Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 292335
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
IN ITS WAKE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WHAT HELPED GET THINGS
GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL START
TO RETREAT AND WASH OUT TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TOMORROW WILL BE FROM DAY TIME HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.8" WHILE THE
NAM HAS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 1.6". OVERALL
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A LOW COVERAGE DAY TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY
RETREATS. STILL CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO WITH DAY TIME HEATING. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY AND PROPAGATING SOUTH. WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL MAKE THE MAIN THREAT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
METRO THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE
COMMUTE HOME. A GUST FRONT HEADING SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE 90 DEGREE
AIR INCREASES THE THREAT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA CONVECTION THROUGH 5
PM.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BACKED OFF TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVER GENTLY BACK-BUILD WEST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES UPON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TREK. A GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THE BACKGROUND IS SET FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SET-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY
PM CONVECTION. HIGH MOISTURE OF GT TWO INCH PWS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ATOP A NEARLY-NON EXISTENT WIND FIELD COURTESY A WASHED
OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES ALL OF THE QUANTATIVE
ARGUMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK AROUND TO
ONSHORE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO NE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
COAST...ONLY TO HANG IT UP AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. NPW MODELING
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THIS DIFFUSE NEAR COASTAL BOUNDARY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. INVERTED-V
PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SECONDARY THREAT WOULD BE THAT OF
ISOLATED STORM WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFFULENCE...NOR FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING...TO PLACE LIKELY
POPS IN THIS TUESDAY PACKAGE. THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA OVERCAST/RAIN WITH A WET GROUND WILL REGULATE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO THE (UPPER) 80S. 31

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND OFF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY WORK ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  97  74  93  71 /  10  20  10  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  75  95  77 /  20  30  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  87  80 /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23


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