193
FXUS65 KABQ 151143 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 119 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon, mainly
north of Interstate 40. Showers and thunderstorms continue into
this evening and overnight thanks to a backdoor cold front sliding
in from the northeast and east. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms remain on track for much of the forecast area east of the
Continental Divide. A few of the thunderstorms could become strong
to severe over far northeast NM this afternoon and over east-
central and southeast plains Thursday. Dry and much warmer weather
is forecast Friday through next weekend. Sunday continues to look
like the hottest day of the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 119 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Convective initiation will begin around noon today along the east
facing slopes of the high terrain of northern and western NM. Weak
mid-level winds associated with an upper-low will favor slow storm
motions over western NM so updrafts will go down as quickly as they
come up. On the other hand, storms that drift off the east slopes of
the Sangre de Cristo mtns will organize as they move down into the
more moist and unstable environment in the northeast plains. Bulk
shear of 30-40kts will be enough to organize storms as they approach
the TX border. Initially, large hail will be the main threat, but
wouldn`t be surprised if colliding cold pools end up creating storm
clusters and shifting the severe threat more to damaging wind during
the late afternoon/evening hours. Lowering cloud bases will allow
for more efficient rainfall rates in the late afternoon and evening
as well so flash flooding can also not be ruled out in the northeast
if clusters of storms do end up developing.

After sunset, all eyes turn to the central mtn chain where easterly
upslope flow along the outflow aided backdoor cold front will lead
to the development of widespread showers and storms. The current
thinking is that precipitation rates will be on the lower side,
limiting flash flooding potential over the HPCC burn scar. That being
said, a solid 3-6 hours of light to moderate rainfall rates could
end up producing upwards of 0.5" of rainfall overnight. The backdoor
front will push through the gaps of the central mtn chain, but gusty
east winds in Albuquerque appear unlikely. However, more robust
convection over the central highlands during the evening hours could
boost winds higher than currently forecast. Model guidance is in
quite good agreement that a broad swath of precipitation will
develop in central NM along a convergence zone where the backdoor
front meets an upper-low crossing over the state. This cluster of
showers and storms will intensify as it drifts eastward into the
eastern plains during the afternoon hours Thursday. Strong vertical
speed shear associated with the upper-low could organize these
storms into a QCLS with both a large hail and damaging wind threat
that will be maximized in the southeast plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will be moving off to the
east of NM Thursday evening. A rapid warm up continues on track
for Friday with temperatures forecast to warm 10 to as much as 20
degrees above Thursday`s high temperature readings. The warming
trend continues through the weekend underneath high pressure aloft
Saturday and increasing southwest flow aloft Sunday. Winds will
likely increase somewhat into the breezy category Sunday beneath
the increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of a southern stream
closed low on approach into southern CA. GFS and ECMWF are now in
better agreement with regard to Sunday night and Monday. Both
models now have the northern stream (Asian Pacific or polar jet
stream) kicking out the closed southern stream (subtropical jet)
low over NM on Monday. Windy conditions result areawide for much
of the day Monday into Monday evening. A slightly cooler airmass
is forecast to move in behind the associated surface cold front
Tuesday, mainly east. Global models remain in good agreement for
Wednesday through the latter half of next week with dry southwest
flow aloft over NM keeping the dryline east of the state.

In other news, weather prediction models are now showing the
first signs of the strong subsidence or sinking air that is the
(doldrum) monsoon high developing over Mexico late this weekend
or into early this week. Keep in mind that a rapidly cooling
equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean (happening currently) is a good
thing if you prefer more rain in NM during the monsoon. Why? A
cooler eastern tropical Pacific results in fewer deep tropical
thunderstorm clusters during summer. It`s these thunderstorms that
transfer large amounts of latent heat high up into the lower
atmosphere creating large temperature differences between the
tropics and poles as say compared to last summer during El Nino.
Weaker temperature differences between the poles and tropics
result in a weaker than average southern stream or subtropical jet
stream. So what? Less deep convection this upcoming summer
typically helps any low level moisture advection remain in place
longer for daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms. If the
subtropical jet is relatively strong like last summer due to the
warmer waters associated with El Nino, dry airmasses from the
Mojave Desert and Great Basin are more frequent and more likely to
scour out low level moisture from western and central NM
especially.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Showers and storms will develop over the high terrain of western
and northern NM around 18Z, increasing in coverage through the
afternoon. As storms drift of the northern mountains into the
northeast and east-central plains, they will intensify and
potentially produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Showers
and storms in central and western areas will not be severe, but
could produce gusty outflow winds up to 40kts. A backdoor cold
front, aided by convective outflows, will surge south and westward
overnight into the Rio Grande Valley. Gusts up to 30kts are
possible along and behind this boundary.

