Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 220852
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...
NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE PRESENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IS SET TO MOVE EWD TODAY AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT AXIS OF MOISTURE IS
TRAPPED IN THIS UA RIDGE FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU NWD TO THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THERE LATER
TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LOCALLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPER SW FLOW WITH MUCH GREATER
THICKNESSES FOR THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY THEN WE TRANSITION BACK TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE DRYLINE
NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW THAT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL MIXED AND MEAGER AMOUNTS OF CAPE
SUGGEST THAT MODEL FORECASTS MAY BE OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION
AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR SATURDAY EVENING. A LEE TROF WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS CLOSED LOW
SWINGS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TRAILING TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE AND
MIX IT EAST INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DRYLINE WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX BACK WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
APPROACH THE REGION. TUESDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A WINDY
DAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS DO
NOT HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND WITH THE CLOSED LOW SWINGING
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD
FOR A WEST TEXAS WIND EVENT. STILL...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INSIST THAT SURFACE SPEEDS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE
OPTED NOT TO GO QUITE THIS HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A WAIT AND
SEE APPROACH TO SEE HOW THE TUESDAY STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND
MOVES OUT TOWARDS OUR AREA.

BY THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST INTO THE JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST TIME FRAME...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WETTER PATTERN
DEVELOPING AND SAY LETS GO CRAZY WITH 30 TO 40 POPS IN SOME CASES.
IF I COULD TALK TO THE MODELS...I WOULD SAY U GOT THE LOOK AS A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWINGS EAST
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO TRY TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG BUT AGAIN...CONTROVERSY IS THAT THE ECMWF PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS NEVER
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER IDEA IF THE PURPLE RAIN WILL
FALL FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK/THE END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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