Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
598 FXUS65 KABQ 080528 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1128 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 One more day of brisk to gusty west winds, lighter than today, with critical fire weather conditions across eastern areas Wednesday. A pattern change evolves Wednesday night into Thursday as a cutoff low develops over the Great Basin pulling a cold front through eastern areas and through the gaps of the central mountain chain into the the Albuquerque Metro bringing an gusty east wind Thursday morning. A cooler and wetter pattern is expected over north central and northeast NM beginning Thursday afternoon slowly expanding south and east through Saturday. The east canyon wind across the Albuquerque Metro looks will be reinforced Thursday evening into Friday morning with high wind gusts possible before tapering off midday Friday. The unsettled pattern continues into early next week with chances for showers and storms each afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 A broad trough continues to hang out over the High Plains, keeping windy conditions around across central and northern NM today. A jet streak along the base of the trough will slide southward this afternoon and evening, seeing the core of strongest winds shift from southern CO into northern/central NM. 700 mb winds are not particularly impressive for a High Wind event (~40kts), but perfectly clear skies are promoting deep mixing up to nearly 14kft which is helping to bring strong gusts down to the surface. Winds will diminish tonight, but there is some uncertainty if the atmosphere will decouple enough for drainage winds to develop in river valleys. The dry airmass and clear skies suggest plummeting lows, but opted not to issue a Freeze Warning for the San Juan River Valley in the Northwest Plateau because the surface pressure gradient should be just strong enough for a northwest breeze to hang on through the night. Tomorrow won`t be quite as windy as today or yesterday, but still expecting the typical gusty winds along the east slopes of the central mtn chain and its adjacent highlands. Winds turn more northerly late in the day as a backdoor front enters from the northeast. Initially, the airmass will be dry, but moisture eventually funnels into eastern NM Wednesday night as winds turn more easterly. A freeze is possible again along the San Juan river valley Thursday morning with greater confidence than tonight because conditions are better for valley inversion development. Freeze headlines may be needed in future packages. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 A pattern change will be underway Thursday as the leading upper low of the eastern flank of the overall longwave trough opens up and progresses east towards the Great Lakes and the western flank of the longwave trough hangs back and closed off into a cutoff low over the Great Basin near Las Vegas, NV. At the surface, a backdoor front will be through all of eastern NM and surging through the gaps of the central mountain chain to the Continental Divide. This will bring a moderate to strong east canyon wind to the ABQ metro during the Thursday morning commute with the 12Z NAM MOS and GFS MOS guidance indicating sustained winds close to Wind Advisory criteria (27 and 30 kts respectively) at 15Z Thursday. The east wind will ease up a bit during the afternoon hours. The moisture behind this backdoor front is not impressive by any means with PWATS around 0.35 to 0.5 inches. However, this moisture and upslope flow along with CVA and lift ahead of the upper low and daytime heating will result in the development of scattered showers and storms over the northern mountains and adjacent highlands near the Colorado border Thursday afternoon slowly tapering off Friday morning with the loss of daytime heating. This convection over north central and northeast NM along with the upper low wandering around the UT/NV/AZ region will help to reinforce the east canyon wind across the ABQ metro Thursday evening into Friday morning. The 12Z guidance from the GFS MOS and NAM MOS guidance show sustained winds increasing to near Wind Advisory criteria at 00Z Friday increasing to around 33 to 34 kts (just under High Wind Warning criteria) at 06Z Friday. With the upper level pattern supporting a strong east canyon wind event, wind highlights will likely be necessary Thursday evening through Friday morning. The east wind should gradually relax come midday Friday. A Rex Block will be in place on Friday with an upper level high over the Pacific NW and the upper low continuing to meander over southern NV, southwest UT, and northwest AZ. This will put the favored coverage of afternoon and evening shower/storm chances across northwest and north central NM shifting towards the northeast highlands late in the day. Can`t rule out a stray strong to severe storm, but chances remain low due to limited moisture and instability. On Saturday, the low starts to meander east with the deterministic GFS still more progressive over northern NM. The ECMWF and most ensembles are slower keeping the low over northern AZ and the Four Corners with a weak developing downstream ridge over Texas. Ensembles show winds veering to a southerly to southeasterly direction with PWATs across eastern NM increasing to 0.7 to 0.8 inches. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms across northern, central, and eastern NM Saturday afternoon and evening, with lower chances across southwestern areas. However, morning cloud cover across the eastern plains could limit instability for showers and storms to develop in the afternoon. Ensembles show the upper low gradually filling/opening up and moving towards northeast NM and the southern high plains Sunday. PWATs around 0.4 to 0.6 inches will still allow for some showers and storms to develop mainly favoring north central and northeast NM Sunday afternoon and evening. Ensembles then show another weak upper level trough approaching the desert SW early next week keeping the afternoon and evening shower and storm chances in the forecast. