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000
FXUS64 KLUB 101128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SWING AROUND FROM SW TO THE W-NW TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MIGRATES EAST ACROSS WTX. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SKY
COVER WILL REMAIN AOA 20K FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION THIS FAR SOUTH. IT WILL
HOWEVER DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR CWA WITH WINDS TURNING
WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM...ALTHOUGH WE NOW THINK THAT
COOLER AIR MAY REACH THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND WE/VE CUT BACK TEMPS IN THESE AREAS ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES OR SO. TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
LUBBOCK FOR THE DATE IS 93 DEGREES...SET IN BOTH 1934 AND 1972...AND
WE EXPECT TO COME UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY TODAY. THE WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE BIT LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY IN GENERAL ALTHOUGH IT MAY
STILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN THE SW SPLNS AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD LOSE
MOMENTUM AND LIKELY STALL OUT THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT
AND SOME BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOST PART WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

LONG TERM...
TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE THINKING FOR THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND WILL BE A MUCH DAMPENED SHORT WAVE
BY THE TIME IT REACHES WEST TEXAS. THE TRENDS ARE TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH A STRONG DRY SLOT LIKELY SPREADING OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE STICKING TO THEIR GUNS
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND THE GFS THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GIVEN ITS RECENT CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...BOTH DO SHOW A
PACIFIC FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY. VERY BRIEF BUT MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY
GIVING A LIGHT FREEZE. TUESDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM MONDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE
REGION. A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY MAY BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY AT THE MOMENT FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

TUESDAY MAY BEGIN ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER WITH
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
CARVE OUT THE WESTERN US LEADING TO SEASONAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE CAPROCK FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD WITH EXPECTED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AT THE 20
FOOT LEVEL. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  46  80  48  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  79  51  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     89  48  81  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     89  49  84  54  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       90  53  83  54  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   90  51  88  53  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    91  51  85  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     90  53  80  56  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          92  53  85  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     93  56  88  58  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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