Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211121 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MT obscurations in areas of MVFR and localized IFR cigs/vsbys in
precipitation and br from mainly the RGV eastward to the TX border before
16Z as upper low over central NM tracks slowly to the northeast.
Thunderstorms with at least ISOLD to SCT coverage to redevelop over
the higher terrain, especially the northern mountains, aft 18Z then
drift to the east and southeast keeping at least brief mt
obscurations persisting.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A moist and unstable air mass will support scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day the remainder of the week.
Wednesday and Thursday could be among the most active days of the
week before a drying trend Friday into the weekend. Daytime
temperatures will remain below seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Even though expected sky cover will create less than ideal eclipse
viewing, if viewable at all, it`s nice to see beneficial rainfall
fairly widespread over the area at this early hour and falling at
manageable rates. However, next round of stronger convection taking
shape over the southeast plains and we`ll closely monitor water-
logged eastern Chaves, Roosevelt and Curry counties for localized
flooding through mid-morning as this next wave of convection develops
northward. Latest HRRR also favors eastern Lincoln County for
localized heavy rain before midday.

Well-defined cyclonic circulation evident just northwest of ABQ in
various GOES16 imagery. This feature will continue to slowly translate
newd today with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms
expected to favor the north and east halves. Plume of 1.3" to 1.7"
precipitable water across the southeast half. A warmer boundary
layer will also promote scattered deep convection from central to
SW/SC zones. Anticipate a strong storm or two to roll off the south-
central high terrain with axis of best CAPE expected along the lower
Pecos River Valley and points east.

500mb heights gradually rise Tuesday with a dome of higher pressure
aloft broadening from southwest NM into northern Chihuahua. This
will place most of our area beneath a weak west-northwest steering
flow with convection favoring areas along/east of the central
mountain chain and higher terrain SC/SW. Some drying likely along/west
of the Divide in NW NM. Next backdoor cold front into northeast
areas on Tuesday, possibly before midday if the NAM and ECMWF are
correct. A strong if not marginally severe storm or two cannot be
ruled out across the NE/EC plains vicinity of this boundary Tuesday
but surface- based CAPE values not looking overly impressive.

Upper ridge continues to strengthen overhead Wednesday with main
centroid remaining to our southwest. Backdoor front/associated
easterly push will undoubtedly be enhanced by east plains convection
Tuesday PM. Moderate easterly gap winds along the RGV Tue PM-Wed AM
may set up better environ east of the Divide to east slopes of the
central mountain chain. Otherwise, aside from Wednesday PM, Thursday-
Friday looking quite active as the cut- off low offshore southern CA
opens up and allows brief spurt of high PWAT air to work northward
and opens door to another weak disturbance and eventually a piece of
the former cut-off. Drier and warmer will be the main message this
weekend but will need to watch eastern areas for possible backdoor
frontal intrusions. kj

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper low circulation to continue moving northeast and across
northeast NM today before exiting. Early this morning, showers are
prevailing over the north and east as some drier air, at least
aloft, is shown to be tracking over the south and west in the low`s
wake. Plentiful low level moisture remains in place and will combine
with daytime heating to trigger scattered to numerous storms over
the higher terrain by this afternoon. Cell motion will vary as the
low circulation moves over the region. Through the morning cells
over the south and east will move to the east and northeast, while
movement will be to the southwest over northwest NM. Later this
afternoon, cell motion is forecast to be primarily to the southeast
or east. Vent rates today will be good east and south with areas of
fair to poor northwest and north central.

A frontal boundary will stretch across northeast and east central NM
Tuesday, while the upper high becomes centered over far southern NM.
Showers and storms will be most plentiful over the central mt chain
and east Tuesday and Tuesday night. Storm motion will be generally
to the east or southeast, except along the frontal boundary where
motion may be to the south or southwest. Vent rates Tuesday to be
good over the north but with areas of fair to poor rates from the
southwest over Socorro county and across the Central Highlands.

Wetting rain from showers and storms Wednesday is most likely from
the west central and along the central mt chain and over the
northeast. Steering flow will be to east and southeast. Vent rates
look to be diminished overall Wednesday.

An uptick in convection is anticipated Wednesday night through
Thursday night as a portion of the weak closed low off the SoCal
coast opens up and ejects over NM. Once this wave passes, the Great
Basin high regains strength during the weekend, allowing western NM
to dry out although the east will remain under the influence of
northwest to north winds aloft and a frontal passage possibly Sunday
night. High temperatures through Friday will be below average, while
lows linger above normal.

ECMWF and GFS bring a westerly moving closed low up the RGV, over
the TX Big Bend and towards southeast NM late this weekend. However,
the Great Basin upper high appears sufficiently robust and sprawling
to deflect the main impacts to the east of NM. The high center may
shift far enough east early next week to help keep the drying trend
in place for the west and expand it to eastern NM.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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