Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011134 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR KELP TODAY...VERY DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NRN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS
WITH WEAK SFC LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER NERN PLAINS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY
TO A WETTER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIDWEEK SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RUNNING FOR A SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TURBULENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...OVER THE TOP OF LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO LINKED UP TO SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING ON PACE OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVEMENTS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. GOOD START STRENGTHENS
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE
EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE BREAKING OUT OF INTERIOR WESTERN
CANADA WILL HELP SPAWN BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS WILL
HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE PATHS FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE SEEPAGE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
MAY HELP DELIVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHBOUND PARADE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY...SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PHASING UP WITH ANY
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS...AND MOVING ALL TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A SHARPER AND MORE
MUSCULAR TROUGH MARCHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE MUSCLE MUCH
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND TRAILS A BIG BAGGY TROUGH WITH MUCH
SLOWER AND LESS DYNAMIC DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CAN PULL A
TROUGHIER PATTERN OUT OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...AND CAN SPLIT THE
DYNAMIC DIFFERENCE WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE OUTER PERIOD
FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW...PENDING IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN FUTURE
RUNS.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
A GOOD WAY TO START SEPTEMBER FOR CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...WITH
OTHER SPOTS ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING CLOSE.
SOME COOLER AIR OOZING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD
CLAYTON AND UNION COUNTY A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD WITH SURFACE
WINDS PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERHEAD...TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER AIR INTO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND USHERS IN SOME REDUCED TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BROADLY
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
STILL IN THE EAST. TURBULENT BUT NOT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL RUN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...AND MAY HELP TOUCH OFF A
QUICK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS...AND IN NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SKIES OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERN MARGINS OF RIDGE CORE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE BOOT HEEL STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. RIDGE RETREAT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEST AND SOUTH...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER AND ABOVE
EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE RETREAT WILL PERMIT THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH SPOTTIER COVERAGE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERN MARGIN RETREATING FURTHER EAST...WITH
GRADUAL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
TURN...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FAVORED...ALONG WITH SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START
INCREASING...KICKING OFF A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY RUN NORMAL OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER...CONTINUED WARMEST IN THE EAST. WITH
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EAST...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS
WILL BUILD UP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...GENERAL COOLING TREND IN A
MOIST AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HELPED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL BLANKET ARIZONA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AS WEAK COOL PUSH WORKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THIS
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL STILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT NOT AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...VENTILATION RATES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
WEAKEN. NORTH OF I-40...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON
MESA AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWWD AND COMBINES WITH THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO WHICH PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT NUMEROUS...PERHAPS HEAVY
RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DIFFER WHETHER THE EAST WILL BE FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
BACKDOOR FRONT OR IF THE WEST IS FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE BAJA. AT ANY
RATE...A TREND BACK TO A WETTER TO MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY










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