Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 171423 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
823 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Convection firing up early this morning btwn the RGV and Cont Divide
will continue spreading eastward and expanding thru 18Z. Near term
model guidance is handling the current scenario well so raised PoPs
within this area. Also raised afternoon PoPs slightly across the
eastern plains where a slight risk of severe storms has been added.
Timing of the stronger activity is the main question as models are
divergent on when and where a broken line of storms develops.



.PREV DISCUSSION...528 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017...
Plume of moisture across ern NM to be shunted out of the state
during the next 24 hrs as upper trof tracks into Great Basin and sw
winds aloft strengthen. Isold showers and tstms before 18Z to become
scattered over much of nrn and central NM thereafter with brief mt
obscurations. Sfc front from vcnty KRTN-KLVS-KTCC at 11Z to continue
moving south and wwd but HRRR and RAP13 disagree how far and how
much the boundary will mix back to the north and east aft 18Z.
Nevertheless, isold strong to severe tstms with large hail and wnd
gusts to 50kt are expected to develop over ne and east central NM aft
20Z. In addition, areas of MVFR to IFR cigs will lag behind the
boundary thru 16Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION...230 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017...
Active weather today, especially in the east, and more specifically
in the northeast. Much drier Monday, then dry and mild Tuesday
through Wednesday. A significant increase in moisture is expected for
the end of the week into next weekend.

Southwest to west flow aloft will dominate through the forecast
period with a long wave trough position across the western states
few short wave troughs will eject out of the main trough, bringing
an increase in winds and precipitation chances. A back door cold
front has pushed into the northeast early this morning and will
help focus showers and thunderstorms there this afternoon and
evening, perhaps including severe weather.


The back door front has arrived in the northeast and it will continue
south and west through mid to late morning before stalling this
afternoon. The front should be from around Clovis to Las Vegas on
north along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains at
noon. This will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms to form
this afternoon into tonight. With the lift provided by the front,
instability from a weak short wave trough, decent veering winds with
height and lots of low level moisture, we may see some severe storms
during the afternoon and evening over the northeast and east central
highlands and plains. Highs will be cooler in much of the east today
and about the same as Saturday in the west. Convection will weaken
and diminish later tonight, although isolated showers and storms may
continue past midnight in the east.

The flow aloft will shift from the southwest to the west Monday,
drying out the atmosphere to a large extent. Any showers or storms
will be confined to the south central mountains and our southeast
zones. Highs will trend upward and be above normal everywhere.

The dry westerly flow will continue Tuesday then begin to back to the
southwest Wednesday. Both days will be dry and warm with breezy to
windy conditions Tuesday, less so on Wednesday. Highs will continue
to be above normal.

The flow will continue to back on Thursday as a deep trough develops
on the great Basin. Moisture will begin to stream north into NM
Thursday and especially Friday, when models have a rather explosive
area of QPF Friday afternoon and night.

A short wave trough will eject out of the main western trough and
cross NM Saturday with more showers and storms for at least central
and eastern areas. Sunday will remain unsettled in the east.

No direct impacts from tropical storm Norma expected.




...Critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday...

Showers and storms will be more active today and tonight as a
disturbance tracks over the region and a surface front dives into
the northeast quarter of the state. Some strong to severe storms
with large hail and wind gusts to 60 mph are possible this afternoon
and evening over northeast and east central New Mexico. High
temperatures today will be cooler as compared to Saturday across the
northeast, but won`t deviate significantly from normal. Minimum
humidities will increase over most of the forecast area, but moreso
over the northeast and east central. Vent rates today will be
excellent overall except the far northeast where fair to poor rates
are forecast.

The disturbance will have exited New Mexico by Tuesday, leaving a
zonal flow pattern in place and suppressing any moisture to our
south. Southwest breezes will develop in the afternoon over portions
of the west and along and east of the central mountain chain. Vent
rates will be excellent except for a splattering of good rates over
the northern mountain peaks. High temperatures will warm a few
degrees and minimum humidities decrease.

Overnight humidity recoveries Monday night may be fair to poor for
areas of northwest and north central New Mexico as ridgetop winds
begin to increase. Winds aloft strengthen more and a surface lee
trough deepen Tuesday, leading to a dry and windier day with
excellent vent rates.  Highs will be 5-10 degrees above average over
the northeast and east central where minimum humidities fall below
15 percent. Consequently a large area of critical conditions
develops Tuesday afternoon over the plains, but not considering a
fire weather watch at this time, due to potential for rain today and
tonight. A second area of critical conditions is possible Tuesday
afternoon for the west central but forecast highs will be closer to

The dry zonal pattern continues Wednesday but with less wind.
Temperatures inch downward as humidities increase slightly. Moisture
may return by Thursday or Friday as a strong trough digs into the
Great Basin and central Rockies. The ECMWF and GFS seem to have the
same idea, but the GFS is faster. In any case, the latter part of
this week still appears unsettled with potential for precipitation
and cooler weather ushering in the fall season.




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