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000
FXUS64 KLUB 130542
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEARS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVER THE REGION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013/

SHORT TERM...
DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH A SUB-TROPICAL PLUME IN ADVANCE OF SLOWLY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE NEAR-TERM
SOLUTIONS ARE BOUNCING AROUND A BIT WITH HOW EFFICIENT SHOWER
PRODUCTION MAY BECOME...WITH THE LATEST TRENDS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL
SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING...THEN
BENDING MORE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
OVERALL LIFT QUALITY IS LOW...WITH THE DEEPER LIFT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OFFSET BY A POCKET OF LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LIFT DURING THE
NIGHT. FEEL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL WILL COVER THE BULK OF
THE REGION...SOMEWHAT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOW CHANCES MAY
LINGER A BIT EVEN INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER
THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENTS. OTHER THAN
THE BREEZES FRIDAY IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE ON THE CAPROCK...FRIDAY
WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY IN OVER A WEEK.  RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE SAT MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS CAA CONTINUES AND
SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HELP
TO DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S TO START THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MORE
ROBUST WARMUP BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH A SHORTWV TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE WEST COAST ACROSS W TX EARLY SAT AFTER FROPA. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY MODIFY WITH SOME AID FROM
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM ERN CO INTO
NM. MED RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEGINNING TUE AS GFS HAS A
STRONGER SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM CANADA WHICH
DISLODGES SOME MORE COOL AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS A WEAKER FRONT INTO THE
AREA. EITHER WAY WE SHOULD JUST EXPERIENCE A GLANCING BLOW SO HAVE
KEPT IMPACTS MINIMAL WITH A WIND SHIFT AND HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER TUE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER DUMP OF
COLD AIR LATE NEXT WEEK JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. WE WILL NEED TO
WATCH MOISTURE STREAMING FROM SUBTROPICS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEMS AS THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIP THIS WINTER. ANY
SUCH COMBINATION LOOKS TO OCCUR BEYOND A WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  58  21  47  21 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         31  59  23  47  21 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  59  24  46  22 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     31  60  25  48  24 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  60  23  46  24 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   32  60  26  51  25 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  61  25  47  25 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  61  26  46  25 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPUR          35  57  28  47  26 /  20  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     39  60  30  47  27 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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