Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 202352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
652 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

VFR conditions can be expected through the forecast period for all
three terminals, KLBB, KCDS and KPVW. JH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

Dry and near seasonable temperatures continue across the region
today.  12Z upper-air analysis shows the center of the high pressure
ridge remains near the central Kansas/Oklahoma border with only a
slight decrease in heights compared to the 00Z data.  Surface wind
has been backing through the day and now is mostly out of the south
to southeast across the South Plains and Rolling Plains.  This has
helped to keep a bit of low-level moisture across the region
although the Cu field is not as well developed compared to this time
yesterday.  Temperatures are about the same as 24 hours ago across
the Rolling Plains while the Caprock is anywhere from 2 to 4 degrees
warmer than yesterday.

Models have little change in the surface conditions and keep the
ridge pretty much in the same place over the next 24 hours.  There
are a few very subtle changes in height/thickness values for the
forecast area so do not expect much difference in the forecast
tomorrow compared to today.  Went with persistence/this morning`s
low temperatures for tomorrow morning due to little change in the
atmosphere and highs a degree warmer than blended guidance since
this seems to be performing the best over the last week.  No chance
for rain so zero PoPs through tomorrow.


Stagnant high pressure over the southern Great Plains will
relinquish control through the weekend as it flattens and
migrates into the Desert Southwest. After max temps peak on
Saturday under southwest winds at 700 mb, thicknesses will
lower and PWATs are shown to increase another 1/4 to 1/3 inch in
response to southeasterly winds from the surface to 700 mb.
Although a cold front should wash out well north of I-40 on Sunday,
a few ripples could easily pivot around the periphery of the ridge
to our west and serve to bolster storm chances from late Sunday
through midweek. Even without these enhancements, GFS soundings
indicate daily opportunities for at least spotty storms given
achievable CCL heights with weak CAPE, so low-end PoPs were
expanded in coverage Monday through Wednesday.

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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