Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 092023
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
323 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED A FEW DEGREES OVER HIGHS YESTERDAY AS
SOUTHWEST WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HELPED TO BUMP TEMPS UP.
SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS USUAL WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WHEN THIS HAPPENED EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT TONIGHT FOR WIND SPEEDS TO
DROP OFF...STILL EXPECT THEM TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE CAPROCK FOR MORNING LOW TEMPS BUT BUMPED THEM UP ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS BY A FEW DEGREES AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
BACK ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND REDEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
SPEEDS COMPARABLE TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.  WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...CANNOT SEE ANY REASON FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES MORE ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO
MID-UPPER 80S FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPROCK...LOW 90S FOR THE EASTERN
SOUTH PLAINS INCLUDING LUBBOCK...AND MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
FLATTENED UA RIDGING/NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CLOSE OUT THE END OF
THE WEEK. AN UA DISTURBANCE SKIRTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADA WILL SEND DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT COULD IMPINGE
ON THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS TOMORROW EVENING. IT IS PROGGED
TO BRIEFLY STALL BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI MORNING. LACK OF UL SUPPORT
COUPLED WITH RATHER DRY LOW-MID LEVELS /PWATS LESS THAN 0.60
INCHES/ WILL LEAD TO NIL CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED SOME ON FRI /80S/ AS THE
NEARBY SFC RIDGE DRIVING THE FRONT ENCOURAGES SLIGHTLY BREEZY SFC
WINDS TO VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...WHICH IN TURN
ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THEREAFTER...TEMPS
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S ON SAT...COURTESY OF THE
RETURN OF SFC LEE TROUGHING AND THUS BREEZY S-SW WINDS. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST.

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A CLOSED PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS SRN CALI ON SAT...AND PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE DESERT SW SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AGREEMENT WRT THE TRACK...SPEED AND EVOLUTION OF THE SAID
DISTURBANCE...AS IT IS EXHIBITED TO OPEN UP WHILE TRAVERSING THE
DESERT SW...AND QUICKLY MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTN BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION BY THE EVENING. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WHILST AN UPTICK IN PWATS OCCURS /0.50-1.00 INCH/. BY
THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CWA...IT WOULD BE IN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER STATE WITH HINTS OF ITS PACIFIC FRONT HASTILY STREAMING DRY
AIR ONTO THE CAPROCK...THUS DRY-SLOTTING THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT NEARING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE SUN AFTN
COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH /FRONTOGENETICAL/ FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
UL SUPPORT...TO AID IN SLIM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OFF THE CAPROCK AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE /WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRYER AND
THE ECMWF REMAINS RELATIVELY VOID OF PRECIP. HAVE ELECTED TO BUMP
POPS UP TO 14 PERCENT ACROSS THE SAID AREAS...WHICH IS JUST SHY OF
MENTIONABLE LEVELS.

A 1025+ MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPOSE PRESSURE RISES OF 10-15 MB PER 6 HRS SUN NIGHT /PER THE
GFS/...LEADING TO RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/. WEAKER WIND SPEEDS ARE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF AND
THUS THIS BEING DAY 6...IT IS TOO SOON TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODEL
HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIND SITUATION ATTM. NONETHELESS...BOTH
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL USHER IN 850 MB TEMPS OF 0 DEGREES
C TO -3 DEGREES C...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY MON MORNING
/FREEZING TEMPS NW TO UPPER 30S SE/ AND A COOLER AFTN /50S AND 60S/.
ANOTHER UA TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH ITS
STRENGTH REMAINING IN QUESTION GIVEN SOME MODELS DEPICTING PRECIP
WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. GRADUAL WARMING WILL SUBSEQUENTLY OCCUR THROUGH
MID-WEEK COURTESY OF THE RETURN OF SFC SRLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF
UA RIDGING /HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BY WED/.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AGAIN...MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY.  WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME TOO STRONG ONCE
AGAIN WHICH IS THE MAIN REASON CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE. SO FAR
TODAY...ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN RED FLAG CRITERIA AND MOST OF
THESE ARE UNDER AN HOUR TOTAL TIME.  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING 5 PERCENT ARE STILL IN THE
CRITICAL RANGE ALONG WITH VERY DRY FUELS.  HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A
STRONG WIND MAY RESULT IN A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY REACHING RED FLAG
CRITERIA BUT NOT THE NECESSARY TIME COMPONENT.  WILL EVALUATE
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS TO SEE WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING OR
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED. JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  86  47  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  89  48  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  90  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  92  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       45  92  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  91  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    48  93  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  95  52  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          55  95  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  95  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>043.

&&

$$

14/29





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