003
FXUS64 KOHX 091658
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1158 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Rain and storm chances will become more widespread this
  afternoon. The overall severe threat this week and weekend
  remains low.

- Localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds
  will be possible with any storms this week.

- Expect warm and humid conditions for the foreseeable future, but
  excessive heat won`t be a factor anytime soon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A weak surface boundary and upper tough are situated to the
northwest of Middle Tennessee this morning. Already, the air mass
across the mid state is plenty unstable, with Precipitable Water
values also above the 90th percentile climatologically. So the
interaction between these mesoscale features and the moist and
unstable environment will produce medium to high rain and storm
chances this afternoon and early evening. With the upper trough
coming through overnight, our rain and storm chances will drop off
some tomorrow, but we`ll still see some convective activity
tomorrow, most notably along the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Mainly daytime rain and storms are going to be a fixture in the
forecast for the foreseeable future, as the current air mass
stays with us. PoPs will increase again somewhat this weekend and
early next week as a series of weak shortwaves comes through
Middle Tennessee. Temperatures will start to build back up as we
head into the weekend and early next week, but excessive heat
won`t be a factor anytime soon. At this time, the risk of any
hazardous weather throughout the next 7 days is very low. The
worst we anticipate is the occasional strong thunderstorm and
heat indices climbing back into the low 100s beginning on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the area this
afternoon. Direct impacts to terminals may result in MVFR cigs
and visibilities, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Storm
coverage will taper off around 00Z, but MVFR to IFR cigs along
with patchy fog will build back into the area overnight with
conditions slow to improve Thursday morning. Another round of
scattered storms is expected Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  72  91  72 /  70  20  30  10
Clarksville    87  71  89  71 /  60  10  20  10
Crossville     85  66  83  65 /  70  40  70  20
Columbia       88  70  88  70 /  80  30  30  10
Cookeville     86  68  85  67 /  70  40  50  10
Jamestown      85  67  83  66 /  80  40  60  10
Lawrenceburg   88  70  88  69 /  80  40  40  10
Murfreesboro   90  70  89  70 /  80  40  40  10
Waverly        86  70  88  70 /  70  10  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Clements