Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 201732 AAB
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1232 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours.  Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions this TAF period. Great day for flying.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A quieter day is expected across the region today. The upper low
that has brought the recent active weather has lifted
northeastward over the central High Plains early this morning and
will head toward the Missouri Valley later today. A surface cold
front has moved south of the forecast area. The last piece of jet
energy rounding the base of the trough is moving across the
forecast area at this time. The remaining few showers should shift
east of the area by daybreak. Cold advection behind the front will
be fairly robust with highs in the lower to middle 70s today.

However, the focus will shift quickly back precipitation potential
as early as Sunday as the subtropical jet stream is progged to
buckle northward across northern Mexico which will bring the left
exit region of the jet streak over West Texas. All the models are
shifting precipitation further north than in previous runs,
although most are keeping rain south of the forecast area. GFS is
the bullish of the bunch, especially Sunday night. Will insert a
slight mention to account in a nod to the GFS and trends of recent
runs. Better thunderstorm chances are still on tap for Monday into
Monday night as an upper level short wave trough moves
southeastward out of the Rockies. The return of deep moisture will
be limited by the convective activity to our south associated with
subtropical jet. Still forcing and moisture will be adequate for
at least scattered storms and possibly isolated severe.

Temperatures through midweek should be below normal, initially
with expected cloud cover and precipitation chances Monday then in
a post-frontal environment Tuesday and Wednesday with deep
northerly flow over the region. A sharp warmup will occur Thursday
into the weekend as upper level ridging moves overhead and low
level flow returns to the south and southwest.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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