Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 032327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
527 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Predominant low IFR conditions should dominate through much of the
night as a very moist low level airmass remains locked in place
with upslope component winds. A final area of rain showers will
lift across the TAF locations during the first half of the
forecast period but probably won`t significantly disrupt the lower
levels enough to break the LIFR stranglehold. A weak cold front
will slide southward near daybreak Sunday and will be followed by
gradual but significant low level drying. So, there is an end in
sight to the low ceilings and areas of fog and drizzle. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

It was a cool one out there with 20Z temperatures only in the upper
30s and lower 40s. The bulk of the precipitation associated with the
warm conveyor belt of the upper level low spinning southeastward
along the west coast of Sonora has now shifted well off to the east
of our area. However, that was not before supplying generous rain
totals for much of the area, especially off the Caprock where many
locations recorded anywhere from 1.00 - 1.50+ inches. In the wake of
the early day rain, cloudy skies along with a few sprinkles and
areas of drizzle and fog have been the rule this afternoon. This
will continue into the evening hours as low-level moisture remains
in place. Additionally, one last round of lift currently working its
way through Far West Texas and southeastern New Mexico will move
across the area for this evening into early Sunday morning bringing
renewed chances for scattered showers, though rain amounts will
generally be on the light side.

The upper low itself is progged to eventually turn more eastward
into Mexico during the day Sunday, but it will likely be too far
south to influence the South Plains significantly, at least through
the day. Instead, a weak cold front and surface ridge will build
into the area behind a shortwave trough traversing the Midwest.
Northerly breezes will carrying in drier air which will help to
clear skies from north to south through the day.

Increased insolation from the past few days will allow a modest warm
up with highs peaking in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Did tend to
favor the lower side of guidance given the moist grounds now in
place. Before then, temperatures won`t drop very far tonight as
clouds and moisture hold tough. Aside from the northwestern zones,
most of the FA will remain above freezing.

The upper low will eject from southern Chihuahua Sunday evening
crossing the Rio Grande near Del Rio sunrise Monday and toward the
Metroplex by the end of the day. The northern edge of the
precipitation shield associated with the deformation axis of this
low will likely stay south of the forecast area, although there
is a small chance it will brush the southern tier of the forecast
area Sunday night and the far southeast on Monday. Will continue
to trim PoP`s, but will keep a slight chance mention through that
period for that sliver of the area.

Afterwards precipitation chances will be near-zero through the
remainder of the week. Despite a long wave trough persisting
across the continental U.S. through the week, the jet stream
should remain to our north. The jet stream will, however, get
fairly close midweek as it crosses the Panhandle and Oklahoma.
This jet streak will be accompanied by a short wave trough and
some amplification of the upper pattern, which in turn will help
unleash moderated Arctic air (source air this morning of -20 to
-33 degrees in western and central Alaska) southward. Cannot
discount some flurries in this Arctic air Wednesday afternoon and
evening as the forecast area will be under the right rear quadrant
of the jet streak, but measurable precipitation is unlikely. This
moderated Arctic air will be our coldest of the fall/winter.
Timing of the front continues to make Wednesday`s high temperature
forecast problematic. Tend to favor an earlier arrival, in turn
favoring colder high temperatures nearer MEXMOS and WPC forecast
than model blend and EC-based MOS. Wednesday night should be the
coldest of the season with the potential for single digits across
the northwest. Light north winds much of the day Thursday with
surface high pressure moving slowly across the forecast area will
help reinforce the air mass. Highs will only rebound into the 30s
despite expected sunshine. The cold air will make a hasty exit as
flatter upper flow and increasing heights support southwesterly
surface winds and warming temperatures Friday and Saturday.




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