Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 142148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
148 PM PST Wed Feb 14 2018


A weak weather system could bring light snow showers tonight,
mainly in northeast California and northwest Nevada. A few showers
will linger over Mono County Thursday morning. Dry conditions
will then prevail for the next few days, below average
temperatures Thursday becoming warmer through Saturday. A
stronger storm may bring snow showers early next week along with
much colder temperatures.


Some adjustments were made to the first 12 hours tonight, but
little change was made otherwise. The changes were to increase the
threat of snow for northern areas tonight and cool Friday morning

The next slider is making its way down this afternoon with a
decent band of precipitation across Southern Oregon into Southwest
Idaho. As this band progresses south, the forcing with the wave
gradually weakens. Still, there is enough moisture and forcing for
the band to hold together well enough through Susanville, Gerlach
and Grass Valley (south of Winnemucca) with around an inch of
snow. As it moves south of there, the band is expected to break up
and become more isolated by the time it hits Tahoe and the Sierra
Front. The morning commute will be slick for northern areas, but
Reno-Tahoe are not expected to see a repeat of Monday morning.

Behind the front Thursday, northeast winds and cold advection will
cool temps back a few degrees below average. This will be followed
by another cold night Thursday night. Gradual warming is expected
Saturday under the northwest flow aloft. The next wave on Friday
afternoon will stay well to the north and east.

Saturday will be the warmest day of the forecast (and possibly the
rest of the month) with winds aloft becoming more west and a
little better mixing for temps rising a few degrees above average.
Then, the next cold front approaches Saturday night with
increasing winds. Winds will be spotty in the lower valleys, but
winds prone areas and ridges are likely to be quite gusty
overnight. This is another slider system with the moisture post-
frontal and thus it will remain confined to areas near the Oregon
Border Saturday night. X


VFR conditions near and south of I-80 for the next 48 hours. Some
gusty W-SW winds at the terminals through 06Z this evening with
peak gusts to 30 kts and some mtn wave turbulence. IFR conditions
for 1-2 hours north of KSVE-KLOL as a band of -SN moves south,
with timing best between 02-06Z. This band will break up before
it reaches KTRK-KRNO. Winds on Thursday to be more NE, but
generally light except over the Sierra ridges. X


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Lake Tahoe
     in NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Lake Tahoe
     in CAZ072.



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