000
FXUS64 KOHX 051500
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
900 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE CONTINUING TO MAKE THE SKY AND
TEMP FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT AND UNCERTAIN TODAY FOR PARTS OF OUR
AREA. THE 12Z OHX UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION GOING UP TO 4 KFT.

FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW AND SLEET COVER
REMAINS...AND FOR THE NASHVILLE AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
INVERSION WILL BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NNE
WINDS COMING ACROSS SNOW COVER. THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO
KEEP SKIES OVERCAST THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE LOWERED TO UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WHICH MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC. ALSO...THESE AREAS MAY STAY FOGGY THROUGH MIDDAY.

SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
AREAS...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIXING TO EAT AWAY AT THE CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SO AREAS FROM CROSSVILLE TO MANCHESTER WILL
SEE A LOT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER
50S.

FOR LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN...LIKE MURFREESBORO...COOKEVILLE AND
COLUMBIA...WE THINK THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS...BUT AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING FROM
THE WEST. SO...A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY OVERALL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES WITH FZFG
AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY AND PROCESS OF CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING MAY BE SLOW ONE WITH
AN INVERSION SHOWING UP TO AROUND 4KFT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE AT
VFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT SOME FOG AND MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN
CKV/CSV LATER THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG IN PLACE THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE GENERALLY A DEGREE OR LESS. VSBYS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. CURRENT TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 ELSEWHERE. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM. AFTER 8 AM...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND
THE VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE.

FOR TODAY...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE RATHER DRY ABOVE 2-3 KFT. SHOULD SEE
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON. BUT...CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS AND ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF ON THURSDAY. THE FEATURE WILL
TAKE A SOUTHERLY TRACK AND MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...SPREADING
SHOWERS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS QUESTIONABLE. FOR THE FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THU AND THU NT AND EVEN LOWER POPS NORTH.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS IN STORE.
HOWEVER...I WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS. BY FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS.

IN THE EXT FCST...A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA ON SUN NT AND INTO MONDAY...BUT AN ELEVATED ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. OTW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$