Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 040108
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
808 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT WEAKENING ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF COLORADO AND AUSTIN COUNTIES THAT FORMED ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT. WILL PROBABLY DO ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE IN A
LITTLE BIT ONCE THE HGX RADAR GOES PPINE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWS REMAINING SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DISSIPATING ALONG WITH
A WELL DEFINED FINE LINE INDICATING WHERE OUTFLOW HAS MERGED WITH
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KIAH SHORTLY
AND TURN WINDS TO MORE SE/S INSTEAD OF EAST. OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CIGS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAY BE SOME GROUND FOG AT BEST AT KLBX
AND KCXO WITH WINDS DECOUPLING. DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THAT HAPPENING SINCE STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A DECENT T/TD
SPREAD. GFS/NAM/WRF-NMM STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ISO SHRA/TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES MOVES OVER THE AREA. AGAIN NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT
LEAST MENTION POSSIBILITY. LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE FROM 20Z-00Z
IN THE AFTERNOON AND KIAH SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SEABREEZE WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS GALVESTON...BRAZORIA...AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES AT 3 PM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF ANGLETON...AND MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEABREEZE AS IT PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF
THE 12Z DATA SHOWED A RIDGE OVERHEAD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM 700
MB UP THROUGH 200 MB. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.

THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT.
A MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHER
THAN FROM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...NAMELY
THE ARW... ACTUALLY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. THIS IS TEMPERED BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL ALONG
AND OFF THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND GENERALLY EAST OF METRO
HOUSTON.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE MID AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE
DAYTIME HEAT. BY WEDNESDAY SOME LOCATIONS MAY START TO SEE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACH THE 103 TO 108 RANGE. DAYTIME
HIGHS OVER THE MID AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS INLAND OF THE COAST AND
BAYS. THE HEAT INDICES MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS WELL. FOR NOW THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES
BELOW CRITERIA BUT DO EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH TO NEAR 108

40

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN FREEPORT AND SOUTHERN LA THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE BY SINKING AIR ALOFT.

LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.  44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST SW OF KGLS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR
INLAND BEFORE DIEING OUT. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  99  77  99  78 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  97  78  96  79 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  83  91  83 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39


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