Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 272316
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
516 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING
APPROACHING AREA TAF SITES FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH. COULD
POSSIBLY GET A TEMPORARY BREAK IN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING BUT
CONSENSUS OF FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
LEANED TOWARD A RAP13/NAM12 BLEND FOR THE TAFS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MIXING TONIGHT FROM SFC-2000 FT WINDS TO KEEP LOW CIGS AWAY. WINDS
WILL NOT DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT SO NE-E WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STILL HOLDING OUT HOPE FOR SOME BREAKS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING BUT
THE BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO
THE EAST THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE INCREASINGLY
SWLY FLOW ALOFT AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE
RETURNING AT THE LOWER/UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO KEEP CLOUDS OVER
SE TX THRU THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TEMPS WARM AND PCPN CHCS
INCREASE. POPS COULD SPIKE LATE SUN WITH THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF A COASTAL SFC LOW...AND AGAIN NEXT WEDS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. IN BETWEEN...PCPN CHCS WILL
LARGELY BE DICTATED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY VIA THE SRN
STREAM JET. PROGGED INSTABILITY FOR NEXT MON-WEDS DOES SEEM TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF ISO TSRAS. PER SOME OF THE LONG-RANGE MODELS
MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PCPN TYPE NEXT THURS FOR OUR NRN ZONES.
AS IT STANDS THIS SCENARIO IS NOT TOO FAR FETCHED GIVEN THE
EXPECTANT ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH THAT NEXT FRONT. 41

MARINE...
GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND ENE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25KT W/ HIGHER GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. BUILDING SEAS & SURF, HIGHER TIDE LEVELS
AND HEIGHTENED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME SE. ONSHORE
WINDS AGAIN INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SCHEDULED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. AS OF RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      33  53  50  68  59 /  30  40  40  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  57  52  71  63 /  20  30  40  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            44  56  56  67  62 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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