Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 231318
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
518 AM AKDT WED JUL 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVELS ARE IN THE MIDST OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CHANGE
THIS MORNING...WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND AK AND A SMALLER
ONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS OVER KODIAK ISLAND. A
LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN BERING...WITH A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW
IS JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER OVER
NORTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. RIDGES ARE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT FEATURES ARE ON THE MOVE.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND WILL TIGHTEN AS IT MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
CORRESPONDING RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHEASTERN CUT-OFF WILL SAIL
INLAND TODAY AND RACE EAST...WHILE THE CUT-OFF NEAR THE KENAI
MOVES OVER THE GULF AND IS REABSORBED BY THE TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE KENAI ENLARGES INTO A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF ON THU THAT PERSISTS
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS MIGRATE
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS EDGES NORTH AND COVERS
MOST OF THE BERING BY THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN
AK THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SECOND FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN BERING THU NIGHT THAT MOVES TO THE AK RANGE BY THE
WEEKEND.

MODEL SELECTION WAS DETERMINED BY INITIALIZATION...AND THE EC
SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SOLUTION...WITH WPC
INCLUDED IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...


SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS ON SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHANGING TO ALL
SHOWERS AS THE LOW MIGRATES EAST AND ENDS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE WEEK. SOME CHANNELED TERRAIN WIND ENHANCEMENT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF WEAKENS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TODAY...THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH THU...AND THEN THE
SECOND FRONT FRI AND SAT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
 FOG OVER THE BERING WILL BE REPLACED BY RAIN AND WIND AS A FRONT
ARRIVES FROM KAMCHATKA EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH INLAND
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

DS JUL 14


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