Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 250002 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
602 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT OVER
THE NE PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SEWD THROUGH COLORADO WILL DRAG A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE WHILE THE FRONT MOVES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE NE AND EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG
MID-LEVEL LIFT/FORCING WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW TO THE NE PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS INCLUDING KLVS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE IMPACTED PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO TODAY...NAMELY OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS OF THE STATE. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE NEW BATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVE. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL FIRST
ENTER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW WILL BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SPREADS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SET BACK SEVERAL DEGREES
INTO THURSDAY...WITH READINGS STAYING BELOW AVERAGE. A DRY AND
MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN SET TO PREVAIL INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF THE NATION WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO MORE
OF A ZONAL COMPONENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE
BATCH OF STANDING WAVE CLOUDS JUST TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY SHRINK AND DWINDLE INTO
THE EVENING AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE A BIT MORE OVER THE
TOPOGRAPHY. A WEAK FRONT ALSO SAGGED INTO NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING...BUT HAS ALREADY ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT WITH ONLY SUBTLE
IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURE READINGS. ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL INFILTRATE THE STATE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

INTO WEDNESDAY...A PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE A DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OF VORTICITY
ALSO STAYING IN PHASE WITH ITS MOTION BUT DISPLACED INTO THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL STEER A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST NM BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY. SUFFICIENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING APPEARS TO INITIATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF NM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE UPSLOPE COMPONENT
BEING LOW TO NON-EXISTENT ON THE EAST FACES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS. SOME INSTABILITY IS ALSO DEPICTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE LIFTED INDICES ARE -1 TO -3 C...THUS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS OF NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH SHEAR WOULD ALSO EXIST
FOR ANY CELLS TO ORGANIZE AND POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE...BUT THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LOW.

AS THE FRONT PLOWS INTO THE STATE...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
EXIST...PERHAPS FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OR SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF BETTER THAN 30 MPH. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY IN
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE STRONGER BELT OF
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL MIX MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...BUT THE THREAT OF A GAP/CANYON WIND DOES NOT
APPEAR AS INEVITABLE DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEING MORE NORTH-SOUTH RATHER THAN EAST-WEST. SNOW LEVELS
WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE HIGH...BUT WILL LOWER WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES ABOVE 8500 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY BY THE MID
MORNING AS UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT TO ANY GREAT
EXTENT AND FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SET BACK SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES ON
THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND A MORE TRANQUIL PATTERN BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY TRAILING VORTICITY LOBES
OR PERTURBATIONS WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM IN THE WAKE OF
WEDNESDAY`S SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT RATHER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SWELL OVER THE GREATER AMERICAN SOUTHWEST...CHOKING
OUT THE REMNANTS OF THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STEADILY INTO SATURDAY...PLATEAUING SOME
INTO SUNDAY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU TO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...

ONE DISTURBANCE EXITED NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER WILL
APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME TEENS TO
EVEN SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH CONTINUING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LEAD TO ONLY FAIR OR EVEN POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL AS WELL AS THE
MIDDLE RGV.

THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREFORE VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT. SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PLAINS LATE
IN THE DAY...BUT ARE MORE LIKELY FROM THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU TO THE
MIDDLE RGV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MIX OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECAUSE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH
LOW HAINES FORECAST...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS
TIME.

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER MEAGER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN MTS AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THUNDER WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. AN EAST WIND COULD DEVELOP
INTO THE RGV WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT
VERY ENTHUSED. RH RECOVERIES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER MOST LOCALES...WITH GOOD VENT RATES
NORTHEAST HALF AND POOR TO FAIR RATES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER NEW
MEXICO BY FRIDAY. A LEE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DECENT MIXING
HEIGHTS...MAY KEEP VENT RATES FROM CRATERING TOO MUCH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH HAINES ALSO FORECAST FOR THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGH VALUES SPREAD INTO THE RGV
AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
AFTER THURSDAY/S COOL DOWN...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. RH RECOVERIES WORSEN FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM PREDICTED
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT/S NOT FORECAST TO BRING
MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...THEREFORE THE LOW POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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