Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 110946
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EFFECTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER CENTRAL AND EAST THIS
MORNING...THEN A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE ARIZONA BORDER FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM OLD MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EFFECTS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING WITH SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
OVER THE PLAINS. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST AS
THE WESTERLIES RETREAT NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEW
MEXICO...AND MAY IN PART BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT CONVECTION
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY OVER NORTHERN LEA AND
SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.  GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WILL BE FAVORED FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TODAY.

MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS IMPACTS FRIDAY/S
FORECAST HIGHS AND POTENTIALLY LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THERE REMAIN
RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN DEW POINT FORECASTS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY ARE A BIT WARMER FOR HIGHS IN THE RGV
WESTWARD FRIDAY AND HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE INCREASING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR TEMPERATURE WISE...AT LEAST
IN THE EAST.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES INDICATED AS SOON AS SATURDAY BUT
NOT EXPECTING HIGHS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR A MAJORITY OF
LOCALES UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE STATE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. CURRENT VERSION OF
THE GFS HOLDS THE ANTICIPATED TROPICAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST
LIKELY DUE TO A RATHER DEEP TROUGH IT DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
ECMWF COULDN/T BE MORE DIFFERENT...IT ALSO KEEPS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE PACIFIC BUT THERE/S NO UPPER TROUGH IN SIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROAMED PORTIONS OF EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...RESULTING IN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERIES
WILL RANGE FROM FAIR IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS TO GOOD ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A
WEAK LOW OFF BAJA AND THE HIGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTH THUS WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHEAST ZONES.
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS BY MID DAY. WETTING RAIN WILL FAVOR
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. VENTILATION WILL RANGE
FROM GOOD TO VERY GOOD ALL AREAS.

THE NEXT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE IN THE
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE RESULTING GAP WIND EVENT. BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH GAP
WINDS DEVELOPING FROM ALBUQUERQUE TO SANTA. THE FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED GAP WINDS INTO
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WETTING
RAIN INITIALLY FAVORING THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAY...THOUGH EAST WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GAP WINDS PERSIST DURING THE DAY AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VENTILATION DECREASES MOST AREAS...WITH POOR TO FAIR VALUES
OVER AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MUCH COLDER AIR RACES
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH RESULTING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST 15
TO 30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO
THE 30S NORTHERN LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE MORENO VALLEY...BUT AT THIS
POINT LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST OVER NEW MEXICO...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALL ZONES ON SUNDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED DRYING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL.

BY SUNDAY...THE STRENGTHENING TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE IS FORECAST TO
BE WEST OF BAJA. IT LOOKS TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK
SO AT THIS POINT AN ENHANCED MOISTURE SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MAINLY -SHRA/-TSRA WILL REMAIN ACTIVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ONE PERSISTENT AREA ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS BETWEEN LAS VEGAS /KLVS/ AND SANTA ROSA
WILL LIKELY EXPAND OR REDEVELOP TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO
INCLUDE KTCC IN SHALLOW UPSLOPE REGIME. ANOTHER AREA THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF ROSWELL. THIS LATTER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BECOME THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGRESSES
AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST AT KROW ACCORDINGLY. LESS CONFIDENT
ABOUT DIRECT IMPACTS AT KTCC AND WILL INCLUDE VC AS PLACEHOLDER.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
HOWEVER...OVERALL EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 08Z-14Z REMAINS
IN QUESTION GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLVS...KTCC..AND KROW
WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT LVS AND AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ALSO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATEST. OUTSIDE THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  83  52  84  52 /   0   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  79  43  78  45 /   5  10   5  10
CUBA............................  80  49  72  46 /   5  10  20  10
GALLUP..........................  81  44  81  47 /   5   5   5   5
EL MORRO........................  77  43  76  46 /   5  10  20  20
GRANTS..........................  79  48  77  47 /   5  10  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  78  48  78  50 /  10  10  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  86  53  85  55 /  10  20  30  40
CHAMA...........................  74  38  72  42 /   5  10  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  50  71  48 /  10  20  20  10
PECOS...........................  74  49  62  46 /  20  30  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  76  43  69  42 /   5  20  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  66  41  63  40 /  10  30  30  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  38  60  38 /  10  40  30  20
TAOS............................  77  45  70  42 /   5  20  10  10
MORA............................  75  45  60  43 /  20  40  40  20
ESPANOLA........................  82  51  74  47 /  10  20  10  10
SANTA FE........................  78  51  72  47 /  10  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  81  53  74  48 /  10  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  81  59  74  53 /  10  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  83  62  76  55 /  10  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  84  57  77  53 /  10  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  84  58  77  55 /  10  20  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  85  61  78  54 /  10  20  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  83  61  76  54 /  10  20  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  88  63  79  56 /  20  20  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  77  54  66  48 /  10  20  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  79  56  68  50 /  10  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  79  49  63  46 /  20  40  60  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  78  51  61  44 /  30  60  60  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  54  64  48 /  20  40  60  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  57  68  52 /  30  40  70  30
RUIDOSO.........................  75  53  63  50 /  40  60  70  50
CAPULIN.........................  75  45  53  41 /  10  70  40  20
RATON...........................  77  47  59  42 /  10  60  40  10
SPRINGER........................  76  46  58  43 /  10  60  40  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  74  46  58  43 /  30  60  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  77  44  52  42 /  10  70  40  10
ROY.............................  75  47  55  43 /  20  70  50  20
CONCHAS.........................  81  51  58  47 /  20  70  50  20
SANTA ROSA......................  82  53  58  48 /  30  60  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  84  54  60  47 /  20  70  50  20
CLOVIS..........................  81  57  62  48 /  30  70  70  30
PORTALES........................  82  57  64  49 /  30  70  70  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  80  58  64  51 /  30  60  60  30
ROSWELL.........................  82  62  69  53 /  30  50  70  50
PICACHO.........................  79  57  68  50 /  30  60  70  60
ELK.............................  77  56  67  49 /  50  60  70  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











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