Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 030242
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
942 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL BE A THREAT TO AVIATION INTERESTS. STRENGTH AND
EXTENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT STILL REMAINS A QUESTION.

THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT KCDS FOLLOWED BY
KPVW AND KLBB. PRIMARY TERMINAL CONCERN WILL BE MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
TSRA. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK ILL DEFINED FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NWLY FLOW ALOFT HAS AIDED A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE PALO DURO CANYON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB SEVERE AS IT MOVES SE TOWARD
THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INITIATING CONVECTION LATER TODAY /AFTER 00Z/ NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE NM BORDER. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED...BUT BETTER
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN
MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THUS GENERALLY 30-40
PCT POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED THERE. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE
FRIDAY...BUT AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ALONG TAIL END OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AGAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THUS ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LESS COVERAGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS FROM MID 80S SW PANHANDLE TO LOWER 90S SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON HOW GOOD THE
MODELS HANDLE ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FOURTH WILL BE
DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND NO MAJOR SHORTWAVES
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE MORNING ON THE 4TH DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE FRIDAY
NIGHT. KEPT A SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS FOR SATURDAY WHERE THERE IS SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY LEFT
OVER AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION COULD HELP INITIATE NEW CONVECTION.

THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER OR NEAR THE AREA WILL FLATTEN OUT A
BIT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. THIS WAVE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD AT
LEAST BE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GOOD SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH AN INFLUX
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE INDICATE THAT RAIN CHANCES COULD BE PRETTY GOOD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MODELS ARE SUFFERING
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS WHICH IS
IMPACTING HOW STRONG THE SHORTWAVE COULD POTENTIALLY BE. OPTED TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS RIGHT AROUND 50 PERCENT THAN SOME OF THE 60
POPS SUPERBLEND WAS PRODUCING BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBLE FEEDBACK
ISSUE. OTHER THING THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL DO IS HELP
COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE FOR THE LAST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST
AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO REBUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE AND OUR FORECAST
AREA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS HAPPENS AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
SOME MONSOON MOISTURE UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AND THIS MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE ISOLATED STORMS MAKE A
RUN INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

JORDAN
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  84  63  87 /  50  40  40  10
TULIA         67  86  65  88 /  50  40  40  20
PLAINVIEW     67  86  65  88 /  40  30  30  10
LEVELLAND     68  87  66  89 /  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  88  67  90 /  30  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   66  87  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  87  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  91  72  93 /  40  40  30  20
SPUR          70  87  70  90 /  20  20  20  10
ASPERMONT 73 91 72 94 / 20 20 10 10
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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