Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 071553 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
853 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated this morning`s forecast to include mention of light snow
in the Sandias and Manzanos, primarily above about 7k ft. Also
lowered high temperatures across the northeast highlands and
plains where the modified arctic cold front has moved through.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...442 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Low clouds, flirting with MVFR cigs, have developed across the
northwest third of the state early this morning. These low clouds
should burn off by 18z, but a few flurries are possible prior.
Elsewhere, fog has developed near the NM/TX border across
southeast NM and some models still suggesting that some fog may
develop along the Pecos River valley in the vcnty of KROW this
morning. Confidence is not high that this will occur, but can`t
rule it out completely. Strong westerly winds will continue
through early aftn across the high peaks and adjacent highlands.
Gusts near 45kt are likely at mt top. Otherwise, cold front will
slide southward today and this eve. NW winds will increase
across central and western NM behind the front while winds shift
N/NE across the plains. Gusty winds are expected behind the
front. Late tonight, widespread MVFR to IFR cigs are expected east
of the central mt chain while spotty low cigs will also be
possible across west central NM once again.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Progressive weather pattern in place across NM with no big storms
in sight. Northwest flow aloft will dominate through the forecast
period. A couple upper level disturbances will pass to our north
and associated surface cold fronts will bring rounds of cold air
and gusty winds, but not much snow.

First short wave trough is crossing NM now with a potent surface
front bringing in blustery conditions and the coldest air of the
season so far for most locations by tonight and Thursday. Milder
conditions with less wind will settle over NM Friday. The next
short wave trough will cross the state this weekend with
increasing winds and decreasing temperatures. Dry with mostly
above normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Gusty winds over the northern mountains onto their east slopes
early this morning, as well as the Chuska and Zuni mountains. A
short wave trough is crossing the state today while another cold
front is pressing in from the north, delivering the coldest air of
the season tonight and Thursday. Highs today will actually be
higher in the south and east, while lower in the northwest. Some
snow showers will develop today over the western and northern
mountains, as well as the northeast highlands tonight. Snow
amounts though will be light. Bone chilling, thumb numbing cold
for tonight into Thursday with highs up to 25 degrees below normal
in the east. A modest east canyon wind will spill into the Rio
Grande Valley tonight creating wind chills not far from zero.

Dry and not nearly as chilly Friday. Another short wave trough
will pass by this weekend. Any snow will be confined to the
northern mountains. Mild temperatures Saturday with turn colder
again Sunday. Dry through the first half of next week. Another
weak disturbance aloft will pass by early in the week with a
modest back door cold front bringing chilly air in the east.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High clouds continue to stream across the southern half of the
state this morning, while areas of low clouds were slowly
developing across north and northwestern sections of the state.
Winds are already gusting strongly across the high terrain and
adjacent highlands. These winds will persist through approximately
mid afternoon before decreasing as the 700 mb jet diminishes.

The main story today will be the arrival a strong cold front. This
second cold front of the week will usher in modified arctic air,
causing temperatures to take an even more drastic downward tumble.
Highs across the northern tier of the state will struggle to reach
the freezing mark. Much lower dewpoints will arrive behind the
front, which will allow temperatures to fall into the single digits
and teens tonight across much of the area. These will be the coldest
temps of the season thus far.  Little mixing on Thursday will allow
temps to stay quite cold, especially along and east of the central
mountain chain where temps will again struggle to reach the freezing
mark.

West to northwest flow will set up Friday through the middle part of
next week. There will be some perturbations in the flow which will
occasionally trend temps up or downward, and will also trend up and
down wind speeds. In detail: Temperatures will trend upward Friday,
most significantly so across the east thanks to downslope flow and a
developing surface lee side trough. A few westerly breezes are
expected across the eastern plains as well. Temps will continue to
warm on Saturday with breezy to windy conditions plaguing areas
along and east of the central mountain chain. The GFS continues to
show a bit stronger wave passing to the north of the state Saturday
and Saturday evening. In addition to increasing winds Saturday, this
wave will also cool temps for Sunday, again most significantly so
across the east thanks to the back door segment of an associated
cold front. Temperatures will trend back upward Monday and Tuesday,
though windy conditions are expected both days over the Sangre de
Cristo Mtns.

Ventilation will generally remain in the good to very good category
today with few exceptions. However, poor ventilation is expected on
Thurs and Fri for most areas. Ventilation will improve Saturday,
mainly along and east of the central mountain chain where wind
speeds are expected to increase. However, mainly poor vent rates
will return on Sunday.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ510-512>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

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