Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 180427

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1127 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

Cold front passage still on track very similar to times adjusted
to previously. 10 meter (i.e. Surface) winds will turn all the way
to the east by late tomorrow, but should remain light. Added a TAF
change group more for the reduction in wind speed than change in
direction late tomorrow. VFR and dry otherwise overnight and
through Tuesday. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016/

Dry and VFR will continue. A surface low pressure trough across
the Texas Panhandle and South Plains will move east this evening,
and a modest cold front will move southward across the area early
Tuesday morning. Gusty southwest winds will diminish quickly early
this evening. Latest trends support a slightly earlier cold front
passage, and we have adjusted to faster passage by a couple hours.
Surface flow will turn more northeasterly to easterly on Tuesday
but with wind speeds slowly dropping. May address this in a future
change group, but is unnecessary for now. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016/

Temperatures are soaring once again this afternoon as dry southwest
breezes have spread across the area. Lubbock`s temperature of 91
degrees at 2 pm is two degrees shy of tying the record for the date.
Also at 2 pm, shallow moisture was hanging on across the southeast
Rolling Plains - however the atmosphere will remain firmly capped in
the subsident regime to the south of a strong upper-level jet moving
across the southern Rockies and out into the high plains. A
shortwave passing through Montana and Wyoming will help drive a
cold front currently in eastern Colorado southward. The front
should move into our northern counties shortly after midnight, and
likely clear our southern counties around daybreak. This front
will bring a short period of breezy N-NE winds, and provide about
10 to 15 degrees of cooling, taking Tuesday`s high temperatures
back down to more seasonable 70s and 80s.

The next cold front will follow quickly on the heels of Tuesday`s
front, with current projections bringing it through during the day
Wednesday. Obviously the timing will be crucial for forecast highs,
but a decent gradient from lower 70s northwest to mid-80s southeast
seem reasonable currently. This front may spark scattered storms
Wednesday evening when it encounters the better moisture, though
unless the front is behind schedule, it looks like this would
probably be off to the south and southeast of the CWA. Cool
northerly winds will continue to blow on Thursday as surface ridging
builds in from the northwest. This will help secure a short stretch
of below average temperatures with highs only in the 60s and lower
70s. The coldest night of the extended should follow as the center
of the surface ridge settles nearby and provides light winds, dry
air and clear skies. Lows will be well down into the 40s and some
spots may dip down into the 30s, particularly north and west of
Lubbock where a frost could even occur. Upper ridging is then
progged to build over from the west and when coupled with a return
to southerly breezes on the back side of the departing surface
ridge, temperatures will jump back above average by next weekend.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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