Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
FXUS64 KOHX 191043
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
543 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
It was partly cloudy and mild across the Mid-State early this
morning, with temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 60s.
Our spell of Indian Summer will draw to a close today--but not
before highs, once again, soar into the 80s. As a pre-frontal low
level thickness ridge builds across the state, we should see a
sufficient increase to, perhaps, send temperatures a degree or so
higher than yesterday`s readings. The high forecast at Nashville
is 88 degrees. Most of the clouds today will be confined to the
extreme northwest, where there will be some broken cu for most of
the day, as well as a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms.
Otherwise, mainly just some scattered cu.
The warm weather will be eclipsed by the passage of a cold front
on Thursday and Thursday evening, and have gone with a movement
that is a blend of the GFS and the slightly slower NAM. Expect a
deepening shortwave to dive into the Central Plains by this
evening, and start to push Ohio Valley stationary front southward
as a cold front. The front should push across western Middle
Tennessee by early afternoon, and across the east during the mid
afternoon to early evening hours.
a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to occur just
ahead of the front. A few of those storms could become strong
with gusty winds and heavy downpours, especially during the
afternoon over the east, as the front makes its appearance during
the period of maximum daytime heating.
Expect temperatures to fall through the 60s after the front
passes, and northwestern areas, which will be first to see the
frontal passage, will likely see temperatures gradually fall
throughout most of the day.
There will also be a band of post-frontal showers to contend with,
lingering over western areas through Thursday evening, and over
eastern areas throughout Thursday night. A few showers may also
linger over the extreme east on Friday, where clouds will be
slower to clear out.
More seasonable autumn temperatures will roll into our neck of the
woods late this week into early next week, with daytime highs
only in the upper 50s to the middle 60s Friday and Saturday, and
only warming to the lower and middle 70s by Monday. Saturday
morning will be downright nippy, as lows dip into the upper 30s
to lower 40s (Brrrr!).
Even though winds turn briefly back to the south on Sunday, a
clipper system swings through on Monday, turning winds back to
Good old-fashioned dry October weather is forecast this
weekend into early next week, as big ol` high pressure systems
rule the day.The clipper system that passes over our area on
Monday will be moisture-starved, and serves to merely reinforce
the rulership of high pressure across the Tennessee Valley. Highs
are expected to remain in the 70s through the middle of next week,
with nighttime lows from the middle 40s to around 50 degrees.
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...A cold front has stalled out just to our north, with
unseasonably warm temperatures expected again today. The surface
front will finally begin moving into Middle Tennessee on
Thursday as an upper trough approaches from the west. The bulk of
the active weather will occur Thursday afternoon and evening, so
we should remain dry the next 24 hrs. with VFR conditions.