south steering flow could limit
the coverage in the plains some. Today`s temperatures and RH will
trend very comparably to yesterday with the eastern plains remaining
5 to 10 degrees below normal. Haines values of 6 will be found in
the northwest where the drier/hotter airmass will hold its ground.

By Tuesday, a pattern shift will begin to unfold as the upper level
dome of high pressure southwest of NM starts to succumb to stronger
westerly flow aloft. This will spread lower dewpoints into NM,
especially in western parts of the state. This will ultimately act
to impede thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon with
temperatures able to climb a few degrees in the drier air. RH will
be lowest generally along and west of the Rio Grande with less than
15 percent being observed over most western zones late Tuesday
afternoon. On top of this, western zones will become more unstable
with Haines indices of 6 becoming more widespread.

High pressure will be squashed farther south into Old Mexico on
Wednesday, allowing the dry air to invade farther into NM,
effectively eradicating thunderstorm development. The drier air will
arrive with warmer temperatures and stronger westerly breezes. As
alluded to in earlier discussions, this shift in the pattern could
prove crucial Wednesday and also into Thursday, as moisture will be
scoured out, and conditions will quickly turn unstable with
widespread Haines values of 6. Winds are forecast to largely stay
beneath critical thresholds on both Wednesday and Thursday, but
these days will still warrant close attention; any recent lightning
ignitions could flare up during this warmer, drier, and unstable
stint.

Forecast models are back to an advertisement of a back door cold
front Thursday night into early Friday. At this time the surface
boundary is depicted over the eastern plains of NM by Friday, not
nearly as intrusive as the most recent one. Still, some modest
temperature relief and moisture return for the eastern plains of the
forecast area appear in order Friday, and perhaps Saturday and
Sunday as secondary frontal pushes flirt with the northeast/eastern
plains of NM. Scattered storms could develop where sufficient
moisture arrives with the front. Otherwise, seasonably hot and dry
conditions will likely prevail for central to western NM during the
Friday to Sunday stretch.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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