Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 170528
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms currently affecting CDS will continue to affect the
terminal through at least the next hour. Given the presence of
convection wind direction will be erratic and wind speeds will be
varied but gusty. Thunderstorms have started to diminish at PVW
and are giving way to light rain showers. The development of at
least light fog is possible overnight at terminals that received
rainfall. How low visibilities will drop is uncertain at the
moment given dewpoints have dropped. Any fog that does develop
should be cleared by 15-16Z at all terminals with VFR conditions
prevailing.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

SHORT TERM...
There are a few more things going for convective development for
this afternoon and evening. Although, a variety of solutions
presented by models have not inspired confidence in the convective
forecast for the rest of today.

A weak short wave was currently moving overhead with another moving
out of northern Mexico into southwestern Texas. This had already led
to development of storms in the extreme southwestern part of the
state. Upper level winds will continue to back in advance of this
short wave. The southward advancing cold front has stalled or nearly
stalled out bisecting the region from northeast through southwest.
In response, surface winds have been backing to the southeast of the
front. Although wind speeds are light, this has led to better low
level convergence than seen in recent days. Mixed layer CAPEs are
already pushing over 4000 J/kg with minimal capping in some spots.
The cap will further erode over much of the area off the caprock by
late afternoon. A low level theta-e axis has formed to the south of
Lubbock which may lend some credibility to the NSSL-WRF forecast of
developing convection in the southwestern South Plains. Deep layer
shear is still relatively weak with wind vectors only about 25-30kt
but this was enough to obtain strongly rotating storms a couple of
nights ago. Given surface dew points from the lower to mid 60s, LCLs
will also be relatively low. Low level helicities will increase
towards 00Z briefly increasing a tornado threat. Furthermore, slow
moving storms especially right movers will contribute to a flooding
threat. By late tonight, models have been fairly consistent in
dropping a complex of storms southward out of the eastern Panhandle
into the Childress area.

Convection will again be possible on Monday afternoon although
chances are less than today under broad southeasterly low level
flow. Convection chances are still highly uncertain given weak
ridging building in overhead. However, the atmosphere will remain
very unstable during the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM...
A subtle shortwave trough passing across the area Monday evening,
may be able to support linger t-storm activity through the
evening hours, slowly progressing into the Rolling Plains.
Shortwave ridging, albeit not very strong, will build in from the
southwest Tuesday, and should keep the atmosphere capped. Flow
aloft turns westerly Wednesday as the next trough moves out of the
Rockies and over the central and northern high plains. It looks
like the dryline will be driven eastward by the westerly flow,
leading to warm and dry conditions across most of the forecast
area, with highs around 90. The dryline may hold up in the
southern Rolling Plains, but even in that area we expect the cap
to hold.

By Thursday, we still anticipate a cold front to be moving through
northwest Texas while the next upper trough approaches from the
west. At this time, it appears that the frontal zone will be in or
near to the forecast area setting up a isentropic upglide pattern
late Thursday into early Friday. Morning guidance continues to
suggest the preferred focus for coupled ascent will be located
across northern portions of the South Plains into the southern
Texas Panhandle, so our PoPs still favor our northern counties. A
stronger front should push through the area Friday night into
Saturday morning as a more energetic upper-level storm moves
southeast from the Rockies and deepens in the central plains.
There may be a window for precip chances along the front during
this period, mainly in the Rolling Plains where the front
intersects deeper moisture. Cooler temperatures for Saturday in
the wake of the front.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

51/99/99



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