Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 020352 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
952 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS ENDING ACROSS N/C NEW MEXICO. MAINLY
STRATIFORM TYPE OF EVENT WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION DURING THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
NM SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY JUST
DIE OUT OVER CENTRAL AREAS. UPDATED POPS AND ENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...610 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH
SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TS THROUGH EVENING WITH WET MICROBURSTS LIKELY.
A DISTURBANCE PASSING NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND ANOTHER ONE
EXITING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACTIVE OVER W AND NE PARTS OF NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TRUSTED
MESOSCALE MODEL IS BRINGING ONE CLUSTER OF CELLS NEWD THROUGH THE
KABQ AND KSAF AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWEST
PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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