Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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281
FXUS64 KHGX 131224
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
A NEAR STATIONARY COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THE IMPETUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CEILINGS. SATURATION WITHIN THE FRONTAL LAYER LAYING BETWEEN
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES AND MID LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL CREATE BKN-OVC
MVFR DECKS FOR A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. STOUT EASTERLIES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER MORE ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET SUNDAY WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAY EXPERIENCE LATE
SUNDAY AM VCSH BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE WITHIN THIS
PACKAGE. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED DENSE FOG ADVISORY. NOW IN EFFECT (STILL THRU 9 AM) FOR JUST
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE
ARE STILL BEING REPORTED.  42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
DEW POINTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES) ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AHEAD OF IT...VALUES IN THE
LOWER 50S ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME READINGS
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE WHERE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. EXPECT THE
DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH FOG
DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME MODELS HAVE AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AREAS AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HAS
CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. EXPECT SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS
AND WARM AFTERNOONS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  42

&&

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CREATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE
MODERATE WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS...PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. RESPONDING SEAS WILL LIFT
FROM THIS MORNING`S NEAR 2 FOOT HEIGHTS TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE
MONDAY WILL INCREASE (PRIMARILY EASTERN WATER) SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. A COUPLE OF WEAK BOUNDARY PASSAGES EARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SWING WINDS TEMPORARILY OFFSHORE...RETURNING
ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  52  71  56  71 /  10  10  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  51  71  58  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  56  69  58  68 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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