Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 262349 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016
00Z TAF CYCLE
An arc of -shra/tsra along the I-40 corridor producing brief vsby
restrictions and gusty winds from heavy rain will shift southward
toward the southern deserts this evening. Remnant mid/high cloud
cover will thin overnight most areas. Coverage of shra/tsra Monday
is expected to focus over western NM and over the southeast plains
with highest chance for impacts at KGUP and KROW. Some low clouds
were indicated near 030 at KROW tonight but confidence too low to
include in 00Z TAF.
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016...
As an upper level high pressure center remains over the Four
Corners through Tuesday, afternoon and evening rounds of showers
and thunderstorms are expected primarily over the western and
northern mountains. The upper high is forecast to shift west
somewhat Tuesday night allowing upper level moisture to increase,
resulting in better chances for showers and thunderstorms across central
and eastern areas of the state Wednesday through Friday.
Scattered mainly garden variety thunderstorms off to an early
start late this morning. Closed upper low spinning over Midland TX
is responsible for the scattered thunderstorms over portions of
southeast NM through the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue until an hour or two after sunset before gradually
dissipating. GFS indicating isolated activity is possible for most
areas after midnight but is likely overdone given forecast lifted
index values after sunset.
Main changes for Monday and Tuesday will be an upper level dry
slot that works in from the northeast. GFS is now on board with
the NAM, limiting thunderstorm coverage underneath this very dry
air from the northeast plains swwd to the middle RGV. Lowered
precip chances across these areas as a result. Favored areas for
storms will be across the northern and western mountains and
across the eastern plains south of I-40.
Models are in good agreement that the upper high will weaken
slightly as it shifts westward Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
resulting upper level flow makes a squeeze play on the dry slot,
all but eliminating it by Wednesday afternoon. Better thunderstorms
chances return to central and eastern NM Wednesday as a result.
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase Thursday and Friday
as an upper level short-wave trough approaching the PACNW forces
the upper high eastward. GFS and ECMWF agree that the upper high
center will remains southeast of NM through the holiday weekend.
ECMWF remains quite bullish with natural firework chances on the
fourth of July. Still like to see a few more models runs but the
trends in the ECMWF ensembles suggesting at least the first 10
days of July may be quite active.
Atmospheric moisture is trending up along with relative humidity at
the surface and chances for wetting rain as the 2016 Monsoon looks
to get underway. Good chances for wetting rain this evening
generally along and east of the divide...with drier conditions west
of the divide. Humidity recovery will improve tonight and be good to
excellent most areas...with fair recovery generally west of the
divide. Storms will be moving slowly to the south and west this
evening...except where propagating on outflows.
The upper high will continue over the Great Basin and Southern
Rockies Monday...with plenty of moisture in place for more daytime
heating triggered showers and thunderstorms. Chances for wetting
rain on Monday will favor the northern and western higher terrain...
with a bit of a downtrend east as the upper high expands a ridge
axis southeast over the eastern plains. Storms will generally be
moving west or southwest at 10 mph Monday.
The 12z model solutions depart on the placement and strength/height
of the upper high going into mid week...with the ECMWF more rain-
friendly given lower pressure heights and the upper high displaced
further south and east over central/southern Texas. An uptick in
storms makes sense going from mid to late week as the upper high
consolidates near the TX/LA border and our area remains on the
periphery with moist southerly flow in the low/mid levels of the
atmosphere. Daytime temperatures from mid to late week look to be
within a few degrees of normal and humidity recovery is forecast to
be good to excellent...except fair over the northwest. No
significant changes/trends going into the weekend with the upper
high remaining over Texas.