Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 271753 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1153 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WHILE SHRA/TSRA SLOWLY DIMINISH BETWEEN KONM AND KSRR...A NEW CROP
OF SHRA/TSRA ARE ALREADY FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. THESE
TSRA WILL EXPAND THRU THE AFTN ACROSS REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE S OR SW AT 5 TO
10KT...THOUGH EARLY STORMS APPEAR TO BE TRACKING A BIT MORE TO THE
SE THAN EXPECTED. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW KSAF/KABQ BEING
IMPACTED LATE THIS AFTN...THUS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR
THOSE AREAS. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SSW TOWARD THE
SW MTNS LATE TODAY. THUS...SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SW MAY SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
LOWERING VSBYS/CIGS BRIEFLY. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY 06Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MOST RECENT MOISTURE SURGE WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE BACK DOOR
FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE DIVIDE IF NOT A BIT WEST OF IT...EXCEPT
FOR VICINITY OF CATRON COUNTY...BUT THERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
ALREADY PRETTY HIGH. SO AN ACTIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A LITTLE
MONDAY AND A BIT FURTHER ON TUESDAY. MOST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY TO EVEN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL SO A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR TO JUST
EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WEST INTO THE GILA REGION. AFTER TRENDING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK
STORM COVERAGE MAY PICK BACK UP LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AMT OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY STILL HANGING
AROUND THE EAST HALF OF NM AS WELL AS S CENTRAL NM. PRETTY MUCH
NOTHING THOUGH ACROSS THE NW THIRD OR SO...INCLUDING THE ABQ AND
SAF METRO AREAS. MOISTURE HAS AGAIN SURGED WESTWARD TO AND EVEN A
BIT WEST OF THE DIVIDE AS THE SLOWLY DECAYING BACK DOOR FRONT HAS
MADE IT THAT FAR WEST.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD FIRE UP A BIT
EARLIER TODAY THAN ON FRIDAY BETWEEN CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND THE
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY SO TOWARD THE DIVIDE. BUT WITH ONGOING
ACTIVITY CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND EAST AS WELL AS SOCORRO
COUNTY SLOWLY WINDING DOWN THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORN...IT MAY TAKE
THE HEATING AWHILE TO GET SFC BASED STORMS BACK UP TO SPEED THOSE
AREAS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND SW ONCE AGAIN...
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE SLOWER NW THIRD THAN ELSEWHERE. AFTER
LOOKING AT VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING PWAT VALUES...THE EXPECTED
FRONTAL REMNANTS LOCATION AND ANTECEDENT HVY RAINFALL
LOCALES...PONDERED ISSUING ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAINLY FOR
SANDIAS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH TO THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MTNS AND WEST TO THE NORTHERN GILA...BUT
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE AFTER DISCUSSION IN HOUSE AND WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...AS WELL AS CONSIDERATION OF HOW STORMS MODESTLY TO
MODERATELY UNDERPERFORMED IN PREVIOUS WATCH AREA. STILL MAY SEE
SOME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SOME OF THESE STORMS...PERHAPS EVEN
A FEW WET MICROBURSTS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

THE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AND POSS
MON...THOUGH ITS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK
ON MON. RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE AS PWATS REMAIN SEASONALLY HIGH TO A BIT ABOVE THE
NORM. TUE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT TO MODERATE ADDITIONAL DOWNTURN IN
THE ACTION AS DRIER AIR COURSES AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND INTO THE STATE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AT LEAST A FEW MAKING OVER THE LOWLANDS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED AWAY SOME FROM DEPICTING BACK DOOR FRONT INTO
THE NE IN THE WED TO THU PERIOD...CERTAINLY NOT GAINING ALL THAT
MUCH NM REAL ESTATE AT THAT TIME. LATER FRI INTO SAT NOW LOOKS TO
BE THE PREFERRED TIME FRAME AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
COLORADO IN NW FLOW. THIS WILL BE JUST IN TIME FOR 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY SUBTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES TO AN OTHERWISE
HIGHLY PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.  MIN RH
VALUES BROADLY TRENDING UPWARD 5 TO 10 PERCENT TODAY AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY OWING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. SLIGHTLY LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PREDOMINATELY
POOR VENT RATES FOR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  HAINES INDICES
REMAINING VERY LOW/LOW EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE
MODERATE TO HIGH VALUES TO PERSIST IN WHAT WILL BE THE
HOTTEST/RELATIVELY DRIEST PART OF THE AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT DISPLACED WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF NEW MEXICO.  WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ENHANCED PERIODS OF WETTING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE AREA. ONE SUCH FEATURE WAS NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH YET ANOTHER INDICATED LATE TODAY AND PERHAPS A BETTER
DEFINED DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY PM.  EITHER WAY...ABOVE AVERAGE
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FROM
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST AREAS.  STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...OR WEST-SOUTHWEST.

WETTING STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD BY TUESDAY OWING TO MORE
INFLUX OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH AS WELL AS
A SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE CORE OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. BUT A QUICK RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN INDICATED
LATE NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY LATE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES SOUTH.  KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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