Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252036
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
336 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND A FEW LOWER
90S...BEING REPORTED AREA-WIDE AT 3 PM. OFF TO OUR WEST...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
LOWER AND MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO ONLY BACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRAW THE
DRYLINE BACK WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOME
LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THE DRYLINE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET
EMERGES OVER WEST TEXAS. A DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THE CAPROCK WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 40S...AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ROUGHLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 27/HIGHWAY 87. SOME PATCHY BLOWING
DUST APPEARS LIKELY AS MAY FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEING PLOWED
FOR SPRING PLANTING. COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER ON THE CAPROCK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
TUE NIGHT/WED...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE TUE INTO WED. DRY AIR WILL CONT IN PLACE WITH SURFACE GRADIENT
WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MODERATE WLY WINDS
DECREASING AFTER 21Z. DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION IN
WRN OK AND NW TEXAS. MINIMAL FORCING AS WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND
WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEP SFC TEMPS WARM AND CLOUD COVER TO
MINIMUM.

WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...A RETREATING DRY LINE AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
WILL MATERIALIZE AS UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EWD TO CENTRAL AZ WITH
ENERGETIC UPR TROUGH APPROACHING W TX. WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO PANHANDLE TOWARD 12Z THUR. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP AFTER A POSSIBLE NORTHWARD RETREAT
IN THE AFTERNOON. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT SOME GULF
MOISTURE AT LEAST INTO ROLLING PLAINS AND PERHAPS FARTHER WEST.
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR TRIPLE
POINT...BUT THAT COULD BE FARTHER NORTH OR NE OF FA...AND ATMOSPHERE
MAY BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED FARTHER SOUTH WITH MORE LIMITED COVERAGE.
CERTAINLY RISK OF SEVERE THURSDAY.

BY LATE THURSDAY...IF TIMING OF GFS/ECM IS TO BE BELIEVED...LOW
CLOUDS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO RETURN WWD INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH
MODERATE FORCING ALOFT. DRYLINE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SURGE EAST AS
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH TROF MOVE ACROSS AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY EARLY...BUT DRYLINE MAY BE EAST
OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON FRI. EXTREME ERN COUNTIES MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE CHANCE THEN.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONT
COULD ENTER THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY OR ON SUNDAY...WITH MODELS NOT
OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT RAIN COVERAGE. NEXT LOW ATTM WILL DIG INTO
SRN AZ WITH BRIEF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING LIKELY LATE SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUGGEST MODERATE/STRONG FORCING
IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH DIFLUENT NEG TILTED UPR TROF
APPROACHING WITHIN LARGE SCALE REX BLOCK/SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
WRN/CNTRL US. COOL NE SURFACE FLOW CONTG WITH CLOUDY...COOL
WEATHER. PRECIPITATION COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ABOVE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...KEEPING CHANCE OF RAIN IN FCST ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER TEMPS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPS...NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE APRIL...A
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS...THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF METEOROLOGICAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE RECENT GREEN-UP OF GRASSES...REFLECTED IN LOW ERC
VALUES...MEANS THAT FUELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY RESPONSIVE TO FIRE
STARTS. ERC VALUES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THOUGH DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE DANGER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE STATE OF THE FUELS...BUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
ISSUED FOR THE SITUATION TUESDAY.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/06



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