Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301156
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN TO START THE TAF WILL BE VSBY AT KLBX/KSGR/KCXO AS
EACH OF THESE TERMINALS HAVE SEEN LOWER VSBY. FOG SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
WRF/HRRR MODELS HAVE WEAK SHRA DEVELOPING BUT REALLY HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND RIDGING ALOFT.

OTHER QUESTION WILL BE IF MVFR CIGS DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF SHOULD SET UP WITH 20-25KT LLJ. MODEL
MOISTURE FIELDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MVFR CIGS BUT MAY BE
OVERDONE A BIT. HAVE TIME TO NAIL DOWN THESE DETAILS WIH FUTURE
TAFS SO JUST INDICATED SCT CLOUD DECKS FOR A FEW TERMINALS. DID
INDICATE MVFR AT KCLL/KUTS/KCXO WHERE STRATUS MAY BE MORE FAVORED.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON ITS STRENGTH BUT ARE CLOSE IN TIMING. BOTH MODELS
PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SE TX THURSDAY NIGHT AND
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH EITHER
TO AROUND 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. RIGHT
NOW THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PLUS SEABREEZE ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
EACH DAY.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AROUND 7 AM ON
FRIDAY. THE 00Z RUNS CONTINUED THIS TIMING. THE QPF FIELDS FOR
BOTH MODELS PROVIDE GOOD COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW DO NOT THINK THERE WILL MUCH
OF A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
LOOK TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS REACHING ONLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THUR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS SLIGHTLY INTO FRI. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. NE WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
BUILDING SEAS. CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT. ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT LATEST
FORECASTS HAVE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE SATURDAY AND TURN BACK TO THE SE ON SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  72  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  77  91 /  20  10  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  84  79  87 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39


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