Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 101740
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1140 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. A weak cold
front will pass through KCDS, bringing light north winds which
will turn to east and then south. KLBB and KPVW will remain
westerly, then becoming south this evening. Winds at all
terminals will turn southwest on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/

UPDATE...
VFR next 24 hours. Breezy conditions this morning will see a bit
of a reprieve as an upper level storm system moves away. However,
SSW winds are expected to increase tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/

SHORT TERM...
The shortwave responsible for a the breezy conditions and a broken
line of precipitation extending from northern OK to Del Rio will
move into the Ohio Valley today with (as you may have guessed) zonal
flow in its wake.  Another trough will swing through the southern
Canadian Prairies while another PAC NW low starts to take shape
which you will read about in the extended discussion.

In terms of sensible weather, we`ll see temps cool about 10 degree
from yesterday`s record level.  Breezy winds will slowly diminish as
the pressure gradient relaxes into this afternoon only to increase
to the 10-15 mph range out of the SSW overnight ahead of
Wednesday.

LONG TERM...
Wednesday continues the stretch of warm temps and breezy west/southwest
winds across the region. Temps will be in the low to mid 70s on
the Caprock and warmer to the east off the Caprock, to near 80.
Overnight lows Wednesday into Thursday will remain above normal as
well, as cloud cover converges over the region. Low clouds work
their way toward West Texas from Central Texas as low level moisture
increases out ahead of the next system to our west, and high
clouds from the that system begin to work eastward.

By early Thursday, surface winds begin to back with an easterly
component as a weak back door cold front pushes southwest from
Oklahoma beginning Thursday afternoon arriving in southeast New
Mexico by early Friday morning. Isentropic lift working over
moistening boundary layer brings first sign of rain/freezing rain across
the Rolling Plains Friday morning while gradually working westward
across the entire CWA by Friday afternoon. The upper level low
meanwhile moves onshore from the Pacific across northern Mexico
overnight Friday into Saturday, though potent, doesn`t deepen much
as it shifts from old Mexico into New Mexico by early Sunday and
into Colorado by Sunday night as the surface front sweeps through
later Sunday into early Monday.

Saturday looks to be pretty messy across our region as 50-60kt
jet wrapping around the base of the low dissects New Mexico and
large swath of upper level divergence spreads eastward across the
South Plains, Rolling Plains and Texas Pan Handle. Temperatures
will hover around freezing across the central South Plains for
much of the day, while temps will be slight cooler as head north
and slightly warmer to the south in our CWA. Difficult to nail
down details of precip mode at this point. Best chance for
impactful frozen precip increases from Lubbock north into the
southern Texas Panhandle throughout the event. By late Saturday,
precip intensifies across eastern New Mexico as the closed low
pushes northeast and a strong surface front pushes east across our
area beginning Sunday morning and to the east through the Rolling
Plains by Sunday evening. The ECMWF dries us out quickly behind
the front while the GFS draws more cold air on the backside of the
low, producing snowfall across the Texas Panhandle that tries to
work far enough south into our northern zones early Monday.
Ultimately though, relied mostly on the ECMWF as the GFS seems too
warm through the entirety of the event, at times 10-15 degrees
warmer at the surface than the Euro. If the warming trend
continues and the ECMWF begins to indicate warming temps we may
see all rain, so there is still uncertainty in the overall chance
of any frozen precip whether it be in small pockets or area wide.
Beyond the weekend into next week temps will moderate somewhat as
upper level ridging slowly moves east by midweek with dry
northwest flow aloft for the latter part of next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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