Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 182050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
350 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Main weather-maker today has made it to near the San Juan
Mountains from which it should eject out into the central Plains
by Saturday and into Ontario by Monday. Southwesterly flow should
persists through Sunday when things become more zonally oriented
on their way to a bit more northwesterly into Monday. A trough
axis will rotate around the parent low approaching Monday
afternoon with a second and stronger trough following on Tuesday.
Thereafter, it appears that ridging will edge into the area.

Thunderstorms have fired perhaps about 30 miles further west than
originally anticipated yesterday though severe coverage was
covered well in prior forecast as a storm intensified over King
county. The activity should move off to, and remain east during
the afternoon and evening. A jet streak is evident on WV imagery
across SRN NM/AZ which should make its way to the Rolling Plains
late this afternoon. Late tonight, as has been the case for a few
days now, NWP suggests the potential for convection to re-fire
along the retreating dryline out in the Rolling Plains. A
disturbance is also evident on WV across the Sierra Nevada which
may be a source of enhancement tonight. This activity may persist
until a few hours after sunrise as it moves east. We`ll see a
return of breezy conditions west of the dryline (particularly
across the S. Plains/ SW Panhandle. Given the fuel states, the
amount of green-up evident across the region to keep fire weather
concerns low. Tomorrow afternoon, the thunderstorm risk looks to
remain confined to the eastern Rolling Plains up into the SE
Panhandle similar to today. East of the dryline, severe storms
will be possible once again during the afternoon in a very
unstable airmass. Large hail and downburst winds should be the
primary threat though a tornado may be possible.

By late Friday afternoon, a cold front should move into the region
from the Panhandle thus shunting moisture well to our southeast. The
progress of the front is just a bit less as it doesn`t quite make
the upper Texas coast.  The boundary will serve as a focus for
thunderstorm activity to our east and south into Sunday.  The GFS
wants to rapidly bring moisture back across ERN NM through it
appears to be over-doing things as is a typical bias of that model.

Monday afternoon into Tuesday becomes quite uncertain on
precipitation chances.  Northwest flow storms could become
established over NE NM Monday afternoon moving SE.  The next cold
front comes by sunrise Tuesday.  The GFS fires convection along the
front which RARELY happens out here and so will taper pops from the
blends.  Instead, storms should fire across the Permian Basin and
points east.  With low level moisture scoured out all the way to the
Gulf things should remain dry.




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