Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301741
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM INLAND OF MATAGORDA BAY AND WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CARRIED A VCTS FOR LBX AND
THE METRO AREA TAF SITES. COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LOW BUT BOTH THE
TXTECH WRF AND 12Z HRRR RUNS FOCUS ACTIVITY NEAR THE METRO AREA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
REGION. AGAIN THE NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE GFS IS
LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR
NOW AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THIS EVENING. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  92  76  92  68 /  10  10  10  30  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  90  77  91  72 /  10  20  10  30  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  79  87  77 /  10  20  10  20  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...38


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