


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
799 FXAK68 PAFC 071222 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 422 AM AKDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A low in the Gulf of Alaska continues tracking eastward over the next couple of days. Various shortwaves rotating over the top of the low have brought thunderstorm activity to portions of the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley yesterday and similar conditions are expected today, though less numerous. Isolated thunderstorm activity is most likely over the Wrangell and Talkeetna Mountains as well as along the upslope regions of the western Alaska Range in the western Susitna Valley. Widespread rain showers are expected across much of Southcentral through Tuesday morning. Briefly drier conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon for some areas (not including the coast or upslope regions of the mountain ranges) as a transient coastal ridge moves in. The coastal ridging moves through quickly as the next front moves into the southern Gulf of Alaska Wednesday evening and moves towards the Southcentral coast through Thursday morning. While Wednesday morning looks mostly dry, aside from a few showers across the northern Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin, the afternoon and evening will turn more active towards the coast and Kodiak Island. There is reasonable confidence that a North Pacific low, currently near the Western Aleutians this afternoon, will track to the southern Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday evening. The front will lift into the western to southwestern Gulf and bring rain to Kodiak Island as well as gusty easterly winds during the afternoon and evening. Light rain is also possible along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound Wednesday evening as flow aloft shifts to southerly and southeasterly at the surface aiding with upslope enhancement. Early indications are that this low will end up moving into the Gulf by Thursday with continued unsettled weather along the coast and Kodiak Island. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)... As a low pressure system exits south of the Alaska Peninsula, the source of active weather in the Bering/Aleutians shifts to the building low over the Western Aleutians this morning. Higher pressure will fill in behind the exiting low over mainland Southwest Alaska, keeping the pattern over the area mostly inactive with the exceptions for afternoon showers. Given the drier pattern, the lower Kuskokwim valley will retain chances for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday extending into the foothills of the Kuskokwim Mountains. Between the two aforementioned lows, a col over the eastern Bering will keep the area mostly covered in stratus clouds and coastal fog with light winds into Wednesday morning. The building low passing through the western Aleutians will allow for localized small craft winds and rainfall. The low will elongate as it tracks eastward, reaching the Eastern Aleutians by Tuesday. By Wednesday afternoon, the low is expected to reach the southern extent of the Southwestern mainland, potentially re-initiating chance rainfall across the Bristol Bay area by midweek. This may also increase gusty winds especially out of gap regions such as the Kamishak Gap. -CL/JAR && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... The long-term period begins with a shortwave ridge over Southcentral Alaska, weak flow across Southwest Alaska, and a North Pacific low south of the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN). The ridge over Southcentral Wednesday looks to move northward and reorient with a more east to west axis across the central interior by Thursday. This will open the door for the North Pacific low to move into the Gulf of Alaska by Thursday. Wettest locations look to be across Kodiak Island, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound with scattered showers for Southwest and interior Southcentral. Steady rains across the Southcentral coast taper off to a more showery regime Friday and Saturday very much like inland locations as the low weakens and energy goes to Southeast Alaska. Further to the west, an upper level shortwave looks to dig southward from northern Kamchatka into the central Bering by Thursday. Rain looks to be mostly confined to the Bering but may make it as far south as the Pribilof Islands and as far east as Nunivak Island. Elsewhere, a ridge across the western Bering will weaken into Thursday and allow for a few weak systems tracking southeastward from southern Kamchatka to move over the Western Aleutians and Bering by Friday. Rain with these systems will be light. The ridge looks to build back across the western Bering by Saturday. Confidence remains low and uncertainty remains high regarding the track of a North Pacific low Thursday through Saturday. Some guidance keeps the low south of the Aleutian Chain (Canadian and somewhat the ECMWF) while some guidance wants to clip the Central/Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN with the front bringing another round of light rain to those areas. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions expected, with the potential for periods of MVFR visibility as showers move into the terminal from the north. Ceilings drop to around 4-6 kft with the arrival of rain showers but should stay VFR through tonight. Confidence is lower regarding the timing of showers. It`s possible that rain will persist over the terminal for much of the morning and early afternoon. However, this forecast leans towards a drier solution, with showers remaining along the Chugach Front Range from late morning through the afternoon, then becoming more widespread over the terminal this evening. && $$