Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 291201
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR as the region remains under the influence of eastern
based high pressure. Early day high cloud cover from western storms
will begin to break up through the morning. A 20% prob of occurrence
for a passing shower...or isolated storm...that will likely form on
the local small scale sea-bay breezes (when early day mid-high cirrus
break) and likely be too random to mention within this package. Models
are forecasting low MVFR (or even IFR) ceilings past midnight tonight.
With the anticipated return of western Texas storm activity...a repeat
pattern of high blow off cloud cover would again thwart more widespread
low stratus/fog. Per this lower confidence...prevailed a VFR sct deck
and tempo`ed MVFR. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Shower and thunderstorm complexes early this morning are across central
and north central Texas. Lots of cloud cover from the complex to our
west is spreading across our area, but for now the majority of rain
and storms is staying to the west of our area. Despite weak upper level
ridging trying to build across our area, will continue to carry low
rain chances across Southeast Texas today and Monday. We`ll need to
keep a close eye an activity to our west, and raise rain chances if
anything edges into our area. Wetter pattern is still on track to return
to parts of Southeast Texas, beginning as early as Tuesday out west
and as early as Wednesday for the rest of the area as a series of slow
moving disturbances move across the state and help to generate periods
of showers and thunderstorms. Rising precipitable waters in combination
with increasingly favorable upper level wind patterns will have the
potential to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall, and any of this
heavy rain falling on already very wet/saturated grounds and elevated
rivers/bayous will lead to an increasing threat for flooding. Yesterday`s
models brought rains to an end by the weekend, but today`s runs are
much slower in moving everything off to the east and out of the area.
If this pattern change materializes, parts of Southeast Texas will be
under the gun for a prolonged period of rain.  42

MARINE...
The western expansion of eastern U.S. high pressure has relaxed the
onshore pressure gradient with responding southeasterlies remaining
in the 5 to 15 knot range...today`s average 3 to 4 foot seas will
lower to 2 to 3 feet over Memorial Day. Weak disturbances moving up
from Mexico atop the slow expansion of southern Gulf upper ridging
will keep slight rain and storm chances around through Memorial Day.
The approach of a western storm system its associated cold front
passage will increase late work week rain and thunderstorm chances.

Due to relatively lower onshore winds and less rough seas...rip
currents should not be overly strong. Obviously...rip currents will
still exist and swimmers are strongly discouraged to swim near
groins... jetties or within passes. Always swim with a buddy and
near a lifeguard. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      88  71  86  71  84 /  20  10  20  20  40
Houston (IAH)              87  70  86  72  86 /  20  10  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            84  76  83  77  85 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31



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