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal late this week, slight warming back up to near normal come Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Westerly winds remain breezy across parts of northern and central NM this hour. LLWS will be a concern for a few terminals where winds have decoupled at the surface, including KABQ and KAEG through 10Z to 12Z Wednesday morning. A dry cold front will bring a northwesterly wind shift to western and central terminals through Wednesday morning. These winds turn back westerly by Wednesday afternoon with breezy to gusty and dry conditions area wide Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Sky conditions remain clear, outside of a sct-bkn mid-level cloud deck across central and eastern NM Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 ..WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER AREAWIDE TODAY AND AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM TOMORROW.. Near-zero dewpoints have allowed RH to drop as low as 4% this afternoon across eastern NM. The same locations with single digit RH are seeing gusts to 50 mph, creating critical to extreme fire weather conditions that will persist through the evening. Winds diminish somewhat tomorrow, but will remain strong enough for critical fire weather conditions to develop across eastern NM. The Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for all zones except the Sangre de Cristo mtns and Sandia/Manzano mtns. Winds were more the limiting factor in the Sandia/Manzano mtns whereas it was the RH in the Sangre de Cristo mtns. A backdoor cold front ushers in a more moist airmass Wednesday night, bringing an end to critical fire weather conditions until at least early next week. However, gusty east gap winds will likely impact areas just east of the central mtn chain, including Albuquerque, Thursday morning and particularly Friday morning. Scattered showers and storms will favor the northern mtns late week into the weekend. Overall precipitation amounts appear light, with potentially up 1" as a multi-day precipitation total over the peaks of the northern mtns. Precipitation coverage and amounts will be lower across the southern and western portions of the forecast area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 34 60 30 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 25 59 23 66 / 0 0 0 20 Cuba............................ 30 58 31 65 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 29 64 26 70 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 34 62 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 30 66 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 67 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 43 72 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 40 68 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 75 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 77 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 25 54 25 60 / 0 0 0 30 Los Alamos...................... 39 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 38 61 37 61 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 56 34 57 / 0 0 0 30 Red River....................... 28 52 25 52 / 0 0 0 50 Angel Fire...................... 25 53 22 52 / 0 0 0 40 Taos............................ 28 61 27 63 / 0 0 0 20 Mora............................ 34 61 32 58 / 0 0 0 30 Espanola........................ 39 68 33 71 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 39 63 39 65 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 37 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 46 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 45 74 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 76 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 44 73 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 43 77 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 43 72 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 43 77 37 76 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 43 73 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 76 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 43 67 43 70 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 44 72 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 48 82 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 63 39 63 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 41 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 39 68 35 68 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 69 31 69 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 37 64 36 63 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 41 69 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 41 71 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 50 77 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 47 70 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 33 63 33 55 / 0 0 0 20 Raton........................... 33 67 34 59 / 0 0 0 20 Springer........................ 36 68 36 60 / 0 0 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 37 66 35 58 / 0 0 0 20 Clayton......................... 39 72 42 62 / 0 0 0 10 Roy............................. 40 70 41 63 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 47 77 47 71 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 44 74 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 45 78 45 71 / 0 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 50 81 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 50 83 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 49 80 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 55 89 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 49 81 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 50 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ104-123- 125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...24