Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 270917
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
417 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper low was shearing out over Louisiana and far eastern
Texas early this morning. The best moisture axis evident on water
vapor and the RAP analysis was across the Louisiana coast west-
southwest into the Upper Texas coastal waters and across Matagorda
Bay. RAP PW/s were between 2.2 and 2.3 inches in these areas.
Drier air rotating around the upper low was evident with PW/s 2
inches along and north of a line from about College Station to
Livingston.

The model consensus for today is for the deeper area of moisture
to move inland and north. Best chances for rain and thunderstorms
will be along the coast this morning with the storms moving inland
over the northern counties this afternoon. With the PW/s still
near 2.3 inches, there is a chance for locally heavy rainfall with
the stronger storms later this morning especially for locations
along and south of the I-10 corridor. The cloud cover and rain
areas will again make for a difficult temperature forecast. Still,
the potential is there for many inland locations to reach into the
lower 90s this afternoon.

For the remainder of the week, drier air will work its way
overhead. Although the models keep a weakness in the upper ridge
over Southeast Texas, 500 mb heights actually rise over the
weekend and through the first half of next week. This combination
should result in daytime highs reaching into the lower and mid 90s
and for at least afternoon and early evening chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

40

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting out
this morning over the upper Texas coast. Like the last couple of
days, thunderstorm activity should spread inland during the day.
Overall coverage of storms should be less today as moisture
decreases some and the upper level trough moves west. Winds this
morning are running about 15 knots from the south for much of the
Upper Texas Coast. Winds should decrease later today and tonight.
Light to moderate southerly winds should continue into the
weekend.

Seas will be lingering around 3 feet today but decrease some as
winds decrease for the end of the week. Tide levels will likely
remain near normal levels or maybe a half foot above normal.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      93  76  95  76  96 /  50  20  30  10  20
Houston (IAH)              93  77  95  77  95 /  50  20  40  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            89  83  92  83  91 /  60  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39


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