Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 241747 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016

Gradual development and lowering of VFR cigs forecast, with showers
and perhaps a few storms this evening and overnight across
western/northern New Mexico ahead of an upper level disturbance
approaching from the Desert Southwest.  MVFR conditions possible at
KFMN and KGUP with rain overnight, but forecast confidence too low
to include in TAFs. Mountain obscurations forecast overnight into
Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist with increasing
winds Tuesday.



Overall a quiet and mostly dry forecast through the next week. Our
only opportunity for some rain will be late today into Tuesday.

Ridge of high pressure has shifted just east of NM as a weak short
wave trough ejects east out of a potent storm off the Pacific
Northwest. This trough will lift northeast and only provide rain
chances across the northwest third or so of the forecast area.
High pressure will rebuild over NM Wednesday and hang around
through next weekend. A couple of upper level disturbances will
shift the high to the east early next week but provide little
chance for any rain.


Impressive storm off the Pacific northwest early this morning. A
weak trough will eject east from the base of the main trough and
cross NM later tonight into Tuesday. There will be enough moisture
and instability for showers and some thunderstorms from late
today through Tuesday. Unfortunately, this only applies to the
western and northern mountains, and to a lesser extent, the San
Juan and Rio Grande Valley. The most widespread showers will be
tonight, with coverage and chances decreasing throughout the day
Tuesday. Highs will generally decrease today and Tuesday, but
will still be above normal. A back door cold front will drop south
across the east plains Tuesday night with little fanfare.

The high pressure ridge will pop right back up over NM Wednesday
and stubbornly remain in our vicinity through the rest of the
week. High temperatures will warm again and be well above normal.
Winds will be light except for occasional moderate breezes across
the east at times.

The high pressure ridge will shift a little east and get pushed
south over the weekend as a trough moves onto the west coast. But
the ridge looks to be strong enough to force the trough northeast
with its moisture missing us. The models diverge at this point
with the GFS bringing another trough inland early next week and
provides a glimmer of hope for showers near the CO/NM border next
Tuesday. The ECMWF has no such trough heading our way, as it holds
the dome of high pressure nearby, with no chance for any rain.



A ridge of high pressure will break down today, then a shortwave
trough will cross the Four Corners tonight, before passing eastward
over the CO/NM border on Tuesday.  There will be a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms mainly over the west central and northwest
highlands today, then a chance along and west of the central
mountain chain tonight. The northern mountains will be favored for
some lingering rain showers on Tuesday.  There could be an inch or
two of snow accumulation high in the mountains near the CO border as
the system passes...mainly tonight. Any wetting precipitation looks
to favor the area along and northwest of a line from Gallup to
Chama, where some spots could receive close to a quarter inch of
rain. Spottier and lighter precipitation accumulation is expected
elsewhere, mainly west of the Rio Grande.

Pockets of poor ventilation are expected near NM`s eastern border
today, in the wake of Sunday`s back door cold front. A weak Pacific
cold front crossing from the west on Tuesday will drop high
temperatures a few to 8 degrees below today`s readings, but highs
will remain around 6 to 16 degrees above normal. Ventilation should
be very good or better most places on Tuesday as the upper low
passes to the north, and surface winds will be gusty along and east
of the north central and central mountains.

In the wake of the upper trough, a strong ridge of high pressure
will build over NM Wednesday through the weekend.  This will create
areas of poor ventilation each day with the most widespread poor
ventilation Wednesday, Friday and Saturday. A lee trough will cause
winds will become gusty again on the eastern plains again Friday.
Then a gusty back door cool front will penetrate eastern and
possibly central areas Friday night into Saturday.





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