Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 190936
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
336 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS CLEAR AND VERY COLD ACROSS THE MID STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
AFTER THE SUN COMES UP YOU CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO BEGIN A RAPID RISE,
AND BY MID AFTERNOON WILL HAVE WARMED UP SOME 30 TO 35 DEGREES!
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
PART OF THIS BIG TEMP RISE WILL BE DUE TO A DEVELOPING WARM TONGUE
AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY NOON AND INTO THE MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WON`T BE THE ONLY THING RISING TODAY. YOU CAN EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNRISE AND QUICKLY
BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WHICH WILL
PREVENT US FROM FULLY ENJOYING THE MILDER TEMPS.

ANOTHER COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY,
KEEPING HIGH TEMPS LOCKED INTO THE 40S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ISENTROPIC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, LIFT IS MINIMAL AND
SHOULD ONLY BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR
MOST WESTERN COUNTIES. AS CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE WEST, THE TEMP
FALL WILL SLOW THURSDAY NIGHT, AND SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AT LEAST A FEW
DEGS ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE PRECIP EVENT. IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, HOWEVER, WE COULD
STILL END UP WITH A NARROW BAND OF ZR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-65 AND
THE TN RIVER THUR NIGHT, AND WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR NOW, THOUGH, IT LOOKS LIKE
ALL RAIN.

A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT PUSHES INTO THE OK/TX AREA
ON SATURDAY WILL SEND A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF
IT, ESPECIALLY OVER ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. A BAND OF RAIN, AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. THERE`S ACTUALLY
SUFFICIENT CAPE AVAILABLE TO KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN AFTER THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP PUSHES EAST OF
OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING (DESPITE THE FACT THAT MOISTURE IS NOT AS
DEEP).  SO, HAVE KEPT PRETTY HIGH POPS RUNNING ALL DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...BY MONDAY, A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, KEEPING OUR GENERAL NWLY FLOW PATTERN INTACT.
YOU CAN EXPECT SOME MORE SHOWERS TO OCCUR OVER OUR AREA AS THIS
TROUGH PUSHES IN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
DAYS TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED, BUT WITH HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER POTENTIAL ARCTIC DUMP SHAPING UP FOR US
TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH, AND KEEPS OUR SEMI-PERMANENT BROAD
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTACT. IF THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT, MORE FRIGID AIR COULD SLIP ACROSS THE POLE AND GET
DUMPED SOUTHWARD BY THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER. THE GFS PAINTS
A DIFFERENT, NOT-QUITE-SO-COLD, PICTURE. HOWEVER, THIS CURRENT
PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO LAST WINTER`S, WHEN LOWS JUST KEPT
ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY CANADA, AND KEPT PULLING COLD AIR
SOUTHWARD. SO, FOR NOW, WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. I`D
KEEP THE HEAVY COAT HANDY ANYWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      52  28  45  28 /   0  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    49  25  42  28 /   0  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     43  27  42  25 /   0  05  05  05
COLUMBIA       52  28  48  32 /   0  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  29  48  35 /   0  05  05  10
WAVERLY        48  26  44  32 /   0  05  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




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