Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 271725
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM AN EASTERLY PERSUASION TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE IS NOW SITUATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA WITH A WEAK POSITIVE PV ANOMALY AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. GIVEN THIS SLOWLY
EVOLVING FORCING REGIME...THESE TWO AREAS...TO OUR SOUTH AND TO
OUR WEST....WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS ILLUSTRATED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...DRIER SUBSIDENT AIR IS ALSO ADVANCING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE AREA AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AND INCREASE
CAPPING WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
FURTHER WESTWARD...RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY /IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/ AND FORCING COULD STILL YIELD A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED
SHOULD THEY DEVELOP AT ALL. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS WITH A MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FRIDAY/S FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY ON LINE WITH THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPSLOPE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME DEVELOPS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. STEERING FLOW REMAINS TOO NORTHERLY
TO BRING MUCH IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE LONE STAR STATE...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REMAIN TO
SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE BEST TOPOGRAPHIC LIFTING INFLUENCE.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGING AND A WESTWARD SHIFTING THETA-E MAXIMUM.
CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL AGAIN TRY
TO MEANDER INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT FLOW ALOFT MAY ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT TOO MUCH OF
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OWING TO CORE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
ANCHORED ACROSS UTAH. DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE...A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BELOW H50 WILL KEEP ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BENIGN AND LOW-
TOPPED IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. A ROGUE WIND GUST TO 40-50 MPH WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS INDICATING A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS SOUTHERLY AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF OUR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH 240 HOURS.  THE INFLUENCE OF COURSE IS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
INTERACTION WITH THE JET WHICH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY.  MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A BIT OF A GYRATION OCCURS WITH THE
HIGH THUS VEERING THE FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY
AND THENCE NORTHEASTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY.  AFTER A BIT OF A
REORGANIZATION OF THE HIGH...THURSDAY SEES A BACKING OF THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN WHICH PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO
OUR NORTHEAST THE FIRST OF WHICH WHICH WILL TRAVERSE ON MONDAY A
SECOND DISTURBANCE PASSES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER TROUGHS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

INSOFAR AS TANGIBLE EFFECTS ON OUR WEATHER...THINGS LOOK A BIT MORE
MUDDIED THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MOST GUIDANCE HINTING AT A DRY SUNDAY
THOUGH THE NAM...WHICH HAS DONE ABOUT THE BEST JOB OUT OF THE BUNCH
TODAY...GIVES ISO T CHANCES IN THE SERN PANHANDLE WITH OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE GFS ALSO CATCHES
THIS TREND WHICH IS COMPLETELY IGNORED BY THE EURO.  GIVEN THE
TENDENCY TOWARD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS OF LATE...AM INCLINED TO
MAINTAIN LOW END POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO ACCOMMODATE THIS TREND.
INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ACROSS NERN NM ALONG A BACK
DOOR FRONT WHICH CONCEIVABLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THANKS TO COLD POOL
PROCESSES. GIVEN MODEL ACCURACY ON THE FRONT LAST
EVENING...CONFIDENCE IN NAILING DOWN EXACTLY WHEN OR WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY IS PRETTY LOW.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHEASTERLY.  DETAILS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEAK ARE QUITE
NEBULOUS.  WEAK FLOW REGIMES GENERALLY CALL FOR PERSISTENCE
FORECASTS AS THE BEST BET BUT WILL ROLL WITH THE BLENDER FOR THE
TIME BEING AND TREND CLIMO AS APPROPRIATE.  WEAK FLOW REGIMES ARE
ALWAYS A CHALLENGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  89  64  89 /  20  10  20  30
TULIA         65  88  65  91 /  20  10  20  30
PLAINVIEW     65  87  66  89 /  20  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     65  88  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       66  88  68  92 /  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   64  88  65  90 /  20  10  20  30
BROWNFIELD    65  88  67  91 /  20  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  92  69  96 /   0   0  20  20
SPUR          65  88  67  92 /   0   0  20  20
ASPERMONT     65  91  70  96 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/24/23


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