Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 301140 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Still some light snow across east central and northeast NM early this
morning. This will continue to diminish this morning as the parent
storm system continues to move away from the state. MVFR/IFR cigs
associated with the SN will gradually improve this morning. As
expected, IFR cigs have developed across portions of central NM and
dense fog has been reported at KONM and KLVS. These conditions should
improve through 14-15Z. Breezy to windy northwest winds will also
return today. Gusts to 45KT are expected across far NE NM including
KCAO. Elsewhere, gusts should be AOB 35KT. Winds will decrease late
this afternoon. VFR should prevail after 18Z.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Impressive storm churning northeast out of NM early this morning.
Snow will come to an end this morning in the northeast but strong
winds will continue well into the afternoon. Dry northwest flow will
take over later today and continue through Monday. Gusty breezes
today will diminish Monday, with a warming trend each day. A weak
short wave trough will approach northern NM Tuesday and cross the
state Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some rain and snow showers will
favor the northeast during this time. A cold front will bring in
cooler air Wednesday, mainly for the east. A ridge of high pressure
builds in late in the work week. A storm complex along the west
coast will bring moisture north into NM next weekend, and perhaps
beyond that.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Deepening pressure gradient at the surface and aloft as the
impressive cut off low churns to the northeast. Snow will continue
to wrap around the low. We will extend the winter storm warning for
Union and Harding Counties through 6am and let the rest expire at
3am MDT. We will then have a wind advisory for Union County during
the day today. The freeze warnings will remain for now, although it
looks like the one for ABQ will not be widespread or too significant.
Sunshine will be the rule today except in the northeast. Highs will
be much higher today, by 10 to 20 degrees. That sounds good but they
are still 10 to 25 degrees below normal for much of the area.

Dry and not as cold tonight with diminishing wind. The northwest flow
aloft will weaken Monday with lots of sunshine and continued warming.
Highs will reach near normal in the west but be mostly below normal
in the east. Overall a nice start to the week.

A short wave trough coming onshore Monday in the Pacific Northwest
will drop southeast and deepen as it crosses NM Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will develop Tuesday
afternoon in the northeast, with rain and northern mountain snow
showers Tuesday and Wednesday over the northeast third of the CWA.
A surface cold front will also cross the state with cooler highs on
Wednesday, especially in the east.

A strong ridge of high pressure will build over NM late in the week
with a dry and warming trend. Highs will be near or above normal by
Friday. Models are in decent agreement a deep closed low will develop
along the west coast next weekend and draw moisture north into NM.
Next weekend will see an increasing chance of showers and storms,
favoring the western and northern mountains. Highs will lower a
little while winds pick back up. Precipitation could extend into the
following week. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The strong and unseasonably cold upper level low that brought snow
to much of NM has shifted east of the area early this morning,
though snow is persisting across northeast and portions of east
central NM. The snow is expected to diminish early this morning, but
since the system continues to strengthen, strong winds on the back
side of the system will persist across northeast NM. Gusts near 50
mph will be possible, mainly across Union County. Breezy to locally
windy conditions will be noted most other locations. Winds will
decrease by sunset. Temperatures will remain quite cold area wide
and the winds will make it feel even colder. High temps will be up
to 15 degrees below normal west of the central mountain chain, and
up to 30 degrees below normal across the east.

The warming and drying trend will continue through Tuesday. A weak
wave will cross NM in northwest flow aloft on Monday/Monday night
which will keep a few northwesterly breezes in the forecast. A
stronger shortwave will drop south across the central Rockies and
clip NE NM Tuesday night and Wednesday. This stronger system will
send a cold front through the state . Moisture will increase behind
the back door segment of the front. This will allow showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms to develop along and just behind the
front as it moves into the area late Tuesday night, and again
Wednesday afternoon as the front nudges up to the central mountain
chain. The combination of increased moisture, low level upslope flow
and upper level support should yield showers and maybe a
thunderstorm across the Sangre de Cristo and possibly the
Sandia/Manzano Mountains and adjacent high plains. Temperatures on
Tuesday will still remain below normal for most areas, but will fall
again on Wednesday. Portions of eastern NM will be 10 to 20 degrees
below normal once again.

Upper level ridging will build in for the end of the week.
Temperatures will warm, and should be near or above normal by
Friday. Humidities will lower. Much of western NM will see daytime
RH below 15 percent as early as Wednesday and continuing through
Saturday.

Ventilation will generally be good or better through the week. The
only exceptions are Tuesday across the northeast and Thursday across
portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley and the eastern plains.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for the following
zones... NMZ535>537.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning for the
following zones... NMZ530-531.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ530.

Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for the following
zones... NMZ519.

&&

$$


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