Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 270011
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
711 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE HARRIS AND FORT BEND COUNTY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT EXPIRED AT 6 PM. EVERYTHING ELSE LEFT
UNTOUCHED FOR NOW.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPARENT SEABREEZE WERE
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE METRO HOUSTON SITES AT 23Z. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DIMINISH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 01Z AND
03Z. AFTER A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THAT VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE
INLAND SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ARW FORECASTS THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE. THINK THAT THE MAIN SCENARIO WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS
REACHED. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME...GOING TO ALLOW FF WATCH FOR HARRIS AND
FORT BEND COUNTIES TO CONTINUE THRU 6 PM AS THERE ARE COME CELLS
NEARBY. ATTENTION TURNS TO N AND W TX AS CONVECTION FIRES THERE.
VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS DISSIPATING BEFORE EVEN
REACHING SE TX. HOWEVER...LATEST COUPLE HRRR RUNS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME REMNANTS TO MOVE INTO N & E PARTS OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUSPECT CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW BUT WILL LEAVE SOME
POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT FCST AND LET NEXT SHIFT UPDATE WITH TRENDS.

WX ON WED & THURS WILL CONSIST OF WHAT WOULD TYPICALLY BE NORMAL
EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS AROUND HERE. ANTICIPATE SCT PRECIP ACTIVITY
TO START DEVELOPING ONCE READINGS APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
DURING LATE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

A PORTION OF THE EASTERN H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION INTO THE NW
GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL THEN FLATTEN THEN RETROGRADE BACK
INTO MEXICO GOING INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEXT TROF TO DIG INTO TX. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BACK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. REALLY NOT A BIG FAN OF SEEING THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS TRYING TO BRING A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SE TX LATE SAT AND SUN. THE LAST THING WE NEED IS
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTMS.  47

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT THE
STRONG TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND IN PLACE WILL HELP MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THIS COULD BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE WX PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE...OTHER CONCERNS
THESE SEVERAL DAYS INVOLVE RIP CURRENTS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TIDES. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH
TIDE NEAR AND ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR
PENINSULA THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  88  73  86  73 /  30  40  20  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  88  74  87  74 /  30  40  20  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  86  78  85  78 /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$


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