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000
FXUS64 KHGX 120500
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1200 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRATUS DECK FORMED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND STARTED TO
SPREAD INLAND LEAVING IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. A COLD
FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH OUT AHEAD. MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT
ACCELERATING OVERNIGHT AND MAKING IT TO COLLEGE STATION BY 8Z. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 12Z. AS THE FRONT PASSES THE IFR
AND LIFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT WITH SITES GOING VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
ARE STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE GUSTY DURING THE DAY AS 850MB WINDS
PEAK AT ~ 35KTS. NAM 12 STILL REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 850MB WINDS AROUND 25KTS. GIVEN THE ABOVE
GUSTS AROUND 30KTS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CORRECTED TYPO.

WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AREAS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE 59 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO 3
AM. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING AT A VERY GOOD CLIP AND SHOULD BE
INTO THE NW CWA AROUND 06-07Z THEN INTO THE HOUSTON AREA AROUND
09-10Z. IMPRESSIVE DUST PLUME WITH THE DRYLINE AND FOR THAT MATTER
WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE DUST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST AREAS BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. CURRENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD VEER AS THE FRONT NEARS. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON OBS
OVER THE SW WHERE A SHORT DURATION DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. WINDS INCREASE ABRUPTLY POST FROPA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND
ADVISORY STARTS AT 7 AM AND MAY NEED EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE
CURRENT ALIGNMENT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LL FLOW PER LATEST
NAM. 45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND
IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE IT TO THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FIELDS SHOWING A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SOME IFR STRATUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT
WITH THE FRONT QUICKLY SURGING SOUTH THE EVENT SHOULD BE
TRANSIENT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICKUP SPEED THANKS
TO A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONG 850MB WINDS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER-WISE...AND IN COMPARISON TO THE MANY OVERCAST AND COLD
DAYS THIS PAST WINTER...TUESDAY HAS EVOLVED INTO A VERY PLEASANT
EARLY MARCH DAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A SOUTHWEST BREEZE...A
FADING CUMULUS DECK OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS MANY WARM WELL INTO
THE 70S. TOMORROW`S WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT. A DECENT SHOT OF LOWER LEVEL COLD
AND DRY AIR AND A TIGHTENING OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE 15-25
MPH NORTHERLIES...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH...FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS. A COOLER DAY WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER AS THIS DRIER
COOLER NORTHERN AIR MASS DESCENDS TO THE COAST...HIGHER MID-LEVEL
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE ONCE THE 85H FRONT PASSES SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL ENOUGH UNDER
THIS STRONG CAA...UNDER 40%...TO MENTION THAT ANY WEDNESDAY FIRE
WEATHER ACTIVITY NEEDS TO BE MORE CLOSELY MONITORED. INDICATIONS
ARE THIS AIR MASS WILL PACK A DECENT PUNCH AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
85H TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 5 DEG C LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
TO MOST LIKELY KEEP RED FLAGS DOWN THURSDAY... BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN-LINE WITH LOW INTERIOR DEW POINT
AIR. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLED MORNING...FAR INTERIOR MID TO
UPPER 30S TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. DAYTIME
NUMBERS WILL TAKE QUITE THE HIT AS WELL...WITH TOMORROW`S TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THE AVERAGE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S DESPITE THE FULL
SUN.

SUBSEQUENT LATE WEEK DAY-TO-DAY WARMING BACK INTO THE AFTERNOON 70S
AFTER A STRING OF COOL MORNINGS IN THE 40S/50S WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN UPPER IS MODELED
TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY THAT WILL INCREASE DAYTIME
RAIN CHANCES. AS OF NOW...PROG SOUNDINGS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE AND DEPICTING MID-LEVEL CAPPING. UNLESS THE TROUGH
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...OR A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES RIGHT OVER
EASTERN TEXAS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SLIGHT SIDE. A
WEAK WEEKEND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF A
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO DRY AND COOL EARLY
WEEK CONDITIONS OFF...IN RELATION TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARMER WEEKEND.
KEEPING POPS LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC OCCURRENCES. A SAFE BET THAT MANY WILL PICK
UP LOW RAIN ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITHIN A MORE
CLOUDY AND WARM MID-MARCH WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. 31

MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS LIKELY EXCEEDING SCA CRITERIA. ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. A BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK S/WV. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHEN A BIT ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW GULF. 43

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WILL GUST
ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT IF TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FORECAST
VALUES...RH VALUES TOMORROW WILL BE LOWER THAN FORECAST. DUE TO
THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED...THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER AND THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WILL BE MUCH LESS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  49  63  37  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  56  66  40  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  60  63  48  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23