Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 140337
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
937 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING UNDERWAY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS STRATUS
SLOWLY FILLS IN ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS...
COUPLED WITH ENOUGH MIXING FROM SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND
5-15 MPH... SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS
TONIGHT. HAVE REMOVED FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED OBSERVATION SITE REPORT FOG WHERE
THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR LIGHTER WINDS. WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER ALSO BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AND MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY FILL IN AND
AFFECT ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. E-SE WINDS WILL BECOME SE-S OVERNIGHT
AND SW-S EARLY SUNDAY. ADDED A GUST GROUP FOR WESTERN TAF SITES ON
SUNDAY. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY MID AFTN. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON PRETTY MUCH INDICATES THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DISSIPATED AND RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF HAS
INCREASED. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH
OF SE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT OVERNIGHT SO MAY GET MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
FOR THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 2 SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE OVER THE
ROCKIES ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE SECOND BACK OVER
THE DESERT SW. THE FIRST WAVE HAS INITIATED LEE TROUGHING WHICH
HAS INCREASED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE GULF. THIS
WAVE SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW BUT THE SECOND
WAVE SHOULD MOVE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SYNOPTIC MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS WAVE. MODELS
ALSO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF RAIN CHANCES WELL NE OF SE TX THROUGH
THE ARKLATEX TO TENN. FORECAST WILL KEEP SOME 20/30 POPS GOING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT RAIN CHANCES REALLY LOOK
MINIMAL. INSTABILITY GETS UP TO MAYBE 1000 J/KG SO COULD GET A
DECENT STORM BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS THIS WAVE
PASSES BUT MAY ONLY BRING LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY DOWN TO THE LOW 50S
OR STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES EAST WITH A
BROAD TROUGH REPLACING IT MID WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE WEST U.S.
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MID WEEK AND BUILDS OVER TEXAS BY THUR/FRI.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
BUT THE FRONT IS RATHER WEAK AND DOUBTFUL IT REACHES SE TX.
OVERALL THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
IT WILL ALSO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY.

39

MARINE...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
WEAKENED FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT (OR WAS A BIT MORE SHALLOW).
ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RESUME ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE AND ON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROD-
UCE LIGHT/BRIEF OFFSHORE WINDS ON MON WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TUE
NIGHT GIVING US A MORE EASTERLY FLOW THRU WED. NO CAUTION/ADVISORIES
FCST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  74  57  74  50 /  10  10  20  20   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  74  59  75  52 /  10  20  20  30   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            57  72  61  71  56 /  10  20  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14


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