Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 260526 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1026 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING
GRADUALLY THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT AS RIDGE CORE OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH TX
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE GULF COAST...WITH DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
MEXICO BY 18Z WED MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE LATE
WED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO EL PASO
AND WILL MAINLY SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO
OTHERWISE WEAK WIND SPEEDS.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...239 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN BUFFETING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE EAST. WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL TODAY...THE WIND HAS
ADDED TO THE BRISK NATURE OF THE AIR. OTHERWISE JUST SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. BY
TOMORROW...WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...LEADING TO
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WHILE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SOME MODERATE BREEZES COULD DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN SLOW TO RELAX TODAY WITH AN H7
SPEED MAX SHOWING 50 TO 55 KT NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY CLINES CORNERS HAS
SEEN SOME GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AT THE SURFACE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CARRYING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATION PLAINS. THIS
HAS KEPT WIND CHILLS FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE IN THESE AREAS AND EVEN
SOME OTHER AREAS FARTHER WEST. DAYTIME READINGS ARE STILL SHY OF
AVERAGE BY A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES. TONIGHT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY
AS COLD AS IT WAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS SHOULD
RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHILE PRONOUNCED WARMING ALOFT ENSUES.

THIS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT BACK UP TO
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. VERY FEW CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS. INTO THURSDAY THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MIGRATE INLAND WHILE BEING FLATTENED. THIS
WILL KEEP PRESSURE HEIGHTS RISING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EXCEED
NORMALS ON TURKEY DAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL ONE ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT
SHAPING UP NORTH OF NM. THIS WILL GIVE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WEST
WINDS ALOFT WHILE THE SURFACE IS COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH. THE BREEZES REACHING THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
MODERATE...BUT THE DOWN SLOPING COMPONENT WILL ONLY HELP THE
WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN IN TACT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. INTO SUNDAY...FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN SATURDAY...BUT CHANGES AT THE SURFACE WILL BE UNFOLDING IN
EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...AND NORTHEAST NM AS A CANADIAN TROUGH
USHERS A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE GFS MODEL HAS BACKED
OFF ON THIS FRONTAL INVASION...BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL DOES REVEAL
SOME IMPACTS TO EASTERN NM IN THE WAY OF SHIFTING WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL...ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SURPASS
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN A BERING SEA LOW WILL HAVE TREKKED ACROSS THE
PACIFIC AND MADE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE CLOSE ENOUGH TIES TO THE POLAR JET TO KEEP IT
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING EASTWARD AT A QUICK PACE. GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION...BUT EITHER WAY A SHOT OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...OR TROUGH IN THE CASE OF THE GFS...AS IT
OVERTAKES NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST...WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A DRY PATTERN WILL
PERSIST WITH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAY TO DAY WARMING THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS TARGET EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK FOR THE NEXT
ROUND OF WETTING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING 2 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE ON MONDAY...INDICATING THE START OF THE WARMING TREND. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT AT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
RH VALUES GENERALLY DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH
WEDNESDAY AS THE EXCEPTION WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKING DIRECTLY OVER NEW MEXICO...AND A
SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STRONGEST OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  VENTILATION RATES DROP DRAMATICALLY...WITH POOR VALUES ALL
BUT THE HIGHER WESTERN TERRAIN. AS THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH...WHERE VENTILATION WILL BE POOR. SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST SUPPORTED BY LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN FAIR
VENTILATION THERE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE LEE TROUGH DRIFTS TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND VENTILATION RATES
IMPROVE TO MAINLY FAIR TO GOOD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS BOTH MIXING
HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

TEMPERATURES DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS DECREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
DEEPENING LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ALL EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A
CLOSED LOW BY LATE SATURDAY...BUT SOLUTIONS VARY IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES NEW MEXICO. WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR
LATE MONDAY...AND SNOW LEVELS DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW MOST LIKELY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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