Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 130901
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
201 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry and warm conditions are expected this weekend with typical
afternoon and evening breezes. A weak low pressure will produce
cooler temperatures Monday with a chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms in northeast California and northwest Nevada. Dry
weather with a warming trend is then expected for the remainder
of next week as high pressure builds into California.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

Very few adjustments were made to the short term portion of the
forecast. A weak wave continues to be projected to influence the
wind pattern Sunday and Monday while bringing isolated to
scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon for extreme northern
Washoe County and the Surprise valley. There are some model
discrepancies at this time with NAM/EC being much drier than the
GFS. We`ll keep scattered coverage for now and reevaluate this
afternoon.

Winds will be marginally stronger than typical afternoon flows
both Sunday and Monday with area gusts generally up to 30 mph.
There may be some patchy areas north of Interstate 80 but south of
the Surprise valley where critical thresholds are met for Red
Flag conditions. However, confidence in duration and extent of
these conditions are too low to warrant the issuance of a Fire
Weather Watch at this time.

Otherwise, Tuesday trends cooler with afternoon high temperatures
mainly in the 80s for western Nevada and in the mid/upper 70s for
Sierra valleys. Boyd

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...

Medium range models remain in good overall agreement during the
extended period although there are differences in some of the
details. The GFS holds on to northwest flow in the wake of a long
wave trough a bit longer into early Thursday while the ECMWF tries
to build a ridge a little faster for Thursday.

A weak short wave Wednesday moving southeast through the flow could
bring increased clouds...but these will be short lived. Temperatures
rebound starting Thursday to above normal. Light zonal flow starts
developing late Thursday into Friday. This zonal flow develops as
the ridge has a difficult time getting amplified. If the ridge were
to amplify more...temperatures could be much warmer heading into the
weekend.

The relative weak flow in the mid to upper levels...especially
Friday and Saturday...will allow low level convergence to be the
driving factor in convective cloud development at the end of the
week and into the weekend. Right now it appears there will not be
much in the way of deep convection Friday...just cumulus clouds. By
Saturday there is an increasing likelihood of storms developing in
parts of Mono and Mineral counties. This could carry over into
Sunday...but the guidance is now hinting at stronger westerly flow
aloft developing by then. This would limit any convective chances.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with a slight increase in winds this afternoon and
evening from the west will keep aviation weather from being much of
a problem today. No storms are expected. By Monday the westerly flow
begins to increase a bit more with surface gusts approaching 25-30
kt north of I-80. Ridge gusts could exceed 35 kt. There is a chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms north of I-80 Monday as a weak
cool front slides east-southeast across the region.

Dry conditions return for Tuesday and much of the remainder of the
week.

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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