Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 171751 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1151 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Dry air will put the kibosh on thunderstorms in western and central
New Mexico today. However, there will be sufficient moisture in the
eastern tier of the state for isolated to scattered storms to take
shape, some of which could turn strong to severe with heavy
downpours, gusty downburst winds, and large hail. Downpours will
briefly bring ceilings/visibility to MVFR/IFR status. Most of this
activity should exit into Texas this evening. Into Friday, storms
will be isolated to scattered from the Sacramento mountains of south
central New Mexico into the east central plains of the state.



.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017...
A couple more mainly dry days are is store before the moisture gates
re-open from the south over the weekend. A few showers and
thunderstorms will develop over northeast and far east-central today
and across the south-central mountain Friday. High temperatures
Thursday and Friday will be several degrees above average. Moisture
will begin increasing from the south Saturday, resulting in isolated
thunderstorms over the mountains and northeast quarter. By Sunday,
deep monsoon moisture will surge northward into the state. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will result, continuing into
early next week.


Dry southwest flow aloft setting up over the state as a weak upper
level trough/low stalls over southern CA. At the surface, a backdoor
boundary has essentially stalled near a Las Vegas to Tucumcari line.
Today and Friday will be primarily dry with the exception of isolated
showers and storms across northeast and east-central NM today and
over the south- central mountains Friday. A few strong to severe
storms are possible across the east and northeast this afternoon and
evening. Weather prediction models have been in good agreement for
days regarding Sunday and Monday, bringing up deep subtropical
moisture into the state. And it`s not just moisture coming up. A
couple of subtropical warm core easterly waves will accompany the
moisture both days. These waves will help get convection going
despite lots of cloud cover and cooler temps. Model RH progs aloft
suggesting the mid and northern RGV may have a bit of a break in
cloud cover for the eclipse Monday.

GFS and ECWMF then depart with one another for Tuesday and beyond.
GFS brings up another warm core wave Tuesday while the ECWMF builds
the subtropical high northward over NM, shutting down most convection.
Both models bring a closed upper low ashore over southern CA
Wednesday with the resulting southwest flow aloft bringing up another
slug of subtropical moisture across NM. Forecast timing confidence
beyond Monday remains rather low given the operational model
differences but it appears that either Wednesday or Thursday will be
rather active given the available moisture and the large scale
forcing in the form of a weakening upper low lifting newd near the
Four Corners.



Good to excellent humidity recovery noted this morning across
eastern New Mexico, where low level moisture and some saturated
soils reside. This moisture will fuel wetting storms later today
across the east, but will be limited in coverage. Elsewhere across
central and western New Mexico, dry conditions will persist with
daytime temperatures generally near normal. The upper high will
build/shift NW into central New Mexico Friday, which looks to be the
warmest day of the next seven for many locales. Wetting storms, if
any, look to be confined to south central and southeast portions of
the state Friday.

A moistening/cooling trend is in play for the weekend and into early
next week as the upper high gradually transitions back to over
central TX and a California trough develops/deepens, allowing a
monsoon moisture plume to stream north from Mexico over NM/AZ.
Chances for wetting rain will trend up during this period, with
daytime temperature trending below normal. A bit of a warming/drying
trend forecast around the middle of next week as the upper high
shifts back west to over northern Mexico and southern New Mexico,
although medium range model solution differences are making for a
lower confidence forecast beyond Wednesday.





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