Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 150758
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
258 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ODILE...CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO BKN-OVC SKY COVER AND ENDURING MOIST
LOW LEVELS /PWATS OF 1.30-1.60 INCHES/. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE
SFC...COURTESY OF YESTERDAY/S PASSING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE /AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS/...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS PER
0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WRT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY...AS IT EITHER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THUS EXITING THE FA OR THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WANE AS ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY RE-GENERATES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTN. WILL TEND TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATTER OUTCOME...AS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CAN NOT BE IGNORED. FURTHERMORE...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOK OUT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...GIVEN TEMP-DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 1-3 DEGREES C NOTED ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
SW WIND COMPONENT OCCURRING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL AT BAY /ESPECIALLY IF THIS WIND COMPONENT DOES INDEED HOLD
UP/.

FORECAST SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT/S SPEED AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ARE WHAT MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD
TIME WITH DECIPHERING. WITH THAT SAID...A BLEND OF CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NRN
ZONES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA/RETREATING
NORTH THEREAFTER. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...COUPLED WITH THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BRIEF CLOUD BREAKS DURING
THE AFTN WILL ALSO AID IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS COMING INTO
FRUITION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WILL BE TRENDING THE FORECAST WETTER AND COOLER THIS MORNING. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES STILL IN THE PICTURE TUESDAY AS HURRICANE ODILE MOVES
UP BAJA CALIFORNIA KEEPING A TAP OF RICH MOISTURE DIRECTED EASTWARD...
AS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE GULF COAST WEAKENS...
AND AS AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF A RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL SEE A HIATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4-CORNERS AND CNTL
ROCKIES AMPLIFIES HELPING DRY SOME DRIER MID LEVEL SWD... IN TURN
SHUNTING THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM ODILE SWD. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SWRN FCST AREA WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THERE.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO LACK SOME
CLARITY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN...BUT
CONSISTENCY AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE ARE PROGGED TO BE KICKED EWD AS A TROUGH COMES ONTO THE
PACIFIC COAST IN TURN MOVING THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY THEN TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW THURSDAY AND THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A WET PERIOD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THAT
TIME FRAME. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS THEN
COMING UP QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. THAT
WOULD KEEP SWLY WINDS ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT THE HURRICANE
CENTER IS EXPECTING A DEPRESSION WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO DEVELOP
INTO A NAMED STORM THAT WOULD THEN TRAVEL NWWD PARALLEL TO THE
MEXICAN COAST AND IN TURN ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA...PER
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL WHICH WOULD
HELP HEIGHTEN PRECIP CHANCES BY ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND/OR AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. STILL A LOT THAT COULD GO WRONG IN RELATION TO
RAIN CHANCES...BUT CANNOT PICK A DOWN PERIOD THIS WEEK AND HAVE
THUS INSERTED POPS INTO EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  59  78  61  81 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         80  60  78  63  83 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     80  61  77  63  81 /  20  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     80  62  76  63  78 /  20  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       80  64  76  65  79 /  20  40  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   80  63  76  63  76 /  20  40  40  30  30
BROWNFIELD    80  63  77  64  78 /  20  40  40  30  30
CHILDRESS     83  65  82  68  86 /  30  40  30  20  20
SPUR          82  65  78  65  83 /  30  40  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  67  82  68  84 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07





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