Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 121015
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
415 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

At 3 am, it was cloudy across the Mid-State, with temperatures
between 40 and 45 degrees. Colder air is sweeping in from the
north, with temperatures now dropping a degree or two an hour.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 5 am through 10
am this morning for the northern Cumberland Plateau, where up to
an inch of snow will be possible, mainly along the higher ridges.
Many areas may only see a dusting. The computer model data for
this morning are leaning toward a bit less moisture and boundary
layer temperatures quite marginal for any accumulation. However,
still believe we will be some scattered snow showers in the
advisory area later this morning, and at least the potential for
some minor snow accumulations. The good news is that the coldest
surface temperatures during the advisory period will be mainly
around 32 or 33 degrees, with road temperatures even a bit warmer
than that. So, even though some roads may become snow-covered, do
not currently anticipate any widespread travel problems.

Looking for chance for some mixed rain and snow just west of the
Cumberland Plateau this morning, with just a slight chance for
rain further west toward the I-65 corridor.

After our generally pleasant temperatures yesterday, today`s
temperatures will feel a bit more raw. Temperatures are expected
to fall into the 30s over most of the area by 15z, and then hold
relatively steady for the remainder of the day. Gusty north winds
will produce wind chills below 32 degrees through the afternoon,
with wind chills commonly in the 20s in areas near the Kentucky
border and along the Cumberland Plateau.

Skies will start to clear from the west by late morning, and
become partly cloudy over most areas by mid-afternoon.

Dry weather is forecast for Wednesday night through Friday
morning. A weak little clipper swings through Wednesday afternoon
and night, but with limited moisture available, is expected to
come through dry. By Friday, a more significant shortwave moves
into the Mississippi Valley. However, moisture remains limited
even with that one, with the best chance for precipitation up
across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes area. Here in our
neck of the woods we`ll just have a slight chance for a wintry mix
over eastern areas, with a slight chance for rain over the west--
mainly Friday afternoon and early evening.

Upper level pattern finally alters to a more temperate one for
Middle Tennessee as we head into the weekend, as an upper level
low pressure area develops over northern Mexico and the Desert
Southwest, and puts us in a southwesterly flow aloft. This taps a
moisture feed off the Pacific and western Gulf of Mexico, bringing
in an extended period of clouds and chance for rain to Middle
Tennessee for Saturday night through Sunday night. This system
pulls eastward from Texas across the Gulf coast and Tennessee
Valley region by Monday, bringing clearing skies and an end to the
showers during the daylight hours on Monday. By late Monday expect
only a few lingering showers along the Cumberland Plateau.

Fortunately, low temperatures during the precipitation event this
weekend will only be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. So, believe
we`ll likely be looking an an all-rain event.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Clipper system to move across the area late tonight and Tuesday
morning. Light snow shower activity is possible across the
Cumberland Plateau area. Will include vcsh for the CSV taf.
Otw...lower clouds should begin to move in after midnight. Look
for winds to continue to shift to west-northwest through 08z. It
will be on the breezy side by Tue afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens. Partial clearing will begin around or just
before 18z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      42  25  50  35  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    41  23  50  32  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
Crossville     35  20  42  32  41 /  50   0   0  10  10
Columbia       42  23  50  33  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   41  23  49  33  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waverly        41  25  50  33  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for
Cumberland-Fentress-Overton-Pickett-Putnam.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08



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