Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011812
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
112 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BETWEEN
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AND THE COAST. THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE
FOCAL POINT FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. THE
PREVALENT LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE LIMITED HEATING SO IT MAY
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR CONVECTION TO FILE THIS AFTERNOON.

CIGS HAVE BEEN MVFR/IFR BETWEEN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AND THE
COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST THAT THE STALLED FRONT
MAY BE SLOWLY DRIFTING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS MVFR CIGS HAVE
RETURNED TO THE HOUSTON TERMINALS.

LATE TONIGHT...A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE... BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PREDAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AT 20 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING
VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.            44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY WATCHING RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL AND CENTRAL COUNTIES
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WARMING CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN NOTED (VIA IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY) ON THE ACTIVITY OFF TO OUR EAST...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY RESIDE. VALUES ALONG OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES ARE >1.50 INCHES...AND THIS SUPPORTS POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IF STORMS DO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND THIS COULD BECOME A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IF ANY KIND OF HEATING CAN GET GOING. WITH THE
GROUNDS STILL WET...IT WILL NOT TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

DO NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF THINGS TO CHANGE IN THE GRIDS ON THE MORNING
UPDATE.  42

CLIMATE...
APRIL 2016 HAS GONE DOWN AS THE WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD FOR HOUSTON
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT (IAH) WITH 14.39 INCHES AND THE 6TH WETTEST
APRIL ON RECORD FOR HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT (HOU) WITH 8.95 INCHES.
42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  75  58  76  55 /  40  40  20   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  80  62  79  56 /  70  60  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  81  68  78  65 /  70  60  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...41



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