Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 111005
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
305 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow continues over the southern Sangre de Cristo and Sandia/Manzano
Mountains this morning. The band of snow showers will continue to
push southeast through the east-central plains before washing out mid
morning. Icy and slippery roadways will be commonplace this morning
focusing along I-25 from Santa Fe to Raton Pass. Clearer skies will
be ushered in behind the storm system this afternoon across western
and central New Mexico, with well below normal temperatures across
eastern New Mexico. A warming trend takes hold to start the coming
work week, with another round of welcomed precipitation due later in
the week as another storm system spins in from the eastern Pacific.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The trough of low pressure has pushed into New Mexico this morning
bringing with it several inches of snow atop the northern mtns. An
accompanying backdoor front across the east has wrapped around the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mtns and has pushed back up the RGV into
the Santa Fe Metro area, allowing for the potential of a flash freeze
setting up icy/slippery roadways. Three to six more inches of snow
are possible atop the higher peaks of the Sangre de Cristo`s this
morning, along with a few tenths atop the Sandia/Manzano`s before
sunrise.

High-Res models show the backdoor front and a band of light snow
pushing southeast across the east-central plains this morning
bringing light snow accumulations along I-40 from the Sandia`s to the
TX border. The trough washes out as it crosses eastern NM.
Precipitation looks to peeter out by mid- morning. Clearer skies will
move in behind the trough this afternoon allowing western NM to warm
up to near average. Highs east of the central mtn chain will be
10-20F below normal today.

Southwest flow sets up over NM Monday as another trough begins to
cutoff over the Great Basin of NV. Low level moisture will remain
across the east from melting snow and southerly flow advecting
subtropical moisture up from old Mexico. This could allow for some
morning low clouds/fog along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mtns Monday morning. SW winds aloft however, 25-35kt at 700mb, may
mix down along the east slops of the Sangre`s keeping the bdry layer
mixed enough to prevent low cloud formation. The deformation zone
east of the cutoff low will set up over the Four Corners bringing the
potential for significant precipitation and snowfall to the far
northwest mtns of NM Monday to Tuesday morning. Highs warm 5-15F
Monday, and well above average Tuesday as the cutoff low moves to the
central CA coastline strengthening SW flow aloft further. This will
also shift precipitation over the Four Corners west into southern UT
and out of NM.

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs several to
15F above normal with the cutoff low spinning offshore of southern
CA. The low looks to begin moving back onshore Thursday spinning up
sub-tropical moisture ahead of it into NM and increasing PoPs over
the southwest mtns, potentially further north. Models continue to
handle this system differently, with the GFS holding onto the low
until it moves over NM, with the ECMWF opening it to a weaker trough
as it moves ashore CA. Either way, it still looks like NM will
receive some decent and much needed wetting precipitation later this
coming week.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A snowband shifting slowly south early this morning has produced a
few inches of snow over the northern mountains. Additional light
accumulations will impact the I-40 corridor from near Santa Rosa
westward to the east slopes of the Sandia/Manzano Mts through mid
morning. Otherwise, much colder air has spilled into the entire area
with much higher humidity. Temperatures will be below normal today
with widespread poor ventilation. Surface winds will turn around to
the southwest thru this afternoon. Overnight recoveries will be very
good to excellent with perhaps some localized freezing fog or
low clouds along the eastern slopes of the central mt chain.

Monday through Wednesday will feature a slow warming trend with
increasing southwest flow as an upper low takes shape over southern
California. Rain showers and high terrain will develop over the Four
Corners region Monday and Monday night. Several inches of snow are
likely for the San Juan and Chuska Mts above 8,000 ft. Southwest
winds will become breezy over the entire area with windy conditions
likely along the high plains of eastern NM. Vent rates will improve
to excellent with min humidity in the 25 to 35% range. Overnight
recoveries will again be very good to excellent and winds will
remain elevated Monday night. Tuesday will be similar to Monday but
min humidity will trend slightly lower with high temps trending 5 to
10 degrees above normal.

Cloud cover will increase over the region Wednesday and winds will
turn more westerly through the day. A surface low taking shape over
southeastern Colorado will generate stronger downslope flow over
northeastern NM and a few hours of marginal critical fire weather
conditions with well above normal temperatures. Critical conditions
will likely be mitigated by thick cloud cover.

Guidance is diverging on the evolution of the upper low as it ejects
across the southwest U.S. late in the week. Confidence has decreased
on the coverage of rain and snow over NM however there will still at
least be higher humidity and increased cloud cover over the area.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Cold upper level trough and associated sfc cold front across central
NM late this evening. Expect mt obscurations in areas of MVFR to IFR
cigs/vsbys in -sn/-shsn over portions of nrn and wrn NM overnight.
Light snow and MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys to shift south and east toward
KSAF and KLVS aft 09Z and persist thru around 14Z. Upper trough and
associated clouds, winds and precip shift east out of NM after
11/18Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  46  28  53  31 /   0  20  40  20
Dulce...........................  42  18  47  25 /   0  20  60  40
Cuba............................  40  22  48  27 /   0  10  20  10
Gallup..........................  48  23  53  25 /   0   5   5   5
El Morro........................  46  21  52  21 /   0   5   5   0
Grants..........................  48  22  56  24 /   0   5   5   0
Quemado.........................  51  29  54  29 /   0   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  59  35  62  35 /   0   5   5   0
Chama...........................  35  16  41  23 /   5  20  60  50
Los Alamos......................  42  25  47  31 /  40   5  10   5
Pecos...........................  39  21  48  28 /  50  10  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  36  15  43  22 /  10  10  20  10
Red River.......................  29  13  37  22 /  10  10  20  10
Angel Fire......................  33  12  42  23 /  20  10  10   5
Taos............................  39  15  47  22 /  10  10  20  10
Mora............................  38  17  47  25 /  30   0   5   5
Espanola........................  46  23  55  29 /  20   0   5   5
Santa Fe........................  43  24  49  29 /  60  10  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  46  22  53  27 /  50   5   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  45  30  56  35 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  48  29  58  36 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  28  60  35 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  28  56  35 /   5   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  51  25  60  32 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  48  28  56  34 /   0   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  55  30  64  36 /   5   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  41  25  50  32 /  10   5   5   0
Tijeras.........................  43  26  52  32 /   5   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  19  55  25 /  10   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  38  21  50  27 /  40   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  43  25  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  47  28  56  34 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  41  26  52  33 /   5   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  37  17  45  24 /   5   0   0   0
Raton...........................  39  14  49  22 /  10   0   0   0
Springer........................  40  17  51  22 /  10   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  38  18  48  25 /  30   5   5   0
Clayton.........................  41  20  47  27 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  39  20  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  44  24  54  31 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  44  23  53  28 /  20   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  44  24  54  31 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  42  22  50  28 /  10   0   0   0
Portales........................  43  22  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  43  22  53  27 /  30   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  43  25  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  40  24  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  39  25  58  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for the
following zones... NMZ510-512>516-518-527>530.

&&

$$

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