Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 080125
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
825 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER NEAR THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THE REST OF TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

48

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL A FEW ISOLATED CELLS AROUND SE TX...BUT SHOULD BE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT - MAYBE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS NEAR CLL LATE. OTHERWISE...A CONTINUED FCST OF PERSISTENCE
WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO BEAT. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH PULSE STORMS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHOULD SEE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWER COMING OFF THE GULF OVERNIGHT...AS OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS FAR AS COVERAGE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AIRMASS NOT AS MOIST AS TODAY AS
INDICATED BY LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE MODELS MOVING
OVER THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS DRIER AIR OFF THE
SURFACE AND A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION SO THINK TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOULD REMAIN
HOT AND HUMID ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF MIXING SOME OF THE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DOWN TO SURFACE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MEAN LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT
COVERAGE WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...MORNING AT COAST...AND
AFTERNOON INLAND...MUCH LIKE WE HAVE TODAY. NOT A WASH OUT BY ANY
MEANS. COVERAGE INHIBITED BY RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SURFACE. 46

MARINE...
THE 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER FLORIDA IS CREATING A TIGHT ENOUGH
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN RELATION TO A WESTERN PLAINS
TROUGH...TO GENERATE A MORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND. THE PRESENCE OF
A LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE WINDS AS THESE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO
THE WATER`S SURFACE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL REMAIN
UP IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE NEAR 15 KNOT GULF WINDS...
RESPONDING ELEVATED SEAS THAT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET
NEARSHORE...4 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. EASTERN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND FURTHER WEST AT WEEK`S CLOSE AND WEAKEN ONSHORE
WINDS...LOWER SEAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 31

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  93  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  94  76  92  75 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  89  80 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48



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