Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
727 FXUS64 KHGX 301034 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 534 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible today. - Temperatures generally trend hotter as the week progresses. - Rain chances lower after today, though isolated shower/thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze boundary. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Mid/upper water vapor imagery show a clear clockwise circulation in the vicinity of Louisiana. This circulation is indicative of a mid/upper ridge that will dominate SE Texas weather through the end of the week. The ridge is expected to build as mid-level dry air increases, thanks in part to the much spoken about Saharan Dust in the mid-levels. I say "in part" because the dust signal on satellite imagery isn`t particularly strong. But there is dry air in the mid-levels working its way into the region. The atmosphere is not expected to be extremely suppressive today. Therefore, we have kept widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the forecast. That being said, Monday PoPs have trended down somewhat compared to where they were 24 hours ago. This trend can be seen through the forecast period, with daily PoPs this week dropping a solid 10 percentage points since yesterday. We could still see isolated activity along the sea breeze boundary Tuesday through the end of the week. But most areas are expected to remain dry. Regarding temperatures, expect the furnace to dial up a few notches. Afternoon inland high temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s much of this week. By the end of the week, I even see a few 100 degree pixels in our temperature grids. And of course, it wouldn`t be southeast Texas without humidity. So expect conditions to feel hotter than the thermometer suggests. One silver lining is that conditions may become breezier later in the week. In addition, afternoon dew points may mix down to lower values, helping with the humidity by Wednesday and beyond. So let`s hope for that breeze and the slightly lower humidity to help take the edge off the heat. Regardless, practicing heat safety will be a must all week. Cause even normal July heat can be quite hazardous. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 534 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A few short lived MVFR ceilings are possible once we get a little heating by mid morning, but mainly VFR conditions can be expected today/tonight. Look for some isolated-scattered afternoon storms to develop in association with datime heating and the seabreeze. Hires guidance has been somewhat consistent of showing some cells in/near the metro area in the 19-22z timeframe so will maintain the PROB30s for that period at IAH. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Monday. The enhanced swell experienced offshore on Sunday should continue to gradually decrease. The rest of the week is expected to feature light to moderate onshore winds and 2 to 4 foot seas. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze boundary near the coast during the late morning and afternoon hours. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out overnight and during the early morning hours over the Gulf. But generally speaking, rain chances are low and temperatures will be high. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 74 94 74 / 20 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 93 76 94 76 / 40 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 81 90 81 / 30 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$