A convergence zone sets up across central NM overnight, increasing
the coverage of rain showers. MVFR cigs may develop in a few
areas between 06Z and 12Z, favoring locations in and around the
northern mtns, including KAXX, KSKX, and KLVS.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Scattered showers and storms will favor western and northeastern NM
this afternoon and evening. Storms in eastern NM will organize and
potentially cluster together as they move off the central mtn chain
into the eastern plains during the mid to late afternoon.
Precipitation increases in coverage over central NM overnight and
locally heavy rainfall could create flash flooding over recent burn
scars along the central mtn chain. The severe storm threat on
Thursday will focus over the southeast plains where 0.25"-1" of rain
may fall. Dry weather returns Friday as the upper-low exits to the
east. The drier airmass combined with rising heights and mostly
clear skies will bring temps up to the highest values of the season
thus far Friday and over the weekend. Increasing southwest winds
will create excellent ventilation areawide during this time period,
but critical fire weather conditions will also increase in coverage
Sunday into the early part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  48  74  45 /   5  10  10   0
Dulce...........................  70  40  65  34 /  30  20  50   5
Cuba............................  70  44  62  40 /  40  30  50   5
Gallup..........................  72  44  70  37 /  30  30  20   0
El Morro........................  70  43  63  40 /  40  50  50   5
Grants..........................  72  43  67  37 /  30  40  40   5
Quemado.........................  71  43  66  42 /  30  30  40  10
Magdalena.......................  74  46  64  47 /  20  30  60  10
Datil...........................  71  43  64  44 /  20  30  60  10
Reserve.........................  77  42  70  36 /  20  20  40   5
Glenwood........................  81  51  73  47 /   5  10  40   0
Chama...........................  63  39  58  34 /  50  30  70  10
Los Alamos......................  68  47  60  45 /  50  50  70  10
Pecos...........................  71  45  57  42 /  30  70  90  10
Cerro/Questa....................  63  42  56  42 /  60  60  70  10
Red River.......................  56  36  50  31 /  70  70  90  10
Angel Fire......................  61  35  51  27 /  50  80  80  10
Taos............................  68  41  60  35 /  40  50  70  10
Mora............................  67  41  54  37 /  40  70  90  10
Espanola........................  74  48  66  45 /  40  40  60  10
Santa Fe........................  71  47  59  45 /  30  60  80  10
Santa Fe Airport................  75  47  62  44 /  20  50  70  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  52  65  52 /  20  50  60  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  52  66  51 /  10  40  50   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  53  68  47 /  10  40  50   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  53  68  49 /  10  50  50   5
Belen...........................  83  51  71  47 /  10  40  50  10
Bernalillo......................  80  52  68  49 /  10  50  50   5
Bosque Farms....................  82  51  70  45 /  10  40  50   5
Corrales........................  81  53  68  48 /  10  50  50   5
Los Lunas.......................  82  51  70  47 /  10  40  50   5
Placitas........................  77  50  63  49 /  20  50  60  10
Rio Rancho......................  80  53  68  50 /  10  50  50   5
Socorro.........................  84  53  72  50 /  10  20  50  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  72  47  58  46 /  20  50  70  10
Tijeras.........................  75  47  60  43 /  20  50  70  10
Edgewood........................  76  46  59  40 /  10  50  70  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  45  60  37 /  10  50  70  10
Clines Corners..................  73  44  55  40 /  10  40  70  10
Mountainair.....................  76  46  60  41 /  10  50  60  10
Gran Quivira....................  77  46  63  42 /   5  30  60  10
Carrizozo.......................  82  51  68  49 /   0  10  60  10
Ruidoso.........................  75  46  63  44 /   5   5  80  10
Capulin.........................  66  44  55  39 /  80  60  60  10
Raton...........................  70  46  60  39 /  70  70  70   5
Springer........................  73  47  60  39 /  60  70  70  10
Las Vegas.......................  72  44  57  39 /  30  60  80  10
Clayton.........................  76  50  64  45 /  50  50  50  10
Roy.............................  74  48  59  42 /  40  60  80  10
Conchas.........................  85  54  66  47 /  20  50  60  20
Santa Rosa......................  83  51  63  45 /  10  30  60  10
Tucumcari.......................  85  53  68  47 /  20  40  60  30
Clovis..........................  87  54  70  50 /  10  20  60  40
Portales........................  90  54  72  47 /  10  20  60  30
Fort Sumner.....................  88  54  72  47 /  10  20  70  20
Roswell.........................  93  60  77  55 /   0   5  60  10
Picacho.........................  85  52  70  47 /  10   5  70  10
Elk.............................  83  49  69  45 /   0   5  60  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...16