Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 241752
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NRN COLORADO LATE THIS
MORNING. SHORT- WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FEATURE
WILL SWING THROUGH NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT WEST AND SOUTHWEST SFC WIND GUSTS TO
35KT EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
MOVES LITTLE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER 25/03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER
COLORADO TODAY WITH A PAIR OF ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT OF
LATE MAY AVERAGES BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES. INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL AGAIN REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNABLE TO RISE MUCH OVER TODAY`S READINGS. BY
TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET PERIOD WILL
THEN SHAPE UP FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW IS CHURNING INTO COLORADO WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING SE UT AND POISED TO ENTER NM TODAY. A MORE DISTINCT
FEATURE...A CLOSED SECONDARY LOW IN CA WILL ALSO MOVE IN PHASE
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NM BY TONIGHT. DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4
C WILL OVERLAY A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STEEPEST
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES EXPECTED NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS ALONG
WITH SOME MEAGER REMNANT MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT DYNAMICS WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD YIELD A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWS SOME INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP/DEWPOINT PROFILES...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE WEAKER SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. HAVE KEPT ELEVATED POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SUSPECT SOME...BUT NOT
FULL...STABILIZATION AND DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE THEREAFTER AS DYNAMICS ALOFT EXIT WITH
DEPARTING UPPER FEATURES.

MONDAY IS A NEW DAY...BUT ULTIMATELY THE FORECAST MIMICS THAT
BROKEN RECORD PLAYER WITH THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE...SHOWERS
AND STORMS REDEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND FAVORING THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WHILE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST. THE CULPRIT FOR MONDAY`S PRECIPITATION WILL
BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS
ALONG WITH UNSTABLE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. SOME BREEZY
WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
THIS MONDAY SHORT WAVE.

A QUASI BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SCRIPTED FOR TUESDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND A SUBTLE RIDGING OVER NM. ENOUGH REMNANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED
UPSLOPE FLOW TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND
UPWARD DUE TO THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES.

WEDNESDAY WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE A DAY WITH LESS OR MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OR PRECIPITATION...BUT THINGS WILL BE STAGING FOR WETTER
CHANGES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LONGER WAVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
BE KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY WHILE A ROBUST
SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STAYS RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITHOUT ANY DISTINCT PERTURBATIONS...BUT MOISTURE INTRUSIONS
WILL STILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INVASION FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD USHER IN MOISTURE AND RECHARGE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEKEND.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN
IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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