Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 271607
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1107 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR PAH HAS
DISSIPATED. 12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB...AND EXPECTED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLATEAU WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF
THERE PER LATEST HRRR RUNS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST ZONES AND TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE STARTING OFF AT CKV, AND EXPECT TO GO VFR BY 14Z. CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING EXTREME WRN KY & SRN IL MAY MAKE
IT INTO NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS MORNING, SO AM INCLUDING
VCTS FOR CKV. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED CELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, SO TS A POSSIBILITY AT CSV. ONCE AGAIN
EXPECT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AAAH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STINGS US AGAIN.  THE MCS THAT WAS
UPSTREAM OF US THIS TIME YESTERDAY DECIDED IT HAD JUST ENOUGH STEAM
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING BEFORE DYING
OUT. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND AND NW FLOW ALOFT STILL OVERHEAD...
GOING TO HEED TO THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND INCREASE POPS FOR MID-STATE COUNTIES WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR LATER THIS MORNING. NOT REAL CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING THAT IS TRYING TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES WITH SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF I-65. SAME STORY REGARDING STRENGTH.

A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER LATE-MORNING CHANCES PUSHING A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST EACH DAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THAT UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO GOING TO WARM THINGS UP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK.  MANY MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL SUGGESTING 95-97 BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT I`M STILL NOT BUYING THESE VALUES.  CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS DOESN`T GET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
WEDNESDAY...I`M STILL GOING TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREE BELOW THESE
MOS VALUES. THAT ISN`T TO SAY IT ISN`T GOING TO BE HOT AND STEAMY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. IT IS. HEAT INDICIES OF 100-105 ARE GOING TO BE
PREVALENT BECAUSE OF LOW 70S DEW POINTS AND ANY INCREASE TOWARDS
THOSE 95-97 DEGREE READINGS WILL PUSH US INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL COVER ELEVATED HEAT INDICIES WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY
EACH DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WON`T BE MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAY OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MANY SPOTS WON`T FALL PAST THE MID-70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE ONLY THING THIS FRONT WILL DO
IS ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS WELL OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES.

UNGER

AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. WEAK NW FLOW
WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ISOL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PLATEAU
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OTW...PATCHY FOG AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  74  94  75 /  20  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    91  72  92  73 /  20  10  20  20
CROSSVILLE     87  70  87  70 /  30  20  30  30
COLUMBIA       94  73  94  73 /  20   0  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   93  72  94  73 /  10  10  20  20
WAVERLY        92  73  93  74 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55


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