Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 222316 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
516 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Dry northwest flow with sct cirrus. Sfc lee trough/sfc low to give
way to high pressure invading the ern plains aft 23/15Z with a nly
wind shift.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will yo-yo this week as cold fronts periodically invade
the Land of Enchantment under northwest flow aloft. The first front
will arrive on Monday across the plains, though the cooler
temperatures will be felt on Tuesday. After a warm up on Wednesday,
temperatures will begin to tumble on Thursday and will take a more
significant plunge Thursday night and Friday. A large upper level
trough and associated cold front will bring much colder temperatures
to the area as well as a chance for light snow across northeast New
Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry northwest flow continues over NM with just a few wisps of cirrus
floating by. Tonight will remain quiet, with temperatures a few to
several degrees warmer than last night.

While NW flow continues on Monday, a trough moving into the northern
Great Plains will send a weak back door front into the plains, which
will mainly amount to a wind shift as temperatures across the plains
will continue to warm. However, cooling temperatures will continue
to filter in Monday night as the surface high settles into the
eastern plains. A breezy east wind will be possible in the RGV below
canyons Monday night as well. As a result, Tuesday`s temperatures
will drop area wide, though most notably so across central and
eastern NM.

Temperatures will ramp back up on Wednesday. A weak shortwave within
continued northwest flow aloft will cross NM. Meanwhile at the
surface, a surface high will be replaced by a lee side trough.
Westerly downslope flow will allow temperatures to jump 10 to 15
degrees over Tuesday`s readings across the plains. Could be breezy
across the northeast as well thanks to the lee side troughing as
well as a mid level jetlet associated with the shortwave.

Thursday begins the transition to much colder weather. The upper air
pattern becomes much more amplified by Thursday as the upper high
over the west coast extends up into British Columbia and a large
upper level trough starts to carve out much of the central and
eastern CONUS. The main trough axis looks to cross NM on Thursday
night and Friday, though there are differences between the GFS and
the ECMWF. The EC shows the trough farther west, sharper and
accompanied with more moisture than the GFS. As a result, the EC
shows more QPF than the GFS, though amounts have backed off on this
latest 12Z run. Much of the QPF should be focused across the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains and portions of eastern NM. Temperatures will be
plenty cold enough for snow, though snow amounts will be light. 700
mb temperatures drop to around -5 to -10C across much of northeast
and east central NM. So, whether or not there is snow, and
regardless of model solution, it will turn much colder on Friday.
High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal along and
west of the RGV, and up to 25 degrees below normal across the
plains. The cold front will actually move into NM Thursday, but cold
air advection will continue through Thursday night.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry northwest flow will remain in place over NM thru Wednesday as a
high amplitude upper level ridge develops along the west coast. This
will allow periodic back door cold fronts to shift into eastern NM.
The first cold front will arrive across the east on Monday. High
temperatures ahead of this front will trend up to 10F above normal
for central and western NM. Ventilation rates will be poor within
the Rio Grande Valley while good elsewhere. Surface high pressure
developing over eastern NM in the wake of the cold front will help
force canyon winds into the Rio Grande Valley Monday night. This
will help drag cooler air west to the Cont Divide. Ventilation will
deteriorate to poor all areas Tuesday with light surface winds.

A weak upper wave will cross northern NM Wednesday and deepen a lee
side trough over southeastern Colorado. This will help generate more
widespread breezy southwest winds over eastern NM. Temps will trend
back above normal all areas with min RH values in the 10-20% range.
Ventilation will range from fair across the west to very good over
the east. Overnight RH recoveries will still be very good across
most areas with strong midslope inversions and chilly morning lows.

The next cold front will arrive Thursday across eastern NM as strong
northerly flow aloft develops along the Front Range. This will be
the strongest cold front yet this fall season with temps trending 20
to 30F colder Friday. The big uncertainty at this time is how much
moisture will accompany an upper level wave moving south thru the
Rockies. There is potential for accumulating snows over the northern
mountains and perhaps portions of the eastern plains Friday and
Friday night. Below normal temps are expected thru next weekend.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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