Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 301733
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1133 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Continued VFR with clear skies. Modest west to southwest breezes
expected this afternoon at KPVW and KLBB as a surface low pressure
trough gradually develops. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 526 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR through the cycle. Primary concern will be gusty winds at KPVW
and KLBB this afternoon as high pressure scoots by to our south
and lee troughing strengthens across eastern NM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Respectable upper level low which brought Tuesday`s cold front will
continue to gyrate out of the northern plains into the Great Lakes
today. The influences of a trailing trough are evident on WV imagery
this morning with a somewhat complex signature.  Anticyclonic
curvature puts us in the subsident region of the jetmax early this
morning with 130+ kt H3 winds just to our south.  Over the next 24
hours, the flow regime will become zonal as the upper level gradient
relaxes.

Despite all the dynamics, we`re on the subsident side of things
leaving little in the way of sensible weather impacts for West
Texas other than a breezy afternoon out west thanks to the
deepening lee trough. A surface high will slide just to our south
keeping speeds down in the southeast.  Toward sunrise Thursday
morning, another cold front looks to make some headway into the TX
Panhandle, but all indications are that it will stay north of the I-
40 corridor. Temps are expected to be very close but just shy of
seasonal norms.

LONG TERM...
The pattern shift begins in earnest later Thursday as the
developing upper level low pushes south out of the Rockies toward
the Baja region and northern Mexico on Friday when it cuts off
from the Polar Jet and slowly tracks east well to our south on
Saturday and Sunday across the Rio Grande and into the southern
Gulf states by Monday.

Breezy surface westerly flow on Thursday will quickly subside
after sunset and gradually gain a more easterly component in
response to the upper level system approaching from the west.
Decent isentropic lift across a weak surface trough over the
course of the day Friday will see clouds fill in from south to
north along with the onset of any precipitation. Deepest moisture
will be off the Caprock by late Friday and this will continue as a
theme going through the weekend. Best dynamic forcing for the
first wave of precip will be late Friday into early Saturday. Our
southwest Texas Panhandle counties may see a wintry mix eventually
develop overnight Friday, but will still mostly see rain with the
rest of us as warm nose intrudes aloft and cold surface air
struggles to drop this far south.

During the day Saturday the upper level system looks to be passing
even farther south than previous model runs and will pull the
remaining moisture toward the I20 corridor along with it, before
developing into a more progressive and open wave on Sunday and
exiting Monday. We`ll see mostly cold drizzle and light rain on
Saturday under a weak deformation zone that shifts east and
southeast during the day. Could see some flurries across the
southern Texas Panhandle with any lingering moisture late
Saturday, but as drier and cooler air quickly fills in it would be
short lived with little or no impact.

Given the current thinking that leans toward GFS solution we`ll
see precip come to an abrupt early Sunday and shift south and
east. Highs continue to gradually cool before bottoming out in
the upper 30s to 40s on Saturday with ample moisture and cloudy
skies. Followed by temps warming slightly on Sunday before
returning to seasonal norms on Monday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05



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