Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 202104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
304 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Winds behind the cold front, as previously mentioned, increased to
30 to 35 kts though we will see speeds taper off within the next
couple of hours.  Thereafter clear skies and light winds should
persist overnight.  Humidity levels should remain well clear of fog
threats and it looks like we`re in for a very pleasant day for
Tuesday.  As the long term will address below, the new few days will
be different.

Upper level short wave ridging will give way to mostly zonal flow
Wednesday. A surface low will push southward from southeastern CO
and push across the OK/northern Texas Panhandles by Wednesday
afternoon. Marginal mixing should be attained allowing for winds to
get into the 20 mph range. High clouds will prevent enough mixing
from occurring to increase winds further. This should only allow for
meteorological fire weather conditions to be elevated. Much stronger
winds will come Thursday as a second deeper surface low pushes
across the TX/OK Panhandles ahead of an upper level trough and a
Pacific front. A H700 gradient of 6Dm across the region as well as a
surface pressure gradient averaging 5mb and decent mixing should
easily bring sustained winds into the 30-40 mph range with gusts to
50+ mph across the caprock. Downsloping will lower dewpoints into
the teens and single digits by Thursday afternoon/evening. This will
allow min RH values to drop into the teens to single digits as well
creating high to extremely critical fire weather conditions. While
a Fire Weather Watch seems nearly unavoidable for Thursday we will
hold off on watch issuance and defer to later shifts for the time
being as models continue to speed up the passage of the Pacific
front resulting in temps being cooled slightly from previously
forecasted. This will mostly affect whether or not our eastern
zones will meet Red Flag criteria.

The Pacific front will have pushed through fully by Friday morning
allowing temps to be roughly 20 degrees cooler than Thursday. This
will be followed by a secondary front Friday evening as the upper
trough passes to the east and will help keep Saturday temps on the
cool side as well. Sunday will warm back up into the upper 60s/low
70s as surface high pressure behind the front travels across the
southeastern US bringing winds back to the south/southeast. The
upper disturbance expected by late Sunday shown by the models over
the past several runs has faded into not much more than a distant
memory. While there is still some disagreement between models with
the upper level pattern Sunday it does appear to be at least zonal.



Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ021>023-



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