Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 211221
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
721 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.AVIATION...
Updated TAF for KPVW based on fog and lower ceiliings. Satellite
shows improving conditions to the west near the state line.
Clearing is still expected later this morning as the dry line
spreads east.  Lipe

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms over the eastern panhandle may spread southeast and
impact KCDS between 13 and 17Z. Low ceilings and areas of reduced
visibility over the region from KLBB northward this morning will
clear around 14Z to 16Z as westerly winds spread across from west
to east removing cigs at KLBB and KPVW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Vigorous short wave passing from Colorado across southern Kansas
this morning will bring thunderstorms to parts of the
panhandles. Expect the storms to remain just north of our
forecast area with the possible exception of the southeast
Panhandle including Childress. Low clouds over the northern half
of the area lifted just north of Lubbock earlier this morning.
They could possible return before mid morning but the overall
trend will be for strong westerly winds to push from west to east
across the region today. The westerly winds will lead to above
normal temperatures today and low humidity values...leading to
elevated fire weather conditions. Will issue RFD for southwestern
third of the area including Lubbock County today. However...amount
of greenness in vegetation will help diminish fire weather
concerns.

Strong cold front is expected to push south through the area late
afternoon into this evening and bring colder temperatures tonight.
Lows will likely be in the upper 30s over the southwest Panhandle
and northwest South Plains by tomorrow morning, but with continued
northerly winds overnight do not expect frost to be of concern.
Lipe

LONG TERM...
Saturday morning will see northwesterly flow aloft with a
disturbance across the central plains that will morph into a
dragging trough Saturday night.  Ridging then builds in on Sunday
and Monday which flattens to a zonal regime with embedded minor
shortwaves through Wednesday.  Into Thursday a low/shortwave digs
into the western states with southwesterly flow across the region
Thursday when the core of the system is over the Great Basin.  How
things evolve beyond then are up in the air...so to speak.

Over to sensible weather, breezy northerlies are in store for
Saturday and it`s late Saturday night before high pressure settles
in across the region allowing the winds to really diminish and
veer. For Sunday, there is a risk of frost in our northwestern
zones as light winds and temps in the 30s. Thereafter, we`ll be
back in the breezy southerly regime with the dryline slowly
pushing east. That is, until Monday night when the dryline surges
eastward and a low deepens to our northeast. A cold front may
approach from the north early Tuesday though guidance holds it up
to our north. As such, the most likely scenario appears to be
breezy westerlies Tuesday and Wednesday. We could see a weak front
approach on Thursday but given the variance in NWP on a synoptic
scale, have little confidence and will let the blends average
things out.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

04/26/04


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