Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 242333
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING SWINGING
AROUND SLOWLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING HAS CHANGED TO
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  WIND HAS GRADUALLY VEERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
ACROSS THE CAPROCK TO NORTHERLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL SEE
THE WIND DIRECTION COME FULL CIRCLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET FALLING TO
BELOW 10 MPH AND POSSIBLY GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
CAPROCK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURES GRADIENT
AS RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD ON THE CAPROCK WHILE THE
ROLLING PLAINS HOLDS ON TO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.  NO ONE MODEL HAD A
GOOD GRASP ON EXPECTED MIN TEMPS SO STARTED WITH SUPERBLEND...COOLED
THE CAPROCK BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES...THEN RAISED THE ROLLING PLAINS
AROUND 7 DEGREES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON PREVIOUS MORNINGS
TEMPS AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING TOMORROW AND WILL
ONCE AGAIN HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
SOUTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE AREA.  COULD SEE SOME LOW 90S ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AS BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH WEST WIND PROVIDES A GOOD
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.  SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S.
BIGGEST COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOMETIME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING INTO THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS HAVE SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST.  THE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT IS STILL MORE OF A
MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION.  DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT...IT COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES AND TRENDED TEMPS THIS WAY A BIT BUT NOT AS COOL AS SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE COMING IN.  BREEZY WEST WIND AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EWRD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THUS...SENDING DOWN A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
EVENING/NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 7-12 MB PER 3 HRS
SUGGEST NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AS HINTED AT BY MEX
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA /31 MPH
SUSTAINED/. WOULD THEREFORE NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BIT OF DUST GETS
LOFTED IN THE AIR AND BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...THESE
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A SFC RIDGE SETTLES
NEAR THE REGION AOA 26/12Z AND PROMOTE MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
EXHIBITED SPARSE AND LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ALONG THE FRONT. PROGGED
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH THE FROPA. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND...THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS COURTESY OF SLIGHT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CAN NOT BE OVER RULED. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS TO 7-12 PERCENT ATTM. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
RESIDES.

THANKS TO TOMORROW NIGHT/S COLD FRONT...TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS /THOUGH NOT TERRIBLY COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING THANKS TO A WEAK SFC LOW NW OF THE CWA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS SHOWN TO PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRIEFLY SWING SFC WINDS TO THE
N-NE. FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN BATTLING
WITH A BROAD UA TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID-WEST AND ERN CONUS AND
WHETHER OR NOT SOME OF THE COLD AIR COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPILL
IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ITERATIONSCONTINUE
TO HINT AT THE COLD AIR REMAINING NE OF THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY FOR NOW /HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S/. MEANWHILE...AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL
COMMENCE TO BREAK DOWN WHILST SHIFTING EWRD TOWARDS THE REGION. AS
SUCH...AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL
OCCUR LEADING TO TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA
DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
DE-AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE...THUS PROMOTING LOWERED
HEIGHTS...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILS SUCH AS THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA DISTURBANCE STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT...BUT TEMPS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY PER THE SUPER-BLENDED MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE ATTM.

FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER
DAY OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS A WEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF HAND SO
WE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE CRITICAL/RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED ONCE
AGAIN BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  72  32  62 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         44  78  35  63 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     45  82  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  83  36  63 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       48  85  36  64 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   44  81  37  63 /   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    44  83  37  63 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     56  87  39  66 /   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  87  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  89  43  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26


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