Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 010451
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL CALM AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP A
BIT AROUND THE 14-15Z TIME FRAME TOMORROW. HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS TO
15KT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT LBB AND PVW FOR AT LEAST FIRST PART
OF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SHORT TERM PERIOD. LEE SURFACE TROF WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN A RELATIVE SENSE COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET INCREASING TO 30-35 KNOTS OFF THE DECK
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WINDS LIKELY WILL COME UP INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE
LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONVECTION AND EVEN BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS TO A MINIMUM. MONSOON
FLOW STORMS ENHANCED BY TERRAIN WILL REMAIN NW OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS NE NM AND PERHAPS INTO THE NW PANHANDLE. TEMPS NEAR CLIMATE
NORMS AND PERSISTENCE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
NEAR 90 ON THE CAPROCK TUESDAY TO MID 90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
STUBBORN UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL WARD OFF
THE BRUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH SOME MORSELS OF THIS MAY
DRIFT E-NE AND CLIP OUR NW COUNTIES LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY MEANDERS EAST. MODELS IN RECENT DAYS HAVE
TRENDED LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS UNSETTLED SCENARIO AND AS SUCH
PRECIP CHANCES WERE SKIMMED BACK FROM FRI THRU SUN - BUT STILL
FAVORING OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES NEAREST A SURFACE TROUGH
ANCHORED IN EASTERN NM. DAY-TO-DAY THICKNESSES SHOW MINIMAL CHANGE
WITH VALUES SUPPORTING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MIN TEMPS
WERE NUDGED DOWN EACH MORNING FROM THE RATHER WARM SUPERBLEND
VALUES.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  61  91 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         62  90  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     63  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  90  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       65  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   63  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    63  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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