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000
FXAK68 PAFC 071412
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
510 AM AKST FRI MAR 7 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH THE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REFLECTS A SMALL SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
MATANUSKA/SUSITNA VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE
EASTERN GULF HAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
COASTLINE. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND ADJACENT WESTERN BERING WATERS
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THE SATELLITE DEPICTING A SURFACE LOW
JUST EAST OF ATKA. THE REST OF THE BERING SEA HAS STRATUS WITH THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE COMPLEX LOW APPROACHING THE
GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE EC IS THE PREFERRED MODEL OF
CHOICE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH THIS COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM. THE EC
COINCIDES BETTER WITH THE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTING THE LOW
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND THE LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF ALASKA. THE GFS/GEMGLB MODELS SEEM TO BE TRYING TO
CONSOLIDATE THE MULTIPLE LOWS. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE COMPLEX LOW. THE MODELS
ARE HANDLING THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS VERY WELL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
WILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA COASTLINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY A COMPLEX LOW WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND BY SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL BY SUNDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOWNSLOPED OUT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN CHAIN...
A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
BERING AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA/EASTERN
BERING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW FROM
THE PRIBILOFS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING...WHEREAS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY FROM THE AKPEN TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
OVER ICE FREE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED TERM AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SERIES OF NORTH PACIFIC LOWS TRACKING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN MOVING INLAND ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD GENERALLY RESULT
IN OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WITH THE EXACT DETAILS ULTIMATELY DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF EACH SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AS THESE SYSTEMS CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 127 132 138 150
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 126 127 160 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

PLD/CB MAR 14