Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 232136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
336 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures will continue until a cold front moves through
Southeast Texas tomorrow. Before the front arrives and cools us back
down toward normal end of February temperatures, there will be a chance
of low cloud and fog formation (if winds diminish enough) mainly late
tonight through early tomorrow morning. Dense fog advisories might
be needed. We are looking at another warm day tomorrow (highs in the
80s again for most of the area that stays ahead of the front long enough).
Moisture levels will be too low for any shower development with the
front. Cooler weather behind the front for Friday night through Saturday
night (courtesy of a surface high ridging into our area from the northwest
and north) will not last very long. On Sunday, winds come back around
to the southeast and south as the surface high moves off to the east
and brings the area increasing clouds and low rain chances. Current
thinking has best risk for any higher shower and thunderstorm chances
north of our area Sunday night through Monday morning. Lowish rain chances
and warming temperatures remain in the forecast until the area`s next
cold front currently in the forecast to move through on Wednesday. 42
&&

.MARINE...
Southeasterly flow 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, increasing to 15
to 20 knots overnight specifically over the offshore waters. Also
expecting seas to bump up from 3 to 4 feet to 4 to 5 feet with the
increase in wind speed. Therefore, Small Craft Exercise Caution
criteria in effect for this evening beginning at 6 PM and lasting
until 7 AM Friday.

The cold front should clear the coast by late tomorrow afternoon,
leaving behind strong northwesterly winds behind the front. These
winds start to veer slightly Saturday, becoming more east to
southeasterly throughout the day. This could result in possible
caution criteria, Saturday morning into the afternoon. Expecting
seas to build to roughly 5 to 7 feet during this time period as a
result.

Tides are still running slightly above normal, by approximately a
half foot.

Hathaway

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting relative humidities to drop into the 20s for the northwest
section of our CWA Friday afternoon, with the passing of the cold
front. These drier conditions, along with stronger northwesterly
winds could result in elevated fire weather conditions.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

AVIATION...
Winds will be out of the south southeast for the remainder of the
afternoon and into the early evening. Expecting winds to pick up
in speed this afternoon, with gusty conditions up to about 20
knots across most of the terminals. Should begin to see winds drop
off as we moving into the evening hours tonight.

Early Friday morning, could see the potential for fog, similar to
how things set up this morning. Models are indicating the chance
for radiational fog beginning to lower ceilings between 09 and
14Z. Expecting conditions to drop to IFR/LIFR across most of the
terminals. Model guidance shows a better chance of fog development
in the earlier morning hours for the western half of the forecast
area and then slowly filling in to the east. Little bit of
discrepancy between the SREF and HRRR with regards to fog
development. Lowered visibilities and fog development will really
depend on whether or not the winds decouple overnight enough to
allow for the winds to lower in speed at the surface.

A cold front pushes through SE Texas beginning in the late Friday
morning for the northern portions of the forecast area. The cold
front will eventually clear the coast by early Friday evening.
Mentioned this wind shift following the front, with winds
beginning to veer towards the end of the TAF period. Behind the
front winds will be out of the NW.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      59  80  45  65  43 /   0  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)              63  84  49  69  47 /   0  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            65  75  57  67  57 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...08


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