Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221507
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPANDS SLOWLY WESTWARD
THAT SETX WILL UNDERGO MORE HOT WEATHER WITH NEAR NIL RAIN
CHANCES. HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105 TO 108 ARE ON TAP FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR 3-5 HOURS.
INLAND THE MIXING WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PULL DOWN THE
DEWPOINTS AND THE CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE 100-104 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AND
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SATURDAY ALONG THE COAST. WILL BE
WATCHING THE FORT BEND AND WHARTON COUNTIES CLOSELY WHERE HEAT
INDEX READINGS MAY FLIRT WITH 105. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY NOON AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY
EVENING. MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR TODAY.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST...EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MVFR IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
KCXO...KUTS...AND KCLL THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL INCH ITS WAY TOWARD
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER ARKANSAS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH DAY TO
DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SFC EACH
AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR
THE COAST. HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY SINCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FCST TO REMAIN ABOVE 105 DEGREES. A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY AND
THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE. PW VALUES BEGIN TO RISE AND INCREASE TO 1.85 INCHES BY 00Z
WED. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S ON TUES WHICH IS
REACHABLE BY LATE AFTN SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES ON WED/THU WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND
LEAVING A WEAKNESS ALOFT. THE WEAKNESS/LOWER HEIGHTS WILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. 43

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT MORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN THE EVEN THOUGH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WERE
OCCURRING...THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE STAYED BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.
MODEL DATA FORECASTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)     100  77  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45


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