Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOHX 230124
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
824 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE GONE...BUT WILL KEEP A 20 POP
THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH TIER OR 2 OF COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR FROST HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WE COULD SEE A FEW PATCHES LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE MID STATE WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
AIR TEMPS WILL DP A LITTLE BELOW 40.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MID-STATE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE TODAY ALONG A SFC DEW POINT
FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR MEM TO CSV AT 23Z. THIS BOUNDARY,
ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED CONVECTION, WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD DURING THE
EVENING, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP IN
THE CSV AREA BEFORE IT FINALLY PUSHES OUT OF THE MID-STATE.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF ATM.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

19

326 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VORT MAX OVER NRN AND CENTRAL AR HELPING TO SPAWN SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. PVA REGION IS EXPECTED
TO SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME OF THIS MAY REACH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY EVENING. AFTER
SOME REASONABLY HIGH POPS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS PRIOR TO
00Z...WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. WILL UTILIZE A PRE AFTERNOON PERIOD FOR THE
UPCOMING FCST.

OTW...A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BY FRI MORNING AT 12Z...SFC HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE MID STATE. SO...TWO RATHER COOL MORNINGS ARE
EXPECTED COMING UP. MODELS DO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID
AND/OR HIGH CLOUDINESS BOTH NIGHTS. SO...THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO LOW. AT ANY RATE...WE ARE EXPECTING MID 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR LOWS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT LARGE SO WIDESPREAD
FROST PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PATCHY FROST FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU
WHERE LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL BE TAKING PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOW CARRYING THE LOW FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE WEAKENING TREND HOLDING OFF UNTIL IT REACHES OUR
AREA. THIS EQUATES TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS COMING UP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT...SYSTEM STILL
ELONGATES W-E AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

FURTHER ALONG IN THE EXTENDED...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA. MODELS STILL PLAN ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WILL THEREFORE LEAN MORE TOWARD A RAIN SHOWER SCENARIO AND
KEEP THUNDER OUT...FOR NOW. UPCOMING RUNS MAY BEGIN TO CARRY THAT
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH AS WELL.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. NUMERICAL MEX DATA STILL SUGGESTS
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS. I WILL GO AHEAD AND GO UNDER THE MEX NUMBERS TO
SOME DEGREE.

21

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.