Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 201719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Continued vfr with a modest surface low pressure trough generating
surface flow either side of due south. Upper level high pressure
ridge will remain just east of the area. A low level jet of 30+
knots will develop this evening mainly just north and west of KPVW
and KLBB. Moisture in the afternoon mixed environment could lead
to a few 6000 foot cumulus clouds, but this is not a given. Some
increase in high clouds very possible Wednesday as a weak impulse
ejects just west and northwest of the area into the central high
plains. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/

VFR conditions through the period with upper level high pressure

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/

Upper level ridging will remain over the forecast area today with
the center shifting just a bit to the east. There is quite a bit of
cirrus to the west of the region, but the ridge should block most of
it, shifting it northward instead. Thus, little effect from the high
cloud is expected. Southwest low level flow during the morning will
help kickstart temperatures again before the flow backs to south
this afternoon. Progged thicknesses show a slight downward trend of
a magnitude that would suggest a 1-3 degree decrease from
yesterday`s highs. That still puts forecast highs on the warmer side
of MOS. A forecast near MOS looks reasonable for overnight lows.

The upper level high will begin to flatten on Wed and be pushed
eastward by Fri as a deep upper level low digs southward from
British Columbia. Continuous southeasterly surface flow will ensure
that surface moisture stays in place ahead of the approaching low
and cold front. Models have been in a somewhat decent agreement with
the evolution of the upper low, that is up until now. The ECMWF has
departed from the GFS and Canadian by keeping the closed low
northward across the Dakotas while extending a highly amplified trof
with much less energy than the previously forecasted low. While not
too completely different than the GFS, the GFS keeps the low closed
and to our southwest for most of the forecast period. Either
solution, however, still brings decent chances for rain and cooler
temps. Due to the changing model solutions PoPs will be kept below
the likely category on Sat and Sun, but they have been bumped up to
the high chance category. Temps were brought just a couple degrees
cooler than guidance as continuous CAA and cloud cover will be in
place. A mention of thunder has been kept in the forecast until late
Sun as elevated CAPE is progged to stay put ahead of the low.

The forecast for early to mid next week is even more uncertain given
the changing pattern. The GFS keeps the low to our southwest
allowing continued chances for rain while the ECMWF keeps the low
mainly to our north and east. For now temps have been kept on the
cooler side, but PoPs have been lowered from guidance into the
slight chance category.



.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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