Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 311120
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
620 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
HEADS TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CARRYING VCSH/VCTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK IS LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOWS UP
VERY WELL ON IR SATELLITE AND ALSO AS A FINE LINE ON THE LOWEST
TILT FROM OUR RADAR. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND HAVE
PRODUCED HEAVY RAINS WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING. OVER THE LAST HOUR
SOME DEVELOPMENT HAS EXTENDED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR
PALESTINE TO GEORGETOWN THAT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. NOT SURE THAT MUCH OF THIS IS REACHING THE
GROUND THIS MORNING BUT IT MAY AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO CROCKETT AND POINTS NORTH.

THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY WITH OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEING THE
FIRST TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD
SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS AXIS OF
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIE ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR
WITH FORECAST PW VALUES OF 2-2.2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN
CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GFS NOW IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE ECMWF IN SHEARING OUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
KEEPING LOWER HEIGHTS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND A SLOW WARMUP
BACK INTO THE MID 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD. 38

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...AND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS...
EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  72  90  70  92 /  40  40  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  75  90  72  91 /  30  50  40  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  88  79  88 /  20  30  40  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42


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