Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 270934 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE GREATEST DEVIATION FROM AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY EAST OF THE PECOS VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
THEN WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE SUNDAY
BUT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LESS OF A LULL IN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY THAN EXPECTED...AND DON/T
REALLY SEE A TREND TOWARD LESS ACTIVITY TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO WESTERN NM. HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED AGAIN AND SPC
OUTLOOK PAINTED THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ALONG THE FAR EASTERN NM BORDER. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...AND LEVEL OFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MORE ACTIVE
IN THE PLAINS...AND OUTLOOK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A
BIT LARGER IN AREAL COVERAGE...STRETCHING MAINLY FROM THE PECOS
VALLEY TO THE EASTERN NM/TX BORDER.

THE NORTHEAST QUARTER IS FEATURED ON FRIDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AS THE FRONT STARTS TO DROP INTO THE REGION...AND THEN
PLUNGES SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. AN EAST WIND INTO THE
RGV IS SHOWING UP IN THE GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN
ON SATURDAY...AND CONSEQUENTLY TWEAKED POPS UPWARD.

SUNDAY LOOKS LESS ACTIVE AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HEATING PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS ATTEMPTING TO BE
ALL IT CAN BE BY DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE FORECAST TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO DEVELOP A MOISTURE TAP AS WELL...BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS..AND
HOLDS TO STORM CENTER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TODAY...RESULTING IN A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NE CORNER OF THE
STATE.  WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER...COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THOUGH
WINDS MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES...THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL
CRITERIA.  STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAYS READINGS...AND WINDING UP GENERALLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
NORMAL. THIS WILL FEEL WARM COMPARED TO OUR SUB-AVERAGE TEMPS AS OF
LATE.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY...AND HUMIDITIES MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW
HOURS. MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE QUITE THE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE
EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN A STRONGER PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT...AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE BEHIND IT...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY
SAT MORNING AND MAKE IT AT LEAST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...IF NOT
FURTHER...BY MID DAY. THIS WILL MEAN AN ACTIVE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EAST...AND AN ACTIVE SATURDAY...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY IF
A SUBTLE WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AS WELL. CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES
ACROSS THE WEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ON SATURDAY.

BY LATE SATURDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER
NM...TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. THIS WILL MEAN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
DECREASE SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
VENT RATES SHOULD REBOUND SOME ON SUNDAY AND BE GOOD OR BETTER AGAIN
BY MONDAY. ALSO LOOK FOR HIGH HAINES WED-FRI ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
-SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF SLOWLY THROUGH 08Z. A VERY
BRIEF EXCURSION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY -SHRA HOWEVER GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY THIN AND GIVE WAY TO MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
SUNRISE. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN S/SW WINDS OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION...ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY -SHRA
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NM. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE QUICKLY N/NE AND HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ERRATIC
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  79  47  81  48 /  10  10  10   5
DULCE...........................  74  39  77  39 /  10  20  10  10
CUBA............................  75  43  77  43 /  10  10  20  10
GALLUP..........................  77  38  80  40 /  10   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  74  37  75  40 /  10   5  10   5
GRANTS..........................  78  39  80  40 /  10  10  10   5
QUEMADO.........................  78  42  78  42 /  10   5   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  82  45  83  46 /   5   0   5   5
CHAMA...........................  67  37  72  35 /  20  40  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  73  50  77  46 /  20  20  20  30
PECOS...........................  74  44  77  45 /  20  20  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  71  38  75  39 /  30  20  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  64  37  66  38 /  40  20  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  67  36  70  37 /  50  30  40  40
TAOS............................  73  39  76  39 /  20  10  20  20
MORA............................  71  42  75  42 /  30  20  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  79  44  81  45 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA FE........................  75  46  78  47 /  10  20  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  78  47  80  47 /  10  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  79  54  81  54 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  82  57  83  56 /   5  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  83  51  85  55 /   5  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  82  51  85  52 /  10  10  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  83  53  86  54 /   5  10   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  82  53  84  51 /  10  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  85  53  87  54 /   5  10   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  77  51  78  51 /  10  10  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  78  52  80  51 /  10  10  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  47  82  47 /  10  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  77  48  79  48 /  10  20  30  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  79  51  82  50 /  10  20  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  82  52  83  53 /   5  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  79  50  75  53 /  10  20  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  74  48  77  48 /  30  20  30  40
RATON...........................  79  46  82  45 /  40  20  30  40
SPRINGER........................  77  45  81  45 /  30  20  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  76  44  79  45 /  20  20  30  30
CLAYTON.........................  83  56  80  53 /  20  20  30  40
ROY.............................  81  53  78  50 /  20  20  30  40
CONCHAS.........................  85  53  83  55 /  10  20  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  86  56  84  52 /  10  20  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  88  60  85  57 /  10  20  40  50
CLOVIS..........................  86  59  82  56 /  10  40  50  50
PORTALES........................  88  60  83  57 /  10  40  50  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  87  59  84  56 /  10  20  40  50
ROSWELL.........................  90  61  87  58 /  10  30  40  40
PICACHO.........................  86  54  85  53 /  10  20  30  30
ELK.............................  82  52  80  54 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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