Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
FXUS64 KHGX 260901 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
401 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016
Southeast Texas lies on the western periphery of an upper level
ridge centered over the central Appalachians. A series of
disturbances coupled with a surge of deeper moisture will provide
the area with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms today and
through the weekend. Some of the rain could be locally heavy
especially areas along and east of the US Highway 59 corridor.
Convective temps today are between 84 and 87 degrees so not much
heating will be required to get things going. Still expecting a
break in the precip this evening before additional showers and
thunderstorms develop near the coast after 06z.
Things get a bit more muddled early Saturday through Monday. At
the upper levels, there appears to be some type of upper low or
or trough trying to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico. This
feature meanders into South Texas on Monday morning but it places
SE TX in a favorable region for additional precipitation. A
surface low will also develop by Saturday morning about 150 miles
SE of Galveston and this feature will move toward Matagorda Bay on
Sunday and then slowly drift toward the Hill County by Monday
morning. PW values will remain between 2.10 and 2.30 inches
through Monday so all the ingredients are in place for a rainy
weekend, with some of the rain being locally heavy. Have added
locally heavy rain to the grids and raised PoPs to likely for
coastal areas Sat/Sat night. Want to wait a day to see how much
rain falls near the coast today but feel a Flash Flood Watch will
be required for areas east of the 59 corridor Saturday and Sunday.
Soil moisture is high so it won`t take much in the way of heavy
rain to produce run off.
Upper level ridging tries to reassert itself over the southern
plains next week as the upper low moves W-SW. The upper high will
remain over the region through next weekend but heights only build
to around 592 DM so can`t rule out an isolated shower from time to
time. Temperatures will gradually warm back into the middle 90s by
the middle of next week. 43
The Tropical Prediction Center is continuing to monitor Invest
99L, a broad area of low pressure between the Bahamas and
northeast Cuba. Satellite imagery shows a largely disorganized
area of showers associated with this feature, with conditions not
looking favorable for development over the next 24 hours.
Conditions do look a bit more favorable early next week as the
system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Currently, there
are no forecast impacts from Invest 99L for Southeast Texas.
As a reminder, late August through early October is the
climatological peak of the hurricane season. Southeast Texans
should make sure they keep up with the forecast and hurricane
preparedness regardless of whether or not a system is in or
approaching the Gulf of Mexico.
Houston Hobby Airport received 0.05 inches of rain yesterday. This
was the 13th consecutive day with rainfall greater than 0.01
inches at this location. This is the longest consecutive string of
days with measurable rain in this locations recorded history
(records go back to 1930). This streak will likely increase as
more rain is expected through the weekend. The last day it did not
rain at Hobby Airport was August 12th.
Houston Intercontinental Airport`s August rainfall total (through the
25th) of 9.56 inches ranks as the 6th wettest August on record (dating
back to 1889). The wettest August on record was 1915 with 15.43
College Station`s August rainfall total (through the 25th) of
8.12 inches ranks as the 5th wettest August on record (dating back
to 1902). The wettest August on record was 1915 with 11.25 inches.
Light winds will continue through the weekend; however, locally
higher winds and seas will be possible in and near thunderstorms.
Current high resolution models show the potential for thunderstorms
through the weekend.
Computer models still show the potential for an area of low pressure
to enter into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. There is
still a great deal of uncertainty with regard to the movement and
intensity of this feature. Mariners are urged to keep up the latest
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 74 89 74 89 / 50 20 40 20 40
Houston (IAH) 89 75 87 74 87 / 60 30 50 40 50
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 86 79 86 / 60 30 60 60 50