Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 200535 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1135 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Sfc lee trough and drier w-nwly flow aloft will develop early this
morning, helping to limit areal coverage of mvfr cigs to LCL
overnight. Lower surface dewpoint temperatures will likely keep
BR/FG formation to patchy in higher terrain/mtn valleys.
Strengthening sfc lee trough will result in breezy south and
southwest winds most areas Friday. Winds will gradually diminish
toward sunset.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will favor the northeast third to half
of the state this evening as storms roll off the higher terrain.
Less storm coverage is in store on Friday as drier air moves into
the area. There remains a slight chance of strong to severe storms
across far eastern New Mexico on Saturday afternoon and evening
along and east of the dryline. By Sunday, the dryline should shift
eastward and dry weather looks to be on tap Sunday through the
middle of next week. Temperatures will climb considerably on
Friday, and perhaps a degree or two more on Saturday. Sunday will
be a few degrees cooler across the west and north, but will remain
quite pleasant for late May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough is continuing to exit into the Great Plains and
northwest flow behind the trough combined with residual moisture has
allowed for a few showers and thunderstorms across mainly northern NM
this afternoon. These storms will continue to move toward the southeast
through the evening. Not expecting any great precip amounts
though. Most of the convection should be done by midnight.

On Friday, shortwave ridging in the morning will give way to
southwest flow in the afternoon. Much drier air will arrive with the
southwest flow which will limit convection further. Temperatures
will warm 5 to 15 degrees over todays readings.

The dryline will slosh back into the plains Friday night and the
question will be how far it mixes out Saturday afternoon. Still
suspect it will reside over the far eastern plains by the
afternoon hours which may lead to a isolated strong to severe
storms in the aftn/eve near the TX border. Elsewhere, expect to
see a noticeable increase in wind speeds.

The dryline will again slosh back westward Saturday night, but at
least attm, looks to mix back out Sunday afternoon into Texas. Thus,
Sunday looks dry for the most part as the mid level dry slot pushes
thru and dominates the area. Winds will increase further, and
humidities will dry out, although, temperatures will fall a few
degrees across western and northern areas as a weak trough passes to
the north of the state.

The dry slot continues to look like a semi-permanent feature over
the state Monday through Wednesday as the long wave trough and weak
shortwaves rotating within it stay to the north of the state.
Temperatures do not look to climb significantly through the period,
and may stay just below normal across central and western areas.

Looks like a storm system may cross the state late next week, but
models diverge on the timing and strength.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
What`s left of the storm system which has affected New Mexico the
last few days will be focused over the north and east tonight, with
wetting convection most likely over the northeast and east central
plains. Thereafter, a drying and warming trend remain forecast for
the next couple of days. Afternoon winds will increase while chances
for showers and storms become more limited to the higher terrain of
the north and west on Friday with only hit or miss precipitation.
Vent rates will be mostly excellent Friday.

The west will continue to dry out Saturday while the dryline sloshes
back and forth. The far east will see a chance for thunderstorms and
the west will be precipitation free. The combo of low humidities and
strong winds will be found between the central mountain chain and
the dryline, where critical conditions may be most widespread
Saturday afternoon. However, due to recent wetting rains, not
anticipating a fire weather watch. Vent rates will be excellent
Saturday.

The dryline will be shoved a little farther east Sunday, and gusty
west to southwest winds could produce a swath of critical conditions
from the central mt chain over most of the eastern plains. Highs
will be near to a little below average and it will be dry overall
with the exception of the far east central where a slight chance
for storms may be found.

By Sunday night, overnight rh recoveries start to suffer and
diminish to fair to poor for a large portion of the forecast area
Monday and Tuesday nights. A dry and breezy to windy pattern will
persist into the middle of next week. A storm system may swing
through the state towards the end of next week, but may be much
drier so a cool down in temperatures could be the most significant
impact, along with gusty winds for some locations.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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