Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 190518 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1118 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
-Shra lingering longer than forecast guidance along the central
mt chain west to the Cont Dvd. Activity is impacting KABQ and
KAEG w/ gusty outflow winds, brief rain, and thunder and should
taper off by 08Z. Another round of -shra/tsra w/ gusty outflow
winds and lcl heavy rain will occur again Tuesday aft 21Z mainly
along and west of the Cont Dvd. Greatest confidence for several
hours of -tsra is at KGUP btwn 22Z and 02Z. Latest guidance also
showing better coverage of activity drifting off the central mt
chain toward KSAF and KABQ btwn 23Z and 03Z. Storm motions will
be N/NW near 10 kt.
.PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016...
As upper level high pressure remains just to the east of New
Mexico tonight through Wednesday, monsoon moisture will continue
to seep up from the south. The upper high will move begin to
shift back west on Thursday and be overhead Friday. This westward
shift will limit shower and thunderstorm coverage to isolated both
Thursday and Friday. A backdoor cold front is forecast to move
into northeast New Mexico Saturday, bringing with it an increase
in low level moisture and providing a trigger for scattered showers
and storms through the weekend.
Upper high centered over the southern plains this afternoon with
south to sely winds aloft over NM. Crop of thunderstorms drifting
mainly north around 20 mph. A very similar scenario is forecast
Tuesday as the upper high moves little. Models agree that the
upper high will inch wwd toward NM Wednesday. Favored area for
storms shifts to the western third or so of the state Wednesday
afternoon and evening.
The upper high continues to shift west Thursday. The flow aloft
around the high shifts the favored area for convection to the
northwest third. Upper high center moves overhead Friday,
limiting thunderstorm coverage to isolated over the mountains.
The high center shifts westward enough Friday night to allow a
backdoor front to drop into northeast NM Saturday. The front acts
to not only bring in Gulf moisture from the northeast in but
provides a trigger for storms from the Sangre de Cristos east to
the northeast highlands and plains Saturday afternoon and to
points south and west during the evening.
Differences between the GFS and ECMWF with regard to the upper high
position show up markedly on Sunday. The GFS keeps the upper high
center over NM while the more consistent run to run ECMWF
continues to shift the high center wwd to near Las Vegas, NV.
Moisture associated with the backdoor front makes both scenarios
relatively active Sunday afternoon and evening. 12z operational GFS
now tries to bring in an upper level trough into the western
CONUS, keeping the upper high from shifting west of NM. ECMWF has
nothing of the sort and the majority of the GFSensembles members
agree that the upper high center remains west of NM.
No significant changes made to the gridded forecast. Persistent
weather pattern should continue most of the week. Monsoonal moisture
plume will remain over the western half through Thursday as the
upper high resides over the southern Plains. The plume contains near
to a little above normal water vapor values. The wetting rain
footprint will be at moderate levels with a periphery of drier
activity containing some lightning strikes. Humidity values will
trend higher...both day and nighttime. Peak values, based on a 24 hr
avg, appears to be Tue and Wed. Based on the upper and surface
weather pattern...breeziness is expected each afternoon across the
eastern Plains. There is where some brief and localized alignment of
teen humidity and gustier wind could occur. Stronger wind gusts
associated with downdrafts/outflows are expected through the
week...especially favoring the southern and eastern half based on
the mid level dry intrusion location. High temps will be near to a
little above normal across the west and a few to several degrees
above normal across the east.
Models remain consistent with migrating the upper high back to the
west Friday through early the following week. Moisture trapped
within the upper high will recycle out in the form of isolated to
scattered storms. A back door cold front is expected to renergize
moisture within the high center depending on how far west it gets
during the weekend period. Steering flow for the storms would be
light and variable leading to additional wetting possibilities. The
migration of the high will allow eastern areas a better chance at
some precipitation. Either way...RH values aren`t expected to
drop back to very dry levels like was observed a week ago.
Strongest wind during this period would be associated with