Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 140658
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1258 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.AVIATION...
Continued VFR with light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Not many changes to the forecast.

The CWA will remain under northwest flow aloft for one more day.
The NW flow begins to break down Monday as a strong upper level
trough drops out of Canada and settles across the Great Lakes
region. Simultaneously a large Arctic high will drop is southward
into the central USA and towards the FA. In response to both
features a strong cold front with accompanying cold air will move
through the area mid-day Monday. The GFS continues to develop
precip. across the Rolling Plains late Monday night. Moisture
remains shallow. Soundings are showing decent midlevel moisture
late in the day Monday but the surface will be dry and very cold.
Thus, no significant accumulations are expected with any precip.
that does occur. Any precip. that does develop will likely be in
the form of freezing drizzle. Grids will continue to reflect low
POPs and QPFs due to the GFS is the only model generating precip.
over the Rolling Plains. The NAM has precip. occurring west of the
Rolling Plains and the ECMWF still has not generated any QPF for
the area.

Tuesday continues to look very cold with highs just reaching the
freezing mark area wide. A slow warming trend will begin Wednesday
and will peak Friday with high temperatures reaching the mid to
upper 60s across the CWA. Late in the week, ridging builds over
the north-central CONUS as a stream of shortwave troughs/closed
lows are sent across the region. The GFS is suggesting that the
first trough/low in the series will affect the area Thursday with
possible precip. However, the ECMWF has the track of this same
low tracking just south of the area with lesser amounts of
precip. Given that models do not agree on placement/precip.
grids will reflect what the blended models have suggested.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

93



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