Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 212044
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS EVENING THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ALTHOUGH BULK OF
LIFT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD STEER MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. LOWER
LEVELS REMAINING NEARLY SATURATED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INITIATING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG PRIOR TO THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. TOTAL RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY LIKELY TO
REMAIN MODEST...OTHER THAN A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. SHOWER CHANCES
SHOULD WANE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST AND AFTERNOON IN THE EAST.
CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BUT MAY SEE ENOUGH RECOVERY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY TO PUSH NEAR 70 DEGREES.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE RIGHT
ON THROUGH LATE MAY...WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN
STORE FOR THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED
OUT ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS
PROGGED TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY BEFORE EJECTING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...EMERGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND AS MORE ENERGY DROPS DOWN THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP WEST TEXAS UNDER UNDER IRRITABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WILL CARRY
DEEP AND RICH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TIMING THE EMBEDDED SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVE CRITICAL TO DETERMINING THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GIVEN THE UNSTABLE PATTERN...JUST ABOUT ANY
PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.

REGARDING THE DETAILS...IT STILL APPEARS ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
LATEST SWODY2...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/SHEAR
TO SUPPORT A LATE NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK. IN ADDITION...
STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
PERIOD IF TRENDS HOLD AND CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN GROWS.
THE BEST THUNDER CHANCES MAY GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE CAPROCK BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES HOLD...THOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
FURTHER WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE IF ENOUGH HEATING/FORCING CAN BE
REALIZED. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY
RAIN MENTION TO THE GRIDS ON THE CAPROCK FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A
HEAVY RAIN MENTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY.

THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY
AND THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES GOING...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
WILL MOVE. ATTM WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR
THE BEST STORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK NWP CONTINUITY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...AND PARTICULARLY ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND SO DOES THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD STILL RESIDE IN THE AREA AND PROVIDE DAILY CHANCES OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST THIS
WEEKEND...WITH FURTHER WARMING TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  68  55  75 /  70  40  70  40
TULIA         49  63  57  73 /  80  50  70  50
PLAINVIEW     50  64  59  74 /  80  50  70  50
LEVELLAND     50  69  60  76 /  80  40  60  50
LUBBOCK       51  68  61  76 /  80  50  70  50
DENVER CITY   51  72  60  77 /  80  40  60  50
BROWNFIELD    52  70  62  77 /  80  40  70  50
CHILDRESS     53  64  62  73 /  70  70  50  70
SPUR          54  68  63  75 /  70  60  50  70
ASPERMONT     56  71  65  77 /  70  70  50  70

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23



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