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000
FXUS64 KLUB 162035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FORT SUMNER NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS
DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY WEST OF EARLIER PROJECTIONS BUT HAS A DETERMINED
EASTERLY MOTION WITH DEEPLY MIXED DRY AND HOT AIRMASS TO THE WEST.
LATEST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY JUST WEST OF
THE I-27 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 400 PM AND 500 PM...BEFORE EDGING OFF TO
THE EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING AS FAR EAST AS CHILDRESS OR PADUCAH.
MIXED LAYER CAPES INDICATE ENERGY POTENTIAL NEAR 1500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z SO WOULD
PRODUCE AN OUTSIDE RISK FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST OR EVEN LARGE HAIL
EVENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WOULD TAP INTO THE HIGHER
CAPE AIRMASS LYING NEAR THE RED RIVER.

HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD BUILD ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ON FRIDAY. BEST SUB-MENTIONABLE CHANCES MIGHT RUN FROM THE
EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE TO THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THOUGH WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE /ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES/ LATE
SATURDAY WHILE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEST
OF THE DRYLINE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
ADVANCE STEADILY THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WITH A LEAD NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL
CARRY MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THERE COULD EVEN BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOST ZONES WHERE A SFC BOUNDARY LINGERS WITH LIGHT BUT
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. PRESSURES WILL THEN FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY MIX/ADVANCE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WELL OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH
GIVEN THE SETUP WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRYLINE IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAT CURRENTLY PROGGED. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT SINCE IT
APPEARS FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT NWP DOES SUGGEST
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT A FAIR AMOUNT ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT STILL COULD HAVE AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
THIS INSTABILITY AND INITIALLY WEAK BUT IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES
BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND THIS WILL DRAG THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
GUSTY...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE. SIMILAR WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES UNDER A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK BUT LIKELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR COOLING INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP MIDWEEK WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING AS A DRYLINE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR
THE AREA. THIS DRYLINE COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AS EARLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MOISTURE RETURN...DRYLINE LOCATION AND UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AT THE FAR END OF THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID TREND POPS UPWARD WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CAPROCK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AT THE 20 FT
LEVEL...TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES PLUNGE
BELOW 10 PERCENT /TO AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT/. HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TOASTY...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AREA WIDE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  98  58  94  53 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         58 100  61  95  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59 100  59  96  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     60  99  63  96  59 /  10   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       61 100  64  97  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   57  98  65  95  59 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    59  99  65  95  60 /  10   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     64  96  68  99  63 /  20  10  10  20  30
SPUR          64 101  65  97  63 /  20  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     68 103  70  99  67 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

05/23