Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231141
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS IN AND NEAR KIAH/KHOU THIS MORNING WITH
A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF TSRA IN THE GULF SE OF KGLS. STARTED
THESE TAFS WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. DO NOT THINK THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST MUCH PAST A FEW HOURS. THERE IS A BIT OF AN
ENHANCED MOISTURE AXIS SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY BUT IT DOES NOT
EXTEND MUCH FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP MOST TAFS DRY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD SEE A FEW STORMS ON THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP VCTS IN TAFS FOR A 3 HR WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON
AT KIAH/KHOU. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH MAINLY
VFR CIGS AND CALM WINDS. MAY SEE SOME LOWER VSBY AT THE USUAL
SITES OF KCXO/KLBX ETC.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS
TO THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE BOUNDARY WAS
RATHER DIFFUSE BUT AT 4 AM LOOKED TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN KBPT AND
KJAS TO BETWEEN KUTS AND KLFK. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS PICKED UP BY THE MODELS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.

A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR AND OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN
SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES OVER THE INLAND AREAS MAINLY FROM THE
HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH MESO-SCALE
PROCESSES MAY THROW A WRENCH INTO THAT EQUATION. AS OCCURRED
YESTERDAY...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

WITH THE UPPER LOW SHEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME ISOLATED AND THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS. UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR INLAND AREAS BOTH DAYS BUT WILL BECOME MORE COMMON
OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE FAR INLAND AREAS MAY REACH TO AROUND 100
DURING THIS PERIOD.

BY AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DIGGING AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BOTH
MODELS PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AND BACKDOOR THE FRONT INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR BOTH DAYS.

40

MARINE...
SEABREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON AND LANDBREEZES IN THE MORNING ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MISS RIVER
DELTA FILLS AND SHIFTS WEST SLOWLY TODAY/TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD
EXPAND TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
39

AVIATION...

EARLY LOOK AT CHANGES FOR 12Z TAFS...CONVECTION WILL BE MAIN
CONCERN AS COVERAGE COULD BE A BIT MORE THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER
LOW OVER MISS RIVER DELTA COULD BE A FACTOR. OTHER QUESTION WILL
BE JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR TSRA. LOOK FOR
SEA/LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE COAST FOR KGLS/KLBX. OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS/VFR CIGS BUT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
LOOK FOR SIMILAR TRENDS GOING INTO TONIGHT/TOMORROW. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  99  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  76  98  77  95 /  30  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  93  80  92 /  20  20  30  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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