Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 231744 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1044 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
THIS AFTERNOON AT AREA TERMINALS...EXCEPT AT KFMN. A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR CIGS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION AT
KFMN AND KGUP AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EAST WINDS AT KABQ WILL DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RESURGE MID MORNING TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE FOCUSED OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY...AND SNOWFALL SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH...AT LEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
THROUGH 18Z SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 1 INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AFTER 18Z...MUCH OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD DIMINISH AND
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONT HAS PUSHED OVER THE CONTDVD THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT BY THE SE
WINDS AND QUICK DROP IN TEMPS OVER GALLUP. BELIEVE TEMPS WEST OF THE
CONTDVD WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TODAY THAT SNOW AROUND GALLUP AND
FARMINGTON SHOULD CHANGE BACK OVER RAIN...OR AT LEAST SEE A MIX...
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. WITH THAT SAID...AS THE UPPER
LOW NEARS NM THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS NW NM...AND SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WILL LIKELY BECOME
ALL SNOW AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS NM ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
ALBUQUERQUE MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIP AS THE EAST
WINDS RETURN FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NM.  AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ADVISORIES EXPIRE ON TIME AT 18Z...AND
THE DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE SOME FRESH ADVISORIES FOR
THE NW/WC NM FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
SAN JUANS...WITH MORE SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE WARNING THROUGH 6PM TUESDAY FOR ZONE 510. THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT
18Z...THOUGH THE JEMEZ MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED DUE TO ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW.

HAVE DROPPED TEMPS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN TRICKY AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A COLD RAIN IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES...BUT COULD
SEE A TURNOVER TO SNOW IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...LIFTED
INDICES FALL BETWEEN 0 AND -2 ON TUESDAY AFTN BENEATH THE LOW
CORE...THUS SOME THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHEAST NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES DOWN THE PLAINS. THE
EC IS QUITE BULLISH AT DROPPING TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR THE NE
FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY...BUT REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE IS AT LEAST IN THE
20S OR LOW 30S. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLD. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE IN
THE ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE NE.

THE EC AND CANADIAN SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THIS IS CORRECT...SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY JUST CONTINUE AND EXPAND WESTWARD TO THE AZ
BORDER.

A STRONGER TROUGH LOOKS TO SLOWLY BECOME ORGANIZED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MAY SET UP FOR
QUITE A WHILE OVER NW NM. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS OF
COURSE...BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK WITH NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BACKING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS NOW MADE IT EAST OF THE DIVIDE
WITH THE WIND AT GALLUP NOW SOUTHEAST WITH RAPIDLY RISING DEWPOINTS
AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. EAST CANYON WINDS CONTINUE TO POUR INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH CONSISTENT GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AT THE
ALBUQUERQUE SUNPORT. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS FALLING OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MOST OF IT IS LIGHT TO MODERATE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY AND ARIZONA TONIGHT. THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
GO FROM MAINLY EAST TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL SNOW COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT
BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE...MOST CONCENTRATED OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND JEMEZ MOUNTAINS. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY OVER THE WEST
AND SOUTH...WHILE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE
EAST WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE  EAST...RESULTING
IN POOR VENTILATION FOR MOST ZONES. IN CONTRAST...GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING ACROSS THE FAR WEST WILL
SUPPORT GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE SNOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA. THE RH
RECOVERIES WILL OBVIOUSLY BE EXCELLENT VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NM TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH AND WEST TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF UPPER LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH NOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...PRODUCING AN EAST CANYON WIND AGAIN INTO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE UNSTABLE TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWERS WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AS WELL AS CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY HIGHER IN THE EAST...BUT
STILL 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...SAME IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL BE MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WITH GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RATES OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES.

SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH MOSTLY EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERIES.

A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PLOW SOUTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...FAVORING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TO THE TX BORDER. HOWEVER...AN WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
FRIDAY COULD DROP SOME SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN ON THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE AGAIN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST. VENT RATES
WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXCEPT MOSTLY
FAIR IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A STORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY AND
DROP SOUTH...BUT WEAKEN AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS NM THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST ONE...KEEPING ITS
STRENGTH FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL PLENTY OF DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE
WEEKEND OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE VALLEYS AND ON THE PLAINS. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-503-504-506-507-511-517-518-521>524-526-532>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>531.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510.

&&

$$

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