Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 251038
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
438 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY SEEING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND BELOW
FREEZING EAST. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD STICK AROUND TODAY BEFORE
AN APPROACHING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US AND PULLS GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE EAST COAST. MODELS MAINLY HAVE THE POPS AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT A FEW HAVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE CLIPPED WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. INITIAL PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AFTER AROUND 09Z SO SNOW MAY
MIX IN. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING INDICATIONS OF SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS GETTING NEAR 32F...AND SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR SNOW AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS OR MOISTURE PUSHING FARTHER
EAST WILL RESULT IN ALL RAIN OR VERY LITTLE PRECIP.

NEXT SHORTWAVE CLIPPER MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SHOULD BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AGAIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST MAY GET SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING INTO THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER 850MB TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH...AND SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT COLDER THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED
TO WED MORNING. HAVE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
ATTM...BUT NAM AND OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT WARMER
OUT EAST BETWEEN RUNS. DEPENDING ON WHICH WAY MODELS SWING WILL
OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THE SNOW FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING.

FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. 850MB TEMPS WILL
LARGELY BE BELOW 0C EVEN AT 00Z FRIDAY...SO TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EVEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FRIDAY AND BEYOND HOWEVER WILL HAVE ZONAL FLOW AT HIGH
LEVELS AND LARGELY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB...SO TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60S RETURNING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE SAT
AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      50  30  51  34 /  05  10  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    47  27  48  32 /  05  10  30  20
CROSSVILLE     50  31  47  31 /  05  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       51  30  52  34 /  05  10  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   51  31  52  34 /  05  10  20  10
WAVERLY        48  29  50  33 /  05  05  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL




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