Area Forecast Discussion
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512
FXUS64 KLUB 031051
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
451 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT 24HRS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS PRESENT. NO MORNING FOG EXPECTED WITH DRY SURFACE LAYER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOW 20S AS OF 0930Z WITH SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALLUDED
LINGERING CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTTOMS OUT ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS
MORNING AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DESPITE
STEADY BUT GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TODAY.
THE COOLER AIR WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH WEST TEXAS WHILE ALSO PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT
FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO HOLD BACK AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS
WELL. WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...NO FOG
ISSUES EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE TEENS
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO ALL OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...OUR
LOCAL AREA COMES INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF MINOR SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY 36 TO 48 HOURS. EACH
OF THE DISTURBANCES BRINGS WITH IT A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION RELATIVELY MILD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY WARMING BACK TO THE 60S NEXT
WEEK.

ONE OF THE STRONGER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH WILL COME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. EARLIER MODELS SHOWED
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AS A CLOSED LOW WHICH WAS TO GIVE
US A CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF OUR MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE DISTURBANCE WILL ONLY BE A QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE. AS SUCH WE
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOCAL REGION.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE
AGAIN...WE EXPECT IT TO BE A QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE AND AS SUCH
WE ONLY EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. LIPE

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/99/99



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