Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 271742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist for the most
part through the next 24 hours. MVFR conditions are possible with
the stronger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
but not enough confidence to put in forecasts. Do have tempo TSRA
in most TAFs for a couple of hours this afternoon, with the
exceptions FMN, TCC and ROW where we have VCTS. Another active
day on tap for Sunday.


While an upper level low is still forecast to drop south to near
Las Vegas, Nevada today, drier air aloft ahead of this low and
below average high temperatures will likely limit shower and
thunderstorm intensity today and Sunday. Low level moisture will
move in from the east and southeast on Monday, increasing shower and
storm chances along and east of the central mountain chain. The
moisture will continue to stream in from the east Monday night and
Tuesday, resulting in increased chances for localized heavy
rainfall Tuesday through Thursday.


00z weather prediction model suite not backing the upper level
flow ahead of a weak upper low dropping south through the western
Great Basin as much as previous runs for today and Sunday. The
result is drier air aloft moving up from the southwest instead of
a more moist southerly flow. Additionally, models trending
slightly cooler with afternoon high temperatures both today and
Sunday. The end result will likely be what`s been occurring, below
average crops of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
for late August today and Sunday, albeit with locally heavy
rainers as PWATS remain above three quarters of an inch.

NAM and GFS differ with how a weak upper low over AZ evolves
late Sunday into Monday. GFS keeps the upper level low along the
AZ/NM border which results in a more southerly flow aloft late-day
Sunday into Monday while the NAM weakens/fills the low and lifts
it northeastward into southeast CO. GFS solution would result in
better storm coverage along and east of the central mountain chain
Sunday afternoon/evening. Both models develop a low level
easterly flow on Monday. This ely flow results in an increase in
low level moisture and the development of surface convergence
along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. East to
southeast low level flow continues Monday night and Tuesday. GFS
remains wet Tuesday through Thursday and perhaps into Friday,
primarily east of the continental divide. With the lack of strong
upper level forcing/dynamics, surface convergence along the east
side of the divide along with the east slopes of the central
mountain chain will likely be what drives heavy rainfall Tuesday
thru Thursday. Westerly steering flow will make areas along and
immediately east of the divide and central mountain chain favored
for heavy rainfall next week.

GFS, ECMWF and Canadian in better agreement with one another with
regard to late next week. Drier southwest flow aloft scours out
monsoon moisture at some point next weekend as an unseasonably
deep closed upper low drops into the inland northwest and
northern Great Basin.



Good to excellent humidity recovery this morning will be followed by
a slightly warmer/drier day overall thanks to increasing southwest
flow and drier air moving in from the southwest. That said, we
should see an increase in lightning activity across western New
Mexico later this afternoon/evening relative to yesterday as an
upper low, currently over southern Nevada, moves southeast into
Arizona and helps to destabilize the atmosphere over the region.
Steering flow will take storms off of the higher terrain and into
adjacent eastern highlands and valleys by late day. We`re still
anticipating a slight uptick Sunday compared to Saturday although
daytime temperatures will generally remain below normal.

The most active period with the best wetting potential this forecast
cycle will be Monday through Wednesday, when PWATs will top out above
normal for late August and the upper high will be anchored to the
east although creeping closer to New Mexico each day. Humidity will
trend up during the early week period as daytime temperatures remain
below normal. A warming/drying trend is forecast toward the end of
the week and into next weekend as a potent west coast trough steers
a dry Pacific airmass over the Desert Southwest and Southern






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