423
FXUS64 KLUB 240406
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1106 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1053 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

 - Thunderstorm chances near the TX/NM border every afternoon and
   evening through Thursday.

 - Drier and hotter conditions are expected by the end of this
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

To begin the period, flow across the CWA will be characterized by a
nearly unidirectional southerly flow due to a coupling of a broad
upper-level trough centered over the Great Basin to the west and a
strong high pressure over the eastern CONUS. Initially, the 850mb
southerly winds will advect higher RH values resulting in a stratus
deck during the morning hours over the caprock.

As the day progresses into the afternoon, a perturbation rounding
the southwestern periphery of the High pressure will usher in a
pocket of relatively drier air into areas of the Rolling Plains and
far southern Texas panhandle. In the afternoon, a boundary will set
up on the caprock with drier air to the south and moist air to the
north will set up in the afternoon, storm chances are higher to the
north and west of this boundary closer to the New Mexico border, and
lower to the south and east of it. Due to the drier air, instability
values are significantly lower around 500 J/kg, and with little to
no bulk shear present(<20kts), any storms that do form are not
expected to be severe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The extended forecast remains on track with dryer conditions by the
end of the week and hot temperatures through the weekend.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue as the Texas Panhandle sits
between an upper ridge to the east and upper trough to the west. A
sub-tropical moisture plume with the flow aloft will keep shower and
thunderstorm chances going for the afternoon and evening of
Wednesday and Thursday. However, the ridge will build westward
prompting subsidence over most of our region keeping the bulk of the
storms in New Mexico. The greatest storm chances for both Wednesday
and Thursday for the CWA will be over the far southern Texas
Panhandle and western portions of the South Plains for thunderstorms
that develop in New Mexico and track east into our region. Any
thunderstorms that do develop are expected to be sub-severe except
for some isolated severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall. The upper
trough will gradually deamplify the latter half of the week as the
upper ridge shifts over most of the region effectively bringing
convective chances to near zero for Friday and Saturday.
Convective chances return the beginning of next week as the upper
ridge shifts east again and the weakening upper trough moves over
the Central Plains. Temperatures remain hot through the weekend
with highs in the 90s with some areas off the Caprock possibly
reaching triple digits by the weekend. Winds will finally diminish
Wednesday giving us a much needed break after a breezy few days
the first half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Prevailing thunderstorms will impact the LBB & PVW terminals, with
storms gradually diminishing into the overnight hours. Guidance
suggests the formation of a VFR stratus deck overnight before
burning off late morning across the caprock, though there is
uncertainty with north and eastward expanse and resultant impact
for CDS.

Tomorrow afternoon will provide another day of pop-up thunderstorms
for the area, though confidence in placement is low at this time.

KL

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26