Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 171018
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
218 AM PST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Another storm system will bring additional valley rain and
mountain snow today into Saturday. A much stronger storm is still
on track to bring gusty winds and more significant precipitation
with higher snow levels early next week. Keep flood mitigation in
place or readily available. Colder storms with lower elevation
snow are then possible by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Moisture ahead of the next storm currently over southern CA will
spread to the north today, with snow beginning near the Sierra
crest before daybreak and increasing through the morning. A broad
area of upper level divergence will allow for moisture to spread
across much of western NV during the day and into tonight,
although precipitation amounts will be generally light. Rainfall
rates with this storm are unlikely to be sufficient enough to
produce any new hydrologic concerns. Winds in most areas are not
expected to be significant, except for some areas south of
US-50 and east of US-95 mainly in Mineral County, where increased
southeast flow could produce some gusts above 40 mph at times
this afternoon and tonight. This storm is moderate by Sierra
standards, with snow levels down near 5000 feet this morning and
remaining between 5000-6000 feet in most areas through tonight.

Snowfall amounts still look on track for the advisory areas, with
totals through Saturday morning ranging from 4-8 inches around the
Tahoe basin and northeast CA above 5000 feet, with locally higher
amounts around 1 foot west of Highway 89. Mono County still looks
to have the highest snow amounts, with 6-12 inches along and west
of US-395 above 6500 feet, and locally up to 2 feet possible near
the Sierra crest. For western NV, some of the foothills above
5000 feet may receive an inch or so (mainly in areas where snow
occurs at night), with a few inches possible above 6000 feet
including Virginia City. A snow-rain mix is possible at times
down to valley floors around Reno-Carson but no accumulation is
expected.

Wrap around moisture will likely keep some areas of steady light
rain going into Saturday morning, especially near and east of
US-95, before precipitation gradually diminishes during the day. A
couple more inches of snow could accumulate in higher elevations
although travel impacts should be limited to higher passes as snow
is less likely to accumulate on paved areas below 7000 feet.

For Saturday night, lingering rain and snow showers remain
possible mainly north of Susanville-Gerlach and near the Sierra
crest with minimal additional amounts of rain and snow.

By Sunday, a weak shortwave brushing across the Pacific Northwest
is projected to bring another round of light rain and snow again
to areas north of Susanville-Gerlach and near the Sierra crest,
with snow levels around 5000 feet. For western NV, precip chances
are slim while winds increase during the day with gusts 35-45 mph
possible in lower elevations, with Sierra ridge gusts up to 80
mph. MJD

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night through Thursday...

Some minor changes were made to increase QPF a little Monday into
Tuesday with a slight drop in snow levels Tuesday morning.
Overall...the inherited long term forecast was kept mainly intact.

The primary forecast problems revolve around the amount of QPF and
snow levels Monday into Tuesday and the amount of snow in the
valleys for Wednesday.

The next in a series of storms begins to affect the region
starting late Sunday night...but the substantial deep moisture tap
does not move into the region until Monday. Ahead of the moisture
there will be strong gusty winds early Monday...but these should
weaken as deep moisture begins to move into the area by late
Monday morning.

The heaviest precipitation is likely to start over northeast
California Monday morning then move south through the day along
the Sierra and spill into western Nevada. Snow levels rise into
the 7500-8000 foot range through the day. This will raise the
possibility of flooding of small streams and possibly some larger
river systems where much of the basin is below the snow level.
This would primarily affect the basins in northeast California
from the Pit south to the Middle Fork Feather.

Precipitation finally begins to decrease by Tuesday morning as
snow levels also fall. Totals liquid amounts could reach 3-5
inches in the higher elevations of the Sierra with 1 to 4 inches
in the lower elevations of the Sierra and northeast California.
Into far western Nevada amounts could reach around an inch or more
in the foothills with just under an inch in the valleys. Farther
east amounts will be lighter.

The next system moves into the region early Wednesday. This
system has been getting wetter as well. Currently it looks cold
enough for mainly snow in the valley locations of western Nevada.
this one could bring a few inches to the valleys along with more
than a foot in the higher elevations. It is a faster moving system
as well. Models hint at a brief period of drier weather late
Thursday before a storm affects the region by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moisture increases from south to north today with cigs/vsbys
lowering and mountains becoming obscured. Snow develops in the
higher elevations today with 6-10 inches of accumulation at
KTRK/KTVl/KMMH before the snow tapers to showers Saturday.

Gusty ridge winds are possible today and tonight. The strongest
surface winds may be east of Highway 95 in areas that respond
better to southerly winds than just east oft he Sierra.

More stormy weather is expected starting late Sunday. Gusty winds
are possible Monday along with increasing rain and snow across
the region. This system is likely to last through late Tuesday
then another storm begins to affect the region Wednesday with more
widespread snow.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     NVZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM PST
     Saturday NVZ002.

     Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning NVZ003.

CA...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon
     CAZ071.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM PST
     Saturday above 5000 feet in CAZ071.

     Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning CAZ073.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday CAZ073.

     Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM PST
     Saturday CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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