Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 191008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
508 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Taking a look at the big picture this morning, a deep low was
exiting off the east coast near DE/NJ with a new trough developing
out in the Pacific well west of the CA coast. In between, a ridge
somewhat reminiscent of summertime at a strength of 587 dam was
centered over the Plains. A weak disturbance was passing under this
ridge this morning, moving from the TX/NM border into the TX
Panhandle. This disturbance is progged to move into western OK later
today taking its jet max winds with it.

The threat for patchy fog still exists this morning on the Caprock,
but drying will occur rapidly after sunrise as winds veer more
southwesterly in response to a surface low over southeastern
CO/southwestern KS. A dryline will bisect the area by this afternoon
with RH values behind it falling into the single digits and teens.
Winds will pick up out of the west/southwest at 14-20 mph with gusts
to 25. Though temperatures will most likely break records (Lubbock
previous record: 87 and Childress: 91) and RH values will plummet,
winds look to stay tame enough that a Red Flag Warning will not be
warranted today. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be issued
for all but King, Stonewall and Kent counties.

As we head into the overnight hours, a LLJ of 30-35 KT forms after
midnight keeping surface winds elevated through the early morning

There are not too many changes for the extended as compared with
the past couple of nights. Upper level ridging will continue to
dominate our weather with an upper level storm passing well to
our north into Tuesday. However, by Wednesday, winds will veer
southwesterly as the next weather maker comes ashore the West
Coast in a split-flow fashion. The resultant southern track storm
will pass to our north late Thursday with the ECM just a bit
slower (but more consistent) than the GFS. Behind it, another
trough will approach late Saturday night.

So, until we see a cold front back-door into the area early
Wednesday, continued warm to hot conditions will persist. At
present, it appears we may have a couple of RFD type near-critical
fire weather days. Then, into Thursday, the fire weather risk
will jump substantially along with windy conditions in a classic
West Texas wind event scenario. The only real negative is the
timing of the trough axis passage during the middle of the night
early Friday morning. This would tend to taper wind speeds though
certainly not eliminate the event altogether. The other aspect of
the event will be that of convection. Guidance has trended just a
bit further south and this could lead to thunderstorms across the
Rolling Plains. That said, given the antecedent dry soil
conditions and the way these systems usually work in March, the
storms will, in all likelihood, fire east of the area. But,
there`s still a chance.




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