Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 210511
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1211 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period.
Thunderstorm chances will creep into the forecast during the
evening, but these will be addressed in later TAF packages.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern through early next week will be dominated by
troughing being carved out of the eastern CONUS with ridging over
the western CONUS. West Texas will be situated in the middle of
these two features in northwest flow aloft.

The cold front that moved through yesterday will stall out on the
Gulf Coast for the next few days. This will limit the amount of
quality moisture return ahead of a short wave trough early next
week. By Sunday afternoon, models depict a surge of higher theta-e
air up through southwest Texas into eastern New Mexico.
Thunderstorms will likely develop off the mountains and higher
terrain of eastern New Mexico within this theta-e axis and drift
eastward during the evening. However, there will not be much lift to
support any convection that does develop.

Better lift will enter on Monday afternoon and evening as a short
wave drops southeastward through the northwest flow aloft and a
subtropical jet strengthens across southwest Texas. Wind shear will
be increasing on Monday with the approach of the short wave trough
and will increase our chances for severe storms for Monday afternoon
and evening. Low level cloud cover will fill in Monday morning and
may limiting heating and ultimately the amount of available
instability. At the moment, analog guidance does indicate some
potential for severe storms for this time period.

A cold front will follow on Tuesday morning which will dry things
out. This front will move on through all the way into the Gulf of
Mexico limiting moisture return for several days. The upper level
ridge that had been sitting to our west will lose some amplification
as a Gulf of Alaska low moves into the Pacific northwest around
midweek. This ridge will drift eastward over West Texas allowing for
only a brief cool down behind the Tuesday cold front. Downsloping
winds during the second half of next week will also help to boost
temperatures well above seasonal averages.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74



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