Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 020058
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BUT
WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT TO BKN
CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT
MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10
INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC WILL UPGRADE
THE WEAK WAVE TO TD #5 LATER THIS AFTN. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45



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