Area Forecast Discussion
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984
FXUS64 KLUB 180431
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1131 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF locations for 06Z cycle. JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/

AVIATION...
TAFs will be VFR through 00Z cycle with SKC and south wind around
12 knots...slightly higher Monday afternoon. JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Upper level ridging will continue to control our weather for the
next 24 hours, and really right on through the entire 7 days. The
center of the 500 mb high across eastern New Mexico will bridge with
an amplifying ridge over the southeastern state with the western
extent of the west-northwest to east-southeast oriented ridge
lifting into Kansas and eastern Colorado by 00Z Tuesday. This
reorientation has already turned our light mid-level flow
northeasterly and it will veer to southeasterly by Monday afternoon.
Although our mid-level heights are progged to increase 10 to 20
meters over the next day, the developing southeasterly flow
through much of the troposphere are forecast to drop 850 mb and
700 mb temperatures (along with 1000-500 mb thicknesses) slightly.
Hence, highs on Monday will likely be 1-3 degrees below what is
realized this afternoon. Before then we will see a mild night with
lows close to this morning`s.

Regarding precipitation chances, they will remain low to NIL.
Convection firing over the higher terrain of New Mexico at our
latitude will struggle to move this direction given the light
eastern component to the mid-level winds. We will have to watch for
isolated storm development along a surface trough from the western
Texas Panhandle into southeast Mexico that could potential flirt
with our far western/northwest zones late this afternoon into this
evening, though it would have a tough time propagating into the CWA.
The surface trough should shift even further west into New Mexico by
peak heating Monday afternoon, keeping any slim storm chances west
with it. All said, no mentionable PoPs in the short term, with
values as high as 6 percent across the far northwest zones this
afternoon/evening.

LONG TERM...
A large anticyclone will be centered to our east most of the
long term period with a broadening of the feature westward as it
weakens a bit toward the end of the week. In fact by Fri the
ridge will consume much of the southern 2/3 of the U.S. with
mostly zonal flow across Canada and the northern tier states. An
increase in moisture on Tuesday is expected to bring some
afternoon cu and coupled with more southeasterly low level flow
hold temperatures mostly in the mid 90s. Highs though are expected
to climb back near or above the century mark for the remainder of
the week as a surface trough works east bringing more of a
southwesterly downslope component to the wind. The ridge is
forecast to finally reposition across the 4-corners region next
weekend which should result in a somewhat better opportunity for
afternoon/evening convection to work into the High Plains however
the string of above normal temps will show little sign of
improvement.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/13



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