Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
000
FXUS64 KHGX 060120
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
820 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM OVER MUCH
OF SE TEXAS TONIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD GET MIN TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

AVIATION...
MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG AT OUTLYING
TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24+ HOURS . JUST SOME
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AND RH VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO BELOW 25 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE HERE TO STAY AS 850
TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AMPLIFIES OVER EAST TEXAS. BY SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING CAP WILL
TRAP SOME MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION AND WILL LEAD TO MORE
CLOUD COVER ON MOTHERS DAY AND MIGHT YIELD SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND MIGHT CREATE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES REACHING 1.77
INCHES...CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 AND A WEAK BUT BREAKABLE CAP. JET
DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK BUT THE TROUGH AXIS AND AVAILABLE MSTR WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED WITH THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH...LOWER SOUTH IN THE MORE STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PALTRY TUE/WED AS CAPPING STRENGTHENS...
850 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 20 C AND PW VALUES LOWER TO 1.30 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TUES/WED. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN
CHANCES TUE-THU BUT MSTR LEVELS DROP AND JET DYNAMICS REMAIN WEAK
SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLT RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. 43

MARINE...
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTH PADRE COAST...ALONG WITH
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...HAS MAINTAINED A
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE OVER 1 TO 3 FOOT AVERAGE SEAS TODAY.
THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SLOWLY VEER
BREEZES AROUND TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. LOWERING WESTERN
PLAINS PRESSURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE WINDS TO
CAUTION LEVELS BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE
CAUTION...TO POSSIBLY OFFSHORE ADVISORY...WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONG DURATION MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL PULL IN AN AVERAGE 4 TO 5 FOOT NEARSHORE...
TO 5 TO 6 FOOT OFFSHORE...SWELL. MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN WELL
INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  56  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  59  84  62  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  79  69  80 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.