Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 311355
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
555 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE
NORTHWEST COAST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING. A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA
AND IT STARTING TO SHIFT EAST. AT THE SURFACE...DRIER CONDITIONS
ENSUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH RIDGING BUILDING
IN FROM THE EASTERN BERING. HOWEVER...RAIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE LOW MOVING RAIN INLAND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE UPDATES...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS CONCENTRATED ON THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. THE NAM WAS THE FAVORED MODEL FOR
THE SOUTHEAST AND CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL USED FOR THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY AROUND THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THEN DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT.
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES LATE TODAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS TAPER OFF. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. ON MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM EASTERN
RUSSIA...THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER.


SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY TODAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THEN TO BRISTOL BAY OVERNIGHT. RAIN
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE WAVE TODAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN ON MONDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE
BERING STRAIT ALONG ANOTHER WAVE MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC LOW.


BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A WARMER AIR MASS MOVES BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS RIDGING
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE BERING. THE ARCTIC LOW MEANDERS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST SENDING MULTIPLE WAVES SOUTH. THE STRONG RIDGE
INHIBITS MOST OF THE ENERGY KEEPING THE FORECAST DRIER WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW
FORMING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF A WETTER
PATTERN SETTING UP SOONER IF THE LOW DEVELOPS FASTER IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 127 130 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE. &&

$$

KH AUG 14



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