Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 191715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR conditions to continue through the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 212 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

Upper level ridging continues to exert its influence over the
region with drier air advecting in from the east aloft and early
morning convection now shunted to the western half of New Mexico.
This will be the theme through the remainder of the week as the
ridge remains the dominate player over West Texas. Temperatures
may edge up a few degrees more over the coming days while any
convection remains confined to the higher terrain well to our west
and the deeper moisture and sea breeze circulation much closer to
the Gulf Coast. The ridge is still forecast to gradually weaken as
it translates eastward late week. The shifting/weakening ridge
coupled with a closed low traversing southern Canada toward the
Great Lakes (by late weekend) will allow the monsoonal plume to
shift back eastward toward or over the CWA this weekend into early
next week. We could see storm chances return to spots near the
TX/NM line as early as Saturday afternoon, though the better
chances will likely hold off until Sunday and Monday. By late
Sunday or Monday we may see a frontal zone associated with the
Great Lakes system edge into the region, though whether or not it
can make it into the FA or stall too our north remains unclear and
will likely depend on how much aid it receives from convective
outflows. If the front can make it into the area it will serve as
another focus for thunderstorm development in addition to
providing modest cooling. We have maintained slight chance to
chance PoPs for most of the South Plains area Sunday and Monday,
favoring the northern zones with the highest chances. The upper
ridge may then attempt to rebuild closer to home toward the middle
of next week. If this comes to fruition it would mean a return to
dry and hotter conditions.





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