Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 141114 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE HEADLINES.
SPECIFICALLY...WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY ABOUT
AN HOUR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES ON THE
CAPROCK...ASIDE FROM GARZA COUNTY.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...
THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS ARE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
MAY OCCASIONALLY EDGE INTO LOW-END WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...THIS
SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE AND THUS WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF TIME. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THIS WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. AFTER MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
EXPERIENCED HIGHS IN THE 80S YESTERDAY...LAST NIGHT/S STRONG COLD
FRONT HAS OPENED THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO POUR INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS ON STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS OF 08Z...THE COLD FRONT
WAS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH...CUTTING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE STRETCHED FROM MORTON TO
SILVERTON...BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EVEN POSSIBLE IN LUBBOCK.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER DURATION SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS FOR THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WERE COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...AND THIS WAS
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
20S COMMON ELSEWHERE. DEFINITELY A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. THESE
WINDS WERE FLIRTING WITH AND OCCASIONALLY EDGING INTO LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...SO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY
TEMPORARILY EDGE ABOVE THE 30 MPH THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IF THEY CONTINUE AS EXPECTED WE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS TURNING THE CORNER
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL HEAD
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS JUST
GRAZING THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES EARLY THIS AM. SO
FAR...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN GRASSY
AREAS...WITH WET ROADWAYS. THIS LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE TOO BEFORE DIMINISHING...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE PAST
12Z /WITH RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE A SLIGHTLY WARMER/. THUS...WE DID CONTINUE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE 12-15Z
TIMEFRAME...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TO
NIL...BUT LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THEY
SHOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT. EVEN WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN...CONTINUE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP IT FROM WARMING
MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK...WITH A
FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OUT EAST.

THE WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH IN EARNEST THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A
CHILLY START TO THE NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A GREAT COMBINATION FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT. MOST...IF
NOT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES...WHERE THEY HAVE YET TO REACH THE START
OF THEIR AVERAGE GROWING SEASON.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A CHILLY START TUESDAY MORNING...AND GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS
FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE...WE/LL START A WARMING TREND AS SWERLY
WINDS RESUME UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK IN THE 60S TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. A PERSIST ANT DRY AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS IT DROPS SEWD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW
SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CWA...BUT A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE THIS MOISTURE BACK OUT.
OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH IN THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND MAYBE ONLY 50S IN THE
NORTH DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND COULD
PRODUCE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...ANOTHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN CALI AND BAJA REGION...INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER
WTX. DESPITE THIS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY FLAT ON FRIDAY
WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS TX. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS WTX THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING/WEAKENING. ONE
QUESTION OF IMPORT IS HOW MUCH LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WE CAN
ACHIEVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
BULLISH WITH THE RETURN THAN THE GFS AND HAS HIGHER FORECAST QPF
TOTALS IN THE SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WE
HAVE KEPT POPS AT A SLIGHT CHANCES LEVEL FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WE DID
EXTEND THEM IN TIME. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE TROUGH MAY RELOAD BACK TO OUR SW AND PERHAPS SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  22  64  38  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  22  64  37  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  24  63  37  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  26  65  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  26  64  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  27  64  36  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  27  64  35  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  28  67  39  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  29  65  38  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  30  66  38  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ028>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

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