Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 311015
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A TRANSITION TO A SW FLOW ALOFT
(AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED IMPULSES). MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING AREAS WEST OF A COLLEGE
STATION-EDNA LINE LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. THOUGH ISOLATED
POPCORN SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 2 PM FURTHER EAST...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY DURING THE DAY.

BKN BAND OF SHRA SHOULD PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX
DURING THE EVNG HOURS BRINGING JUST NUISANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PAST FEW TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WX
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES INTO SE TX EARLY SUNDAY AFTN.
LOWERED POPS SOME FROM MIDNIGHT-NOON FOR MOST AREAS BUT HAVE A
FEELING THEY COULD STILL POTENTIALLY BE OVERDONE DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE DO EXPECT SCT (RE)DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CLL AREA EARLY IN THE AFTN AND EVENTUALLY FILL INTO
A LINE OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA AS IT APPROACHES THE METRO AREA
AROUND 3 PM & OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE EVNG. THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING W/ DRY COOL
WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

LATEST MODELS GUESSES KICKOUT THE CUTOFF BAJA LOW LATE MONDAY AND
TAKE IT ON A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN EARLIER RUNS. DEVELOPING
SFC COASTAL LOW WILL THEREBY ALSO TAKING A MORE NRN TRACK &
CLOSER TO THE UPPER TX COASTLINE. RESULT WOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF
RAIN FURTHER INLAND TUE/WED RATHER THAN JUST CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE. BUMPED POPS UP A TOUCH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD BUT
THEY WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING/TRACK OF UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. MAY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS NEAR THE COAST AS
DYNAMICS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO LAST THURS. AGAIN - WAY TOO FAR OUT
& THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE - BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

ONCE THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
AMPLIFY PUTTING US IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEK.  47

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
U.S. TODAY. BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT/SAT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM (ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT) PROG-
GED TO SWEEP INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT...BUT MAY BE PRECEDED
BY A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING/MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUN. THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR UNSETTLED WX/SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS STARTING LATE SAT ON INTO SUN. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THESE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORI-
ES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER
NOT GOING WITH A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME AS MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING
SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER CRITERIA...BUT NOT RULING OUT WIND GUSTS AT/OR
NEAR GALE FORCE FOR MON. WINDS/SEAS TO DECREASE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE E/SELY
WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONT PROGGED FOR THURS. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTIN-
UES TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX. SHORT-RANGE MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE
LIGHT PCPN STARTING THIS AFTN AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS FROM THE W
AND SW...BUT WILL LIKELY OPT TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT (SAVE FOR VCSH)
UNTIL LATER. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  58  65  37  49 /  40  60  60  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  58  69  41  51 /  20  50  70  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  57  64  45  50 /  20  40  50  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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