Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 202154
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
254 PM PDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will bring much above average temperatures through
the weekend, with records possible through Wednesday. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday, mainly
south of Highway 50. Snowmelt flooding will continue for the creeks
and streams in Mono County, with more significant concerns for the
West Walker and mainstem Walker River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The main change to the forecast through early next week was to
raise high temperatures Saturday through Monday. Isolated to
scattered mid-afternoon through evening thunderstorms will still
be possible through at least Thursday, mainly south of Highway 50
and near the Sierra. Isolated thunderstorms this evening have the
potential to drop wind gusts to 50 mph or more out in the Basin
and Range given surface temp/dewpoint spreads in excess of 60 degrees
and SPC mesoanalysis showing DCAPE over 2000 J/KG.

A weakness between ridges over the eastern Pacific and the Desert
Southwest will move over northeast California and western Nevada
for Wednesday and Thursday. This should allow mid-level temperatures
to remain just cold enough to tap into some instability with
daytime heating, along with convergence for showers and
thunderstorms near the Sierra south of Highway 50 and out into
Mineral County. A few cells could also drift out into Douglas or
southern Lyon Counties Wednesday evening with light south to
southwest flow aloft. Thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday are not
expected to be overly strong, but outflow winds to 45 mph and
localized areas of moderate to heavy rainfall (little storm
movement) could accompany storms.

Friday and Saturday, the weakness in between the Pacific/Desert
Southwest ridges is expected to fill in over the region. This
should allow temperatures to creep back up to around the century
mark in the lower valleys for the weekend. Temporary subsidence
warming/increased capping aloft as the ridge builds overhead
should give way over the weekend as intense terrain heating
persists. This should bring back isolated thunderstorms by Sunday.
In fact, it could even return by Saturday evening, but
probabilities are only around 10% for the Sierra and as a result
storms were left out for now.

The start of next week promises continued hot conditions under the
ridge. However, by next Tuesday signs are pointing to a brief easing
of the heat (along with increasing winds) as energy moving into the
Pacific Northwest flattens the upper ridge. Snyder

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected between mid-late afternoon and
around sunset, generally east of Highway 395 and south of Highway
50, and possibly north and northeast of Eagle Lake in Lassen and
northern Washoe Counties. Outflow winds up to 45 kts will be
possible with stronger storms today. Even though storms are not
expected to affect any northeast CA/western NV terminals directly,
there could be some indirect impacts from gusty outflow winds and
blowing dust for Basin terminals including KLOL and KNFL.

Wednesday, thunderstorms continue to be possible between 21Z/2PM and
04Z/9PM, mainly south of Highway 50 in the Sierra and out into extreme
western NV. Gusts to 35-40 kts could accompany stronger storms, with
brief moderate to heavy rain also possible as thunderstorm motions
are expected to remain slow. Snyder

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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