Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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801
FXUS64 KOHX 221946
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
246 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

It was a hot and humid day across Mid TN. Mid afternoon temps
were in the low to mid 90s, except 80s Plateau. Dew points were in
the very unpleasant lower 70s. The atmosphere has remained capped
off, except for the northeast quadrant where a few showers have
developed. A few showers or thunderstorms will remain a
possibility through the late afternoon, mainly over the northeast.
The northeast / Upper Cumberland area will also have the highest
potential for brief strong storms, with better low level
convergence and stronger mid level winds. Those stronger winds are
part of a setup located to our north that is expected to bring a
strong MCS from the southern Great Lakes to Upper Ohio Valley
tonight. Any Mid TN storms are expected to dissipate as the sun
sets. The overnight hours will be quite muggy with lows only in
the low to mid 70s.

Thursday will be another hot one, perhaps a degree or 2 higher
than today. Increasing instability with the approach of a
boundary from the north will bring a small chance for
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Greater thunderstorm chances move
in by Thursday evening as a boundary drops into Mid TN. Some
strong to briefly severe storms are possible, mainly north half.

The boundary will linger over the area Friday keeping a chance
for thunderstorms in the forecast. If we are lucky, temperatures
will back off slightly for Friday.

Saturday and Sunday look very warm and humid with increasing
chances for scattered thunderstorms. The main influence will be
an upper level ridge across the southern states, but the ridge
will begin to push westward Sunday.

Looking ahead to Monday through Wednesday, northwest flow aloft
will develop with a stronger ridge out west. This will bring a
more unsettled pattern, with possible disturbances bringing
episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Models suggest the trough
may become deep enough for a nice cooldown by late week, but time
will tell.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions are forecast at all three sites for the entire TAF
period with CSV the only site expected to see isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Radar trends show just a few
cells popping up across the plateau region which should diminish
after sunset. A slightly tighter pressure gradient should produce
more persistent west-southwest wind gusts tomorrow.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  96  75  93  73 /  10  20  40  20  10
Clarksville    76  95  73  91  72 /  10  30  40  20  10
Crossville     71  89  70  87  67 /  10  30  40  30  10
Columbia       74  95  73  92  73 /  10  20  30  30  10
Lawrenceburg   73  95  73  92  73 /  10  20  30  30  10
Waverly        75  94  73  90  73 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........05



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