Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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000
FXAK68 PAFC 141316
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday Night)...

Satellite imagery shows upper-level troughing remains established
across much of Alaska with what was a well-defined low now moving
towards Yukon. Cloud cover remains in place across the Copper
River Basin as a result, with clearing skies farther west across
the Susitna Valley south through Anchorage and the Kenai
Peninsula. Nighttime microphysics imagery shows low stratus and/or
fog developing across portions of the Kenai Peninsula. With
cooling continuing through sunrise, fog should keep expanding. Not
too confident if it will expand all the way into the Anchorage
bowl or Mat-Su Valley, but definitely can`t rule it out.

The weather for southcentral Alaska throughout much of Thursday
will remain on the quiet side. Colder low/mid-level air in wake of
the aforementioned moving over the Gulf will yield some
convective shower activity across the northern Gulf and Prince
William Sound later today. Renewed onshore flow and saturated air
~750-900mb will likely result in some snow for the coastal Chugach
adjacent to the PWS, as well as some snow showers moving across
lower elevations later this afternoon and evening. Forecast snow
amounts are generally in the 1-3 inch range from Valdez towards
Cordova, but will highly vary on individual shower placement.

Much higher precipitation amounts are expected from late Friday
through Saturday, as a strong front moves west to east across
Southcentral. Forecast confidence remains low, with high
uncertainty and model spread. What we do know is that this system
will bring stronger winds, moderate to heavy precipitation, and
warmer air, with moderate to high confidence that many locations
will warm into the high 30s and low 40s by Saturday afternoon.
Likely the biggest forecast question will revolve around
precipitation - where precipitation will be greatest/how much
downsloping is expected, if/when precipitation will transition
from snow to rain at lower elevations, and how much snow versus
how much rain is expected. Stay tuned as we monitor this system
and continue to refine the forecast.

-Brown/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The front extending of a low near Kamchatka continues tracking
over the Western Aleutians this morning before pushing into the
western Bering Sea and Central Aleutians. The front stalls and
continues weakening through Friday morning. A stretch of gale
force winds and a band of precipitation extends along the front,
impacting the Western/Central Aleutians through early Friday
morning. The chance for snow showers persists across the Eastern
Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula today as colder Arctic
air continues to filter across the Bering Sea.

Conditions across Southwest Alaska are quieter comparatively.
High temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, with teens
and low 20`s across the Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay and
single digits in the Kuskokwim Delta. Sky conditions will be
mostly cloudy through the end of the week.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Sunday through Wednesday...

A large Arctic upper level trough stretching over the Bering
continues to deepen and regress through the forecast period. In
the East, a ridge continues to build over Mainland Alaska,
expanding to cover the the Interior and influences Northern Alaska
weather by the end of the period. These two features help steer
surface lows and fronts across the region, with most of the active
weather occurring across the Southern half of the state.

A couple of well developed lows to the South of the Aleutians
spread their fronts over the Aleutians and Southern Bering. The
first moves across the Aleutians starting Sunday, and crosses the
Alaska Peninsula for Wednesday. The second moves over the Western
Aleutians by Wednesday. Locally heavy rain and snow mixed becomes
rain will spread over the Central Aleutians Monday and Tuesday,
and into the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN into Wednesday. Gusty
Easterly winds starts Sunday over the Western Aleutians, becoming
Southerly with possible gale force winds over the Eastern
Aleutians and AKPEN Tuesday through Wednesday.

The remnants of a front will spread precipitation from Kodiak
Island along the Eastern Kenai into Prince William Sound, but
concentrates its energy further East on Sunday. The Southeast will
draw a break as the ridge continues its build over the state
through Wednesday. Warmer temperatures and rainfall will move over
Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet through Wednesday.


Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Patchy fog
development overnight into the early morning may be possible under
clear skies, with diminishing chances after sunrise.

&&


$$


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