Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 300547 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH THE FOLLOWING
EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY PORTIONS
THE MORENO VALLEY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09Z AND 16Z SUN. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA SUN AFTER APPROXIMATELY
18Z SUN...MOST LIKELY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM AND LEAST LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST. ONCE MORE THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF MT
OBSCURATIONS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. TAF SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WILL
BE GUP...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVE HOURS.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...815 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015...
.UPDATE...
STORMS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
WEST. LOWERED POPS AND CLOUD COVER THRU THE OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF POP
UP STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE HOWEVER CHANCES ARE SLIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS...WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL WEST AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PWATS..ALTHOUGH STILL NEAR NORMAL...HAVE TRENDED DOWN A BIT AS
DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. GARDEN-
VARIETY STORMS APPEAR TO BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO SLOWER STORM MOTION
THERE. AT 3 PM MDT...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SANDIAS/MANZANOS
AND NORTH OF THE ABQ METRO MAY PROVIDE COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CITY BETWEEN 330-6 PM.

MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS ORIENTED ALONG/NEAR THE
ARIZONA BORDER BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST. ANOTHER DAY OF GARDEN
VARIETY STORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS FORECAST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AGAIN. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS
TO LINE-UP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY...WHICH COULD BRING
SOME DECENT RAINS TO THE SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE METROS BUT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW INTERACTION. RELATIVELY HIGHER PWATS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...WITH POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
FURTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS. SOME DRYING ACROSS NW AREAS TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NW
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST A BIT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT BEYOND
FRIDAY...WITH MORE DRYING FROM THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS ON A VERY WET SCENARIO DAYS 7-10. LOWER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FROM MID WEEK ON. UNTIL MIDWEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE
NORMAL EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR
WEST-CENTRAL AREAS NEAR THE AZ LINE. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE
BEING LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO MONDAY BEING THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. TUESDAY REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE
BUT DRY AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO NORTHWEST NM...LIMITING STORM
COVERAGE THERE.

GFS AND ECMWF FINALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SEWD INTO
THE PACNW WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH GETS FORCED SOUTHWARD
OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND MORE DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE STATE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NOW LOOKING
LIKE DOWN DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF
HWY 60. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS
REMAINING SOGGY WET AND THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE RELATIVELY DRY.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS TO
RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NM SUNDAY AND
IMPROVING SLIGHTLY MONDAY. VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE INTO
THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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