Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 171134 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
534 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

The back door front that has invaded northeastern New Mexico and the
outflow from storms in west Texas have both ushered in low level
moisture to the eastern plains of New Mexico. This has spread low
clouds and some mist/fog over portions of eastern New Mexico,
with isolated pockets of IFR/LIFR conditions working as far west as
as KCQC. The low clouds should erode away some into the late morning
and early afternoon, but sufficient moisture could linger for a
stray shower or thunderstorm to develop in the far eastern tier of
the state late this afternoon. Hail, gusty downburst winds, and a
brief downpour would accompany any storm.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A nice beginning to the work week is in store today with above
average temperatures and light winds. Winds are forecast to increase
Tuesday, especially east of the central mountain chain. As a weak and
dry cold front move in from the northwest Wednesday, a slight cool
down and breezy to windy conditions are forecast for central and
western New Mexico. A backdoor cold front is expected to move into
eastern New Mexico Wednesday night, pushing westward into the Rio
Grande Valley Thursday. Increasing low level moisture behind this
front is forecast to result in chances for showers and thunderstorms
over the northern mountains Thursday afternoon and across the
northeast plains Thursday night. Another mainly dry Pacific cold
front will result in cooler weather Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dryline is advancing westward early this morning, moving as far west
as Moriarty. Upslope stratus clouds are developing behind the push
and are now encompassing the northeast quarter of the state. Light
east winds will develop into the mid RGV this morning. NAM12 hinting
at some upslope stratus along the east slopes of the Sandias and
Manzanos for several hours either side of sunrise this morning.
Otherwise, a nice day is in store with above average temps and light
winds, that is after the low stratus dissipate across the east during
the late morning.

Winds increase somewhat Tuesday, ahead of a weak upper level trough
moving ewd through the southern Great Basin. Tuesday still looking
like the warmest day of the week with high temperatures ranging from
10 to 20 degrees above average for mid April. The associated dry and
weak cold front is forecast to move through western and central
NM Wednesday, cooling temps a few degrees. Main impact from this
weak front will be increased northwest winds Wednesday afternoon,
especially along and just east of the central mountain chain. The
upper trough sliding east through the southern GB strengthens
somewhat as it moves east of the central Rockies late-day Wednesday,
resulting in a backdoor cold front moving south into eastern NM
Wednesday night. This front pushes wwd into the RGV Thursday. Gulf
moisture will increase behind this feature Thursday and combine with
a trailing upper level trough to bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the northern mountains Thursday afternoon and
across the northeast quarter of the state Thursday night. GFS model
wants to deepen this trough into a closed low over CO Friday while
the ECMWF is slightly farther northeast and more progressive. GFS breaks
out convection over the far northern Sangres and northeast highlands
Friday afternoon while the ECWMF keeps precip mainly north of the
state.

As an upper level ridge builds over the intermountain west Saturday,
dry northwest flow aloft develops over NM. Models agree that the
ridge moves overhead Sunday. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models agree
that a relatively deep upper level trough could be in store for early
next week.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
In the near term, the weather pattern will be dominated by a
relatively light westerly flow aloft while moisture in the lower
levels of the atmosphere sloshes back and forth across the eastern
half of NM. After yesterday`s back door frontal intrusion into
northeastern NM and convective outflows from west TX, the low level
moisture is currently making a run west toward the central mountain
chain. This moisture progression should stall around or shortly
after daybreak with higher dewpoints encompassing much of the
eastern half of the state through late morning. By noon the moisture
will begin to mix back eastward, establishing the dryline over the
eastern third of the state, separating higher moisture in the
eastern tier with drier conditions on the west side. The excellent
RH recoveries gained from the moisture invasion this morning will
lead to low clouds that could be stubborn to burn off in the eastern
zones. This will pose a tricky forecast going into the afternoon as
it could stunt the warm-up and inhibit storm development. However, a
stray thunderstorm is not out of the question in the far eastern
tier of NM late today. While some central zones will observe a spike
up in RH this morning, these zones should quickly dry by the
afternoon, down to 10 to 15 percent RH and perhaps even lower. By
late afternoon today, all of the forecast area is projected to
exceed seasonal high temperatures for mid April.

Low level moisture will hold its ground overnight with excellent RH
recoveries in the eastern third of the state tonight. West of the
dryline, the RH recoveries will be poor to fair. During the day
Tuesday, a surface cyclone should orient itself over northeastern
NM/southeastern CO, allowing the dryline to shift east some. This
will dry dewpoints out and consequently RH will fall to less than 15
percent across all of the plains and most remaining zones of the
forecast area Tuesday afternoon as above normal temperatures
persist. Light to moderate breezes will prevail, and the deep and
high mixing heights will yield excellent smoke ventilation rates.

Into Tuesday night and Wednesday, a short wave trough will move off
of the Pacific and toward the central Rockies. The westerlies aloft
will consequently strengthen with higher gusts impacting the ridges
and peaks of NM first. The stronger winds will then spread into
other zones through the day Wednesday with highest speeds
concentrated over the Sangre de Cristos and the central
mountains/highlands. Precipitation will be a no-show for NM with the
passage of this system and only a slight cooling of temperatures is
forecast. This will keep readings above normal with low RH, and this
will be another link in the chain of critical elements shaping up
for Wednesday afternoon, interlocked with the aforementioned
stronger winds and steeper temperature lapse rates (high Haines
indices).

The progressive westerly flow will then shove another Pacific
disturbance toward the Rockies, one that will be more potent than
its predecessor, but once again more of a wind-producer rather than
precipitation. Breezy to windy conditions could yield a couple to a
few hours of critical conditions in the western highlands Thursday,
but a more widespread and stronger wind event could produce more
coverage of critical fire weather on Friday as the next disturbance
passes north of NM.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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