Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 222148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Few cirrus clouds streaming in from the north in the wake of the
cold front that passed through early this morning. High pressure
will continue to build in from the NW through Thursday which will
keep offshore flow through the rest of the workweek. Expect a chilly
start to Thanksgiving with lows tonight getting down to the upper
30s to low 40s, roughly 10 degrees below climatology. High
temperatures on Thanksgiving will stay in the mid-60s with prolonged
cold air advection behind the front. With our prolonged dry spell as
of late, dry grass on the ground combined with RH values near 30
will result in enhanced fire risk for those deep frying turkeys
outside, so be sure to exercise caution in those cases.

Onshore flow will slowly return late Friday into Saturday as the
surface ridge moves offshore into the Gulf, bringing high
temperatures back into the 70s, even up to the high 70s on Saturday,
and dew points into the 50s. A weak cold front will approach the
region on Saturday night/Sunday morning, but will not provide much
relief as dew points stay in the 50s and high temperatures in the
70s through the weekend. However, the northerly flow behind the
front will continue to close us off from Gulf moisture, resulting in
a dry frontal passage as high pressure once again builds in from the
northwest.

As the high pressure progresses into the Gulf on Monday, onshore
flow will result in moisture return Tuesday. This happens just as an
additional cold front looks to approach the region midweek. Still
some uncertainty with the frontal passage, as the GFS shows a strong
cold front passing through with rain Tuesday night through
Wednesday, while the ECMWF does not show much of a front until
Thursday. 22

.MARINE...
Winds over the Gulf waters are continuing to decrease this afternoon
and seas should be following suit this evening. The Small Craft Adv-
isory in effect for the offshore waters will be allowed to expire at
00Z/6PM, but a brief SCEC may be needed for seas into the early part
of this evening. Otherwise, high pressure building across the region
will allow for generally light/moderate offshore winds tomorrow into
tomorrow night. Light onshore winds progged to develop Friday as the
high moves east/low pressure develops over North TX. Another frontal
boundary to move into the coastal waters Saturday night as moderate/
light N/NE winds develop in its wake. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      37  64  42  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              40  65  43  70  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            49  63  51  66  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...47/22


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