Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 051127 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KGUP AND KFMN TERMINALS.
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND ERRATIC WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST TO NEAR 60 MPH.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS...IF
NOT THE WARMEST...OF 2016 FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO TREND DOWNWARD ACROSS THE WEST ON FRIDAY WHILE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COMMON IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DOT WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRIDAY WILL BRING
A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WINDS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY WILL FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS
OF THE STATE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. COOLER AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FAVORING THE NORTH...AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. H5 RIDGE AXIS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE NM/TX LINE
BY 12Z FRI. MAIN CONCERN LATER TODAY WILL BE HIGH BASED
-SHRA/-TSRA /VIRGA BOMB/ ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION WESTWARD WHERE A
PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE PRESENCE OF
SUBTLE AIR MASS MOISTENING WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

FORECAST /OOZ FRI/ SOUNDING AT KGUP REVEALED CLASSIC INVERTED-V
PROFILE. GFS- DERIVED DOWNDRAFT CAPE /DCAPE/ VALUES OF 900-1100
J/KG FROM VICINITY OF GRANTS INTO NORTHERN CATRON COUNTY SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL HERE...AND
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF DRY TS IN GRIDS. NAM IS ONCE AGAIN A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC DP TEMPS. EASTWARD EXTENT OF HIGH-
BASED GUSTY CONVECTION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RIDGE AXIS. BEST POP TONIGHT
AFTER EVENING CONVECTION TRENDS DOWNWARD OVER NW HIGH TERRAIN.

GOING INTO FRIDAY... SIGNIFICANT/DEEPENING DRY SLOT COINCIDENT
WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
AREA. 700MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25C FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASED
WINDINESS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE ADVISORY SPEEDS
POSSIBLE TO INCLUDE KGUP. THIS TRANSITION ON FRIDAY WILL OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OF A MASSIVE PACIFIC LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND
OVER SOCAL. WILL WATCH FOR POSSIBLE DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
EASTERN NM BUT SURFACE DP/S LOOK QUITE MEAGER PER THE GFS AND EVEN
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
NEAR THE NM/TX LINE.

MAIN LOW CENTER TO LIFT NEWD FRI NIGHT...WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND
FURTHER ELONGATES THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FROM NE TO SW. LOOKS LIKE OUR
BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIP WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
COLD POOL DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY AND THE SECONDARY LOW OPENS UP
AND SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD. NWLY FLOW ALOFT MON TO GIVE WAY TO
A BROADLY CYCLONIC REGIME TUE/WED FOR BREEZY/WINDY PATTERN WITH
LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.  KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR THIS
YEAR FORECAST ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
TRANSITIONS EAST OVER THE STATE. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS. HOWEVER...THE WETTING FOOTPRINT IS LOOKING EVEN
SMALLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DRY LIGHTNING WITH STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS IS NOW THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO. THIS COULD BECOME
PROBLEMATIC IF ANY LIGHTNING STARTS ARE ABLE TO HOLD OVER GOING
INTO FRIDAY WHEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
WITH HAINES VALUES OF 6. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ZONE 109 DUE TO LONGER DURATION AND
BETTER COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. THE DRYLINE ISN`T LOOKING
TOO SHARP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST...WITH RELATIVELY LOW
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ON THE "WET" SIDE. ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT GENERATE LATE FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
LIKELY NOT BE WETTING. SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO A DEEP LEE
SIDE TROUGH...DOWNSLOPE WINDS...HAINES VALUES OF 5-6 AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR SATURDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SHUT- DOWN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY... WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND HAS CHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS...WITH A DOUBLE-LOW CONSENSUS
NOW. THE FIRST LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO UT/CO SATURDAY WHILE THE
SECOND LOW APPROACHES FROM OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND LOW
WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GOING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AND MAY BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN DRY AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY.  11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ106-107-109.

&&

$$

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