Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 141123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
523 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Light winds and VFR through the day.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018/

One more nice day across the forecast area as we remain under
northwest flow aloft before it starts to break down late in the
day. This breakdown takes places thanks to a strong low moving
down across the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this process
takes place, a strong cold front will dive south towards the
forecast area, arriving during the day Monday. Ahead of the front,
models continue to try and pull low-level moisture back across the
southern Rolling Plains but vary on how much will actually be able
to return. Better moisture will move across the region aloft,
especially in the 800-650 hPa layer which will mainly manifest in
the form of mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. Most models continue
to struggle with precipitation coverage and strength as the front
pushes across the region and now keep the bulk of any
precipitation south of the forecast area. The exception is the NAM
which does develop quite a bit of precipitation across the
southern half of the forecast area. Much of this appears to be
overdone as much of the low-level moisture will mix east ahead of
the front and we never really saturate the layer from the top
down. There is a brief window where there is some isentropic lift
behind the front but it it short-lived and with the lack of ample
moisture should keep anything more than some brief drizzle from
developing. Temperature profiles by the time this could develop
will be below freezing so freezing drizzle or perhaps a few flakes
of snow may develop but chances look to be so slim that a dry
forecast will continue.

Probably the biggest change in the models compared to 24 hours ago
is that it looks like the arctic airmass may move more in a due
southerly direction rather than more towards the southeast. This
has resulted in high temperatures on Tuesday coming in a bit
colder with all of the area staying below freezing Tuesday
afternoon. A quick moving shortwave will move towards the area on
Wednesday which may bring some increased cloud cover, and the dome
of cold air across the central U.S. remains in place until late in
the day. This has brought high temperatures down for Wednesday as
well with the region struggling to make it into the mid 30s. We
will then see a gradual warm-up through the end of the week with a
weak ridge moving across the area Friday. Highs should be in the
mid to upper 60s for Friday ahead of the next storm system that
starts to move towards the region for next weekend. The track
remains uncertain with the ECMWF keeping a more southerly track
while the GFS develops the wave into a closed low north of the
area, a track more typical for breezy to windy conditions on
Saturday. A Pacific front will push across the area helping to
bring temperatures down for the weekend but with considerable
uncertainty on how much cooling will take place. Also considerable
differences on precipitation chances with the GFS indicating a dry
patter while the ECMWF is going a bit more bullish for late in
the day. Will keep the extended forecast dry for now due to the
variability in the models both today in from their own previous
runs the last couple of days.





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