Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOHX 290840 CCA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TEMP AT CSV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU TUE NT)...

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. 3 AM TEMPS ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND AS LOW AS 25 AT CSV.
SO...A DEFINITIVE HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING GOING UNTIL 10 AM AS SCHEDULED.

FOR TODAY...BIG WARMUP IN STORE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED
THE AREA OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS HAS NOW MOVED OFF AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND BIG TIME WAA AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO THE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP WITH THE WARMUP BUT A FEW CLOUDS
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WILL
ADD A HELPING HAND AS WELL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK
LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH. 850 MB
BASED SHOWALTER VALUES DO TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. 500 MB TEMPS ARE ON THE COLD SIDE SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL PERHAPS. BUT...CHANCES LOOK RATHER
REMOTE. OTW...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 4OS. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIRMASS IS ONE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL CARRY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL ENABLE ANOTHER WEAK COLD W-E COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. INSTABILITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE MORE APPRECIABLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PATTERN DOES NOT
RESEMBLE A POTENT SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BUT...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME GENERAL THUNDER...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES WEST OF
THE PLATEAU.

.LONG TERM(WED THRU SUN)...

OVERALL CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMING MORE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EXPECTED WX PATTERN MID WORK WEEK THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NWLY FLOW ON WED TO QUASI
ZONAL THU THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES EXPECTED WED AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. SFC
PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING BROAD WAA SCENARIO STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION...AND EVEN INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID STATE ON FRI WITH STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS RATHER
MOISTURE RICH WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS ALONG WITH ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU FRI...WITH THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THRU FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME. SOME
LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHWRS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. THIS WAA SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO LOWER 70S TN RIVER VALLEY. LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES GENERALLY SPANNING THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT...LOWS
SHOULD BE SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SAT MORNING. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS/LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VAULES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  44  65  40 /   0  70  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    62  42  63  41 /  10  70  10  05
CROSSVILLE     52  43  59  36 /   0  70  20  05
COLUMBIA       63  46  65  41 /   0  70  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   61  47  64  41 /   0  70  20  05
WAVERLY        63  43  65  41 /  10  70  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

21/31






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.