Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 280340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1040 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE. MODEST INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT
SHOWERS IMPACTING TAF SITES REMAIN UNLIKELY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
TREND MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AND DAYTIME
SUNDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SPRAWLING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENTS DEVELOPING. A SLIGHT RISK FOR AN MVFR CLOUD
LAYER EARLY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN HONE IN ON THIS BETTER
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS WEST TEXAS
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST
AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY MID/UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. ONE WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NEW MEXICO...BUT WILL LARGELY BE DIRECTED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...DRIER SINKING MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WAS HELPING TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND INCREASE INHIBITION. THIS WAS ALSO LARGELY KEEPING A
LID ON DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LOCALLY...THOUGH DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WAS RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD CUMULUS
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS GREATER ALONG
YESTERDAY/S FRONT NOW LOCATED WELL TO OUR SOUTH SCATTERED STORMS
WERE UNDERWAY AS OF 19Z...THOUGH THEY WERE BEING STEERED FURTHER
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS ALREADY GOING
STRONG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BUT IT
WILL BE DIRECTED MORE SOUTHWARD MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAKE IT INTO
THE CWA THIS EVENING. STILL...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE TX/NM
LINE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO INITIATE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IF THIS HAPPENS THEY WOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT OF AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER THIS
EVENING AS A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TAKES SHAPE. ALL
SAID...THERE ARE A LOT OF IFS MEANING THE OVERALL SHOT OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK THOUGH WE
HAVE MAINTAINED MINIMAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

TOMORROW WILL BRING MORE OF THE SAME...THOUGH WINDS WILL SWING BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SPUR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A ROGUE SHOWER
OR STORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT MOST NWP ARE DRY
THROUGH 00Z AND ONLY SUPPORT POPS GENERALLY AOB 10 PERCENT. STORM
CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS A 60+ KT
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDES A LITTLE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

LONG TERM...
STORM ACTIVITY ONGOING MONDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFT
MIDNIGHT AS COLD POOL DOMINATED CONVECTION WORKS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA SUPPORTED BY 30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
THEN COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NE
AS LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BROADENS TO THE SE
ACROSS W AND N TX THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
AXIS SWINGING AWAY. MORE NRLY THEN NWRLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS
FURTHER W IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING THE
RIDGE AND SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. WE LEFT
POPS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES WHICH
COULD ALSO ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA. IN
ANY REGARD HEALTHY THETA-E AIR SHOULD EITHER REMAIN IN PLACE OR
IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY ACROSS THE PNHDL AND NE NM TO SUPPORT
DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WOULD BE DIRECTED TOWARD
THE AREA.

CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE COOLER BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH
IS ON THE COOL SIDE OR LOWER THAN THE COOLEST GFS MOS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. SOME DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO WORK INTO THE AREA UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE AXIS TUE/WED WHICH SHOULD MAKE THOSE THE WARMEST/SUNNIEST
DAYS OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  90  65  90 /  20  10  20  30
TULIA         63  89  66  90 /  10  10  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  88  66  90 /  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     66  90  68  91 /  10  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  89  69  92 /  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   65  89  66  91 /  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  90  68  92 /  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     68  93  70  95 /   0   0  20  30
SPUR          67  89  68  92 /  10   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     67  93  70  96 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/06



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