Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 171114
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
614 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
A slight chance for the development of light fog is possible
before sunrise tomorrow morning, but confidence is too low to
mention in this TAF cycle. A chance also exists for showers and
thunderstorms at all three terminals this afternoon and early
evening, but coverage will be scattered leaving low confidence in
whether a terminal will be affected or not.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Precip is winding down with only light rain remaining across our
northeastern zones and thunderstorms staying to the east of the FA.
Surface flow is a mixed bag thanks to outflow from earlier
convection, but winds seem to be gradually rebounding back to more
of a south to southeasterly direction as time progresses. Dewpoints
are lower than previously forecasted as the atmosphere has been
worked over, but these too should begin to rebound from the upper
40s back into the upper 50s and low 60s by sunrise. The current
forecast concern for the morning hours is the possibility for fog
over the next few hours. Dewpoint depressions are currently higher
than would be liked for fog development with the exception of our
northwestern zones. Patchy fog will be continued to be carried for
this area. Fog will be kept out of the forecast for this morning
unless dewpoint depressions start lowering at a relatively quick
pace.

Precip will be possible once again this afternoon and evening, but
as has been the case over the past several day the question is where
and coverage (that is if any). The dryline is expected to remain in
NM and is not expected to play a role in precip development. The
only real players will be remnant surface boundaries from this past
evening`s convection and weak disturbances in the upper level flow
which are currently well to our west. Precip chances will be kept
low given all the lack of triggers as well as little to no upper
level divergence. The severe threat remains low especially as CAPE
will be lower (MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg on the higher side) and 0-6
km shear will only be around 5-10 knots.

LONG TERM...
No significant changes made this morning as, in general, the 00Z
model suite is showing good run-to-run continuity. The only
meaningful adjustment was with precipitation chances Thursday
night and Friday. The evening model runs shifted a closed low
progged to move across the southern/central High Plains a bit
northward. The models have kept a pretty narrow corridor of
possibilities with what latitude this low ejects across, so will
not make any radical shifts. However, following the most recent
trend precip chances were lowered slightly and still favor
northern parts of the forecast area.

Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look warm and dry, initially as
low-amplitude upper ridging moves overhead, then as the flow aloft
becomes more zonal and an upper trough moving across the central
Plains helps push the dryline eastward across the forecast area.
The end of the forecast period will see cooler temperatures on the
backside of Friday`s upper low.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

51/99/99



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