Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 200933
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
433 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...
The LLJ has been keeping winds elevated across much of the forecast
area this morning as expected, though this feature will move to the
east around sunrise. Winds are expected to be a bit more relaxed
today under the ridge and with a weak surface gradient. The highest
winds are expected to remain across the southeast where the surface
gradient will be slightly tighter and dryline will setup this
afternoon. Have included mention of isolated thunder this afternoon
along portions of the dryline as a weak disturbance over northwest
Mexico will be lifting across West Texas and could interact with the
dryline late this afternoon. Though CAPE values are low, surface
convergence may be just enough to cause initiation. However, the
dryline is expected to push further east today than on Sunday, so
storm initiation may end up just out of our forecast area. The big
news for today will be the heat. H850 temperatures will reach the
lower 80s under the ridge this afternoon, and combined with
southwesterly winds, surface temperatures are going to soar. A 101
year old record stands to fall at Lubbock...90 degrees set in 1916
will most likely topple. Amazingly, as hot as 98 seems for
Childress, that will not break the record set back in 1907 of 100,
and here`s hoping we do not have our first triple digit day of 2017
quite yet!

With the combination of the heat and the shifting dryline, RH values
will again plummet this afternoon to around 10 percent or below on
the Caprock...and 10 to 15 percent for all but the extreme southern
Rolling Plains. Winds, though, will not be high enough to reach Red
Flag criteria, therefore, we have chosen to issue a Rangeland
Fire Danger Statement again for Monday beginning at noon until 7
PM for the entire forecast area. Outdoor burning should be avoided
with such low RH values.

Heading into the overnight hours, we`ll see another LLJ setup across
the southeastern half of the forecast area, though it should be a
bit shorter lived than this morning. Winds will calm across much of
the area by sunrise.


.LONG TERM...
A negatively tilted ridge will rotate, pivoting over West Texas, to
become more meridional through late Wednesday.  This occurs as the
next storm system comes ashore the California coast thus resulting
in a return of southwesterly flow.  Quite nice clustering is
indicated by forecast guidance with the system ejecting to our north
on Friday.  After a short spell of being under the influence of
ridging behind the system, another low digs into the desert
southwest on Sunday and ejects just to our north (with a negative
tilt.)

In terms of sensible weather, we are still anticipating a back-door
cold front Tuesday morning.  In a new twist in the story, the NAM
breaks out widespread isentropically induced precipitation behind
the boundary early Wednesday morning.  The upglide is fairly weak
even in the NAM and will elect to keep mention of POPs out of the
official forecast at this time.  However, the front should help
highs on Tuesday see a nice break from the very warm temps seen
today and tomorrow.

The activity picks up on Thursday with breezy to windy conditions
west by mid-day along with the potential of dryline convection
Thursday evening and a risk of severe thunderstorms certain exists
with this activity.  Friday looks to be a windy day behind the
dryline as the storms continue well east of the area.  With these
winds, there are fire weather concerns both Thursday and Friday.
Some concerns exist in guidance (not the blends as they wash
things out) as to if the airmass will be sufficiently dry behind
the dryline on Friday. However, climatologically speaking, this is
usually not a factor which would keep the fire weather risks going
through the day.  If trends continue as they have, we will likely
be considering a fire weather watch for Thursday in the next day
or two. A cold front will sweep into the region Friday evening
(with more winds in its wake.) Saturday looks to hold onto the
northerly winds for much of the day but return flow will set up
out west by early evening. We could see more winds and possibility
even storms on Sunday.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

74/26



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