Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 301006
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE REGION DRIFTING EASTWARD WILL
VERY SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WAS LOW CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL FOG IN AREAS THAT HAVE PICKED UP
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH AND SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITHIN THE PECOS VALLEY
MAY FAVOR SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS FOR KLVS TO KTCC AND KROW. GREATEST
CONFIDENCE WAS AT KLVS WHERE A COUPLE OBS ARE ALREADY CLOSE. KABQ
MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG BUT FOR NOW THINKING GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE
TO SEE A BKN LAYER HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS BTWN 09Z AND 15Z.
TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER WITH WEST TO NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. THE EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGED WEST THRU THE REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE GAP WINDS IN STORE FOR KABQ.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  64  90  63 /  20  20  20  30
DULCE...........................  84  52  82  52 /  40  40  40  50
CUBA............................  85  56  80  55 /  30  50  70  70
GALLUP..........................  88  59  87  58 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  83  55  82  55 /  20  30  50  40
GRANTS..........................  87  56  84  55 /  20  40  60  40
QUEMADO.........................  85  58  83  58 /  20  30  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  91  59  89  59 /  20  20  60  50
CHAMA...........................  79  48  75  47 /  60  60  70  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  58  75  56 /  40  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  79  54  72  53 /  40  70  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  73  52 /  60  70  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  68  44  64  44 /  70  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  44  68  45 /  70  70  60  70
TAOS............................  79  52  74  52 /  30  60  50  60
MORA............................  76  51  70  51 /  60  70  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  85  60  80  59 /  20  50  40  60
SANTA FE........................  82  59  75  57 /  30  60  50  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  59  79  58 /  20  50  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  82  63 /  20  40  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  90  66  84  66 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  64  86  64 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  91  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  63  87  64 /  20  40  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  92  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  90  67 /  20  30  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  87  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  57  75  57 /  30  60  60  70
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  55  74  56 /  30  60  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  58  78  60 /  20  60  70  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  63  81  63 /  20  30  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  83  54  75  54 /  40  50  70  60
CAPULIN.........................  70  54  70  56 /  70  60  30  60
RATON...........................  74  56  72  57 /  70  60  40  60
SPRINGER........................  77  57  73  58 /  60  60  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  79  54  71  54 /  70  60  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  76  57  76  60 /  40  40  20  20
ROY.............................  76  56  73  59 /  60  60  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  85  63  79  65 /  30  40  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  86  62  79  63 /  30  40  20  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  63  81  63 /  30  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  86  60  78  61 /  30  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  89  62  79  62 /  30  40  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  64  80  64 /  20  30  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  94  67  84  67 /  20  30  30  50
PICACHO.........................  89  62  78  63 /  30  50  40  50
ELK.............................  83  59  75  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

41




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