Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 192106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
306 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Since I cannot take my AWIPS workstation outside in the cool
crisp fall air to enjoy, I`m left writing my discussion looking
out the window at it. But at least I have a window to look out to
see some thin cirrus moving across the sky. Satellite imagery
shows this as well and water vapor imagery showing a weak short
wave trough enhancing the cloud cover. High pressure over Texas
today will move east over the Tennessee river valley tonight. Axis
of high pressure will still support calm winds tonight. Cirrus
may be an issue for the low temperature forecast but do not think
it will be that thick enough to make an impact. Look for
temperatures Monday morning in the upper 30s to low 40s for much
of the area.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Short range models are in pretty good agreement with some weak
return flow on Monday going into Tuesday. Rain chances increase
mainly in the Gulf and just along the coast on Tuesday. Vorticity
from a trough now approaching the Pacific NW should continue its
movement around the upper level ridge and reach Texas late
Tuesday. A cold front will be moving into the area about the same
time so will keep some low end rain chances in the forecast. Best
chances of rain and higher rainfall totals should remain off the
Gulf coast. The cold front should push off the coast by Wednesday
morning with high pressure building over the Plains.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Surface high pressure should remain over the area in some shape
or fashion through the end of the week. This will allow for
temperatures to be about 5 degrees below normal for Thanksgiving.
You can be thankful we will not have any record breaking high
temperatures that day or even record high minimum temperatures.
Temperatures then push maybe 5 degrees above normal for the
holiday weekend as upper level ridge begins to expand over the
Desert SW and Southern Rockies causing 500mb height rises. Even
then, the NW flow aloft may help push a weak front through the
area next Sunday taking the edge off those slightly above normal



.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions expected. Breezy conditions will continue to
diminish through the afternoon. High pressure will then bring
light winds from the north tonight and northeast to east on




The winds have steadily diminished this afternoon. This in turn
has led to subsiding seas as well. Expect the small craft advisory
that was in effect between 20 and 60 nm offshore of the coast to
end at 4:00 PM. With the surface high pressure ridge over North
Texas expected to build into East and Southeast Texas, winds and
seas should continue to diminish. Onshore winds will return on
Monday. Still looks like a cold front will move off of the coast
late Tuesday. Caution or advisory conditions are possible behind
this front Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The low water advisory will continue through the remainder of
this afternoon. Water levels in some locations of Galveston Bay
were down to one foot below the predicted levels. With diminishing
winds, should see the water levels to begin returning to near
normal levels this evening.




Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon. Some locations have seen the relative
humidity values to drop to around 25 percent so far this
afternoon. However, wind speeds have dropped below 15 mph and many
of the driest locations were already below 10 mph. On Monday the
lowest relative humidity values should range from 35 to 40
generally north of the Interstate 10 corridor. With easterly and
then southeasterly winds developing, the elevated fire weather
threat should diminish as the afternoon progresses.




College Station (CLL)  42  67  51  74  50 /   0   0  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)          41  67  52  74  54 /   0   0  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)        55  67  61  74  60 /   0  10  10  30  20



GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
     waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for the
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
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