Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 171342
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
542 AM AKDT THU APR 17 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TWO MAIN
PRESSURE CENTERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONE SPINNING NORTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THESE LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATIONS ARE KEEPING RAGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS. DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT ARE BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF
...SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND MUCH OF THE BERING. THE NEARLY ZONAL
JET STREAM...WHICH IS SITUATED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...IS MOVING
A BETTER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF ATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE WEAK
WAVES MOVING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW CENTERS. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TRACK OF THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. GALE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE
GULF WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD BE MONITORED AS THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM MAY TURN FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN
KENAI THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL EFFECT THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE KENAI
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A FEW RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING INLAND. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INLAND...RAIN WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BUT SHOULD SPREAD
RAIN THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL ON FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ON SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF SLOWLY MIGRATES
WESTWARD THIS MORNING...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
REDEVELOP AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER BRISTOL BAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING TODAY...WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE MORNING HOURS.
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL THEN SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL THEN RETURN TO SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY ON
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM
THE SOUTHERN BERING TO THE AKPENN TODAY...KEEPING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FROM DUTCH HARBOR EAST
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. OUT WEST...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT ALEUTIAN LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE SUNDAY.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH RIDING THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MAINLAND. THERE IS
NOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES TO MUCH OF THE MAINLAND UNTIL MID WEEK AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

KH/DEK APR 14



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