Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SHRA MOVING BACK INTO NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TO THE WEST BETWEEN AUS AND ACT. HAVE
SEEN SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO ALREADY THIS EVENING AND STILL THINK
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AT OTHER SITES...PRIMARILY SGR
AND POINTS CXO NORTHWARD. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
EXACT TIMING OF IMPACTS TO TERMINALS REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE BEST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

..HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT FOR THURSDAY...

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS HAS SATURATED GROUNDS AND LOWERED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. SOME AREAS COULD SEE FLOODING WITH AS LITTLE AS 1-2
INCHES ESPECIALLY IF THAT MUCH FELL IN AN HOUR. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD TRACK
TOWARDS E TX AND ARKLATEX THUR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE
OVER TOP A TROPICAL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 2.2-2.4 INCHES WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY LCH/CRP 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND GOES PRECIP WATER PRODUCT. SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS
SHOW RAIN SHIELD OVER C TX MOVING INTO THE REGION THE NEXT FEW HRS
WHICH COULD DUMP LIGHT RAIN. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR SHOW FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH DAY TIME HEATING DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS.
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING
WITH STORMS PRODUCING HIGH RAIN RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HR. LATEST
00Z SHOWS A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
15Z TO 21Z WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THINK COLLEGE
STATION TO HOUSTON WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WITH AREAS TO
THE NORTH OF THAT LINE STILL UNDER THE THREAT. COASTAL AREAS HAVE
A LOWER THREAT BUT GIVEN ACCESS TO HIGH MOISTURE AND MESOSCALE
FORCING FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...NO ONE CAN BE RULED OUT OF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOOD DISCUSSION. FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
7PM CDT THURSDAY AND DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY ADJUSTMENTS.

39/38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  84  71  87  71 /  60  80  40  50  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  83  71  87  72 /  40  80  40  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  84  77  85  79 /  40  70  40  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38



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