Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211134 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
434 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR cigs currently expanding and slowly lowering across central and
northern New Mexico, with areas of mountain obscurations. Some
deterioration is forecast overnight, especially across north central
and northwest New Mexico where snow showers are forecast to break-out
ahead of an approaching upper level trough. MVFR conditions in snow
most likely at KGUP this evening, but may impact KSAF and KFMN as
well. An MVFR low stratus deck is forecast to develop overnight
across eastern New Mexico and will likely impact KLVS, KTCC and KROW.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...342 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will move westward to the central mountains
this morning with significantly colder air behind the front. High
temperatures today will be 15 to 25 degrees below normal across the
eastern plains and 5 to 15 degrees below normal from the central
mountains west. A storm in the southern Great Basin this morning
will move across Arizona tonight and Thursday, bringing rain and snow
to portions of western and central New Mexico late today through
Thursday. A second storm system will move across Arizona Friday, and
rain and snow will develop across western and central New Mexico
Friday and Friday night. A Pacific cold front will sweep across New
Mexico Saturday with below normal temperatures and lingering snow
showers across northern New Mexico. An upper level disturbance will
cross northern New Mexico Sunday with continued below normal
temperatures and snow showers in the northern mountains. Temperatures
will remain below normal until Tuesday, when winds aloft shift to
the southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A strong backdoor cold front moving through the eastern plains and
eastern highlands early this morning has dropped temperatures into
the single numbers across northeastern NM and into the teens and
lower 20s across east central NM. The front will move west of the
central mountains late this morning, and then surface winds will back
to the south this afternoon, as a trough moves southward into the
southern Great Basin and southern CA. High temperatures today will
be 15 to 25 degrees below normal in eastern NM and 5 to 15 degrees
below normal from the central mountains west. Moisture advection to
the east of the trough will increase this afternoon and evening
across western and central NM and will cause coverage of clouds and
precipitation to increase by this evening. Precipitation will change
to all snow across western and central NM by late this evening. Snow
advisories have been issued for the northwest mountains and
highlands, the north central mountains and the Upper Rio Grande
Valley for tonight and Thursday. Precipitation across northern NM
will end Thursday evening, as the trough weakens and moves to the
northeast into southern CO.

Another upper level trough will track across AZ Friday and then lift
quickly to the northeast across northern NM Friday night. This
system will bring several inches of new snow to northern NM with
lighter amounts across the rest of central and western NM.
Temperatures Friday will be below normal, except near normal in the
eastern plains. A Pacific cold front will move across NM Saturday
with a reinforcement of colder air and continued below normal
temperatures. A weak upper level system will cross northern NM Sunday
with a few snow showers. West flow aloft Monday will transition to
southwest flow aloft Tuesday, allowing temperatures to slowly
moderate to near normal by Tuesday afternoon.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Well below normal temperatures will prevail today across eastern New
Mexico behind the backdoor segment of a strong cold front. Clouds
will trend up and keep temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal across
central and western portions of the area. A potent shortwave trough,
currently over central California and the Great Basin, will approach
today and push overhead late tonight into Thursday, bringing another
round of snow to the western and northern mountains and surrounding
highlands. The northern mountains and surrounding highlands will be
favored for wetting precipitation and snowfall accumulations.

Yet another potent upper level trough/low and associated cold
front will approach from the west Friday. A few hours of elevated
fire weather conditions are likely Friday afternoon across the far
eastern plains where dry and breezy conditions will prevail with
above normal temperatures. The trough will bring strong winds across
the area late Friday through early Saturday, with good chances for
wetting precipitation to the western and northern higher terrain.
Cooler conditions will prevail behind the cold front Saturday, but a
warming trend will begin Sunday with temperatures rising back up
toward normal early next week. Several hours of elevated fire
weather conditions are likely each afternoon early next week across
the eastern plains, with moderate dry westerly flow forecast.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST
Thursday for the following zones... NMZ503-504-510-511-513-516.

&&

$$

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