Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 242133
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
133 PM AKDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS ONE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...WITH
RIDGING OVER SE AK THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WHILE A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THERE ARE TWO
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...ONE OVER THE GULF
COAST STRETCHING BACK THROUGH THE COOK INLET REGION...AND THE
OTHER OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN TODAY...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES SHOWING IN THE
PRECIPITATION FIELDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS.
THERE ARE SOME LARGER DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM...BUT THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER
EVENTS WITHIN THE DIFFERENCES. OVERALL...THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE
USED FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AK WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED AS
GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS..

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL IS MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND
MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WITH LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE COOK INLET REGION AND INLAND AREAS. GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD WEAKEN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE KENAI
AND WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF
A BOUNDARY AS A FORCING MECHANISM THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. IF THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THESE AREAS HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION. BEHIND THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL THE AREA
WILL BE IN A SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
CLEARING BEHIND THIS RAIN THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THAT
INITIATES WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN WARM ENOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AS WITH SOUTHCENTRAL AK...THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL BRING
RAINFALL TO THAT AREA...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN BETWEEN THE
TWO LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA COASTLINE BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN THE TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS
PICKING UP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHEAST
MAINLAND WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
FOG FORMING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN/STRATUS FOR KODIAK ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN
GULF AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD HAIDA GWAII BY FRIDAY EVENING. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH THE COOK INLET BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY.
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH STRATUS AND FOG BEFORE THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW
ENTERING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL WILL TRACK THROUGH THE BERING
SEA AND REACH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH STRATUS AND FOG GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SCHRECK/PLD



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