Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 191121
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
621 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.AVIATION...
Low ceilings will continue to plague the terminals this morning and
tonight. However, some improvement is expected during the
afternoon hours. A return to VFR is not certain, but we have
indicated it at PVW and KLBB around 17 UTC. Isolated -SHRA and
-TSRA across the area are not expected to have much impact at the
terminals. Ceilings are expected to lower again tonight - mainly
into IFR range - and patchy fog may reduce surface visibility as
well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A weakening linear complex of t-storms is exiting the Rolling Plains
as of 3 am after producing a widespread quarter to three-quarters of
an inch of rain, and a couple pockets of about 1 inch. Water vapor
imagery shows subsidence drying back to the southwest in the wake of
the lifting shortwave along with a dearth of shower activity,
although some shower activity in the northern Permian Basin may
sneak into the southern Rolling Plains in the next hour or two. The
base of the upper trough is near the New Mexico bootheel early this
morning. It will track east-northeast across West Texas today
however large-scale ascent is progged to be minimal and deep-layer
moisture will be on the decrease. And of course instability will be
lacking due to the cool temps. So, we are not expecting a whole lot
in the way of shower and t-storm activity across the area. The best
chances will likely be found in the southern Rolling Plains where
they will have deeper moisture to work with, and in the southwest
Texas Panhandle where they will have the best lift to work with. The
low-level winds will gradually come around to the south and we
expect the overcast to thin out through the day, with even some
partial clearing in the afternoon or early evening. This should help
temps warm at least a few degrees, with high temps this afternoon
mainly in the 60s. Any lingering shower activity should diminish
this evening. Depending on how much clearing we get across the area,
some patchy fog is likely to develop with the moist ground.
Overnight lows should be mainly in the 50s.

LONG TERM...
The long term forecast continues to call for an active dryline
pattern although the amount of area affected early next week looks
to be small.

A deep upper level trough digging into the west coast on Friday
will start to draw copious amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture
into the region. A dryline will already form on Friday afternoon.
However, short wave ridging overhead will likely suppress any
convection that attempts to develop. After retreating that
evening, the dryline will not likely move far east on Saturday
with the upper level trough not much farther inland. Models are
still somewhat mixed on their solutions for convective
development but anything that does develop will have the potential
to become severe. The dryline will be able to mix farther east on
Sunday with stronger westerly winds aloft spreading over the
region. Increased convergence along the dryline on Sunday will
lead to a stronger threat for convective activity as indicated by
model solutions. Dryline convergence may be supplemented on
Sunday by a strong jet streak nosing into far West Texas late in
the day. A progressive but southwesterly flow aloft will allow for
a classic sloshing dryline pattern beyond Sunday. This may lead to
thunderstorm activity each afternoon next week but off the caprock
with a eastward mixing dryline under stronger westerlies aloft.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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