Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 211127
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR/MVFR AT KBNA AND KCKV ALONG WITH LIFR/IFR AT KCSV SHOULD
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS LIFT AND VISIBILITY IMPROVES.
KCKV AND KBNA WILL LIKELY IMPROVE FIRST...WITH HIGH MVFR POSSIBLE
BY LATE MORNING. VFR LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR KCKV AND KBNA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LOOKS TO STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER AT KCSV
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CIGS LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON TO FINALLY HIT VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS
OR SO CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY...AND
LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR KCSV. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD BE AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID-STATE AT FORECAST TIME...THERE ISN`T
MUCH TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. A LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
COULD PERSIST ON THE PLATEAU THROUGH MID-MORNING AND BY THIS EVENING
WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING...BUT NOT BEFORE THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS PUT A STING ON TODAY`S FORECAST HIGHS WE`VE HAD IN THE LAST
SEVERAL FORECAST PACKAGES.  SEVERAL AREAS ARE LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE LOW 60S...AND I DON`T THINK ANYONE SEES 70.  AS THE
ENSUING SURFACE RIDGE TAKES OVER AND WE CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WE COULD
SEE SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING.  MANY PLACES MAY
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THIS WOULD BE 8-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT NOW THE NAM IS
HELPING ITSELF TO A DOSE OF MODEL DISCONTINUITY.  THE LATEST RUN IS
KEEPING AN UPPER RIDGE FROM AMPLIFYING TOO QUICKLY AND ALLOWING A
WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREEP INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY.  I
DON`T HAVE A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS...THOUGH THE NAM WAS THE ONLY
MODEL SHOWING YESTERDAY`S RAIN PRIOR TO IT OCCURRING.  WILL KEEP THE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST SATURDAY FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD FINALLY REASSERT ITSELF BY SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BETTER RAINS CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW
STARTS AGAIN...AND WE END UP BACK IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS SPELLS A PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED LAST
WEEKEND...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN
EACH DAY...SO WILL PERSIST WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS NO ONE DAY IS SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THAN THE
NEXT AT THIS TIME.

UNGER

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06